Testing the Effects of Disaster Frequency on Moth's Genotypes

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Testing the Effects of Disaster Frequency on Moth's Genotypes

Weather alters life. Modern day man has been both purposely and accidentally altering the basic weather patterns and physiology of our planet by producing pollution, killing or altering natural resources, deforestation, and of course global warming. For example, industrial smog has been discovered everywhere over the oceans which may be creating distorted weather patterns that some climatologists have called 'climate death.' We do not yet fully understand if clearing forests will cause tornadoes or more rainy seasons somewhere on the planet. But, I do know that if the weather was to have an increase in events such as increased rainy or stormy cycles with increases in the tornado occurrences, natural life would be affected.

The reason I know is because of a series of experiments I conducted that assessed the damage increased levels of bad weather would have on moth genotypes. The true purpose of the experiments was to study characteristics that could lead to the extinction of particular moth genotypes or populations. As it turned out, weather patterns were a viable source that could lead to extinction. The key to these experiments is to understand that they are just predictions. "Imagine an ecologist trying to understand the ebb and flow of a particular population in a particular ecological niche. He might explain his efforts thus: "Here's an equation; here's a variable representing reproductive rate; here's a variable representing the natural death rate; here's a variable representing the additional death rate from starvation or predation; and look -- the population will rise at this rate until it reaches this level of equilibrium." (Albert)

Introduction

This report discusses the results of my biology experiments conducted on the Biology Online simulation Lab "Population Genetics Lab." The objective of this series of research was to answer if weather disasters...

This research was important because I believe that it is important to understand how the weather, especially rain storms and/or tornadoes, effect moth's genotype's becoming extinct over generations. An underlying goal was to better my understanding of the natural world through observation and the scientific method. The process entailed forming a hypothesis, designing an experiment, controlling the variables, collecting variables and interpreting data. The series of experiments therefore were based on the hypothesis:
Hypotheses 1: If 98% of the 28 day cycle of weather is either rain storms and/or tornadoes, a moth genotype would become extinct over a 100-year generation.

Methods and Materials

Utilizing the "Population Genetic Lab" available in Biology 1409 through Professor Brian Earle on March 10, 2005 between 2:00 PM and 2:30 PM, I conducted five experiments on my home computer. The input summary consisted of an initial Genotype Ratio of 25% black moths, 50% brown moths and 25% white moths. Five experiments where run using a 100 generation time span.

The tree frequency was 1/3 for the black, brown and white trees frequencies

Stand carrying capacity was set at 4000 with 1 'number of stands'

Migration was set at 0 and mating patterns at random

Disaster Frequency was set to 'often' (Note: This was the only change from the standard settings because 'Never' is the default.)

PopGenLab Input Summary

Parameter Name

Parameter Value

Black Moth Frequency

25%

Brown Moth Frequency

50%

White Moth Frequency

25%

Black Tree Frequency

1/3

Brown Tree Frequency

1/3

White Tree Frequency

1/3

Stand Carrying Capacity

Number of Stands

1

Migration Rate

0%

Mating Pattern

Completely Random

Disaster Frequency

Often

Experiment 1: The 28 day cycle…