2008 Democratic Primary: Clinton vs. Obama Explained

Clinton's Early Lead and Obama's Surge

All the pre-primary polling in 2006 and 2007 showed that the nomination was Hillary Clinton's to lose. She usually led Barack Obama by over twenty points, and by as much as 51% to 21% in one 2007 Gallup poll. At that time, 82% of Democrats viewed her favorably compared to 70% for Obama, and women, blacks, Southern whites, the working class, and low-income voters all favored her overwhelmingly (Newport et al., 223). Somehow she managed to lose that lead, and supporters, opponents, and pundits have all speculated about what went wrong with her campaign. Essentially, in a climate of economic downturn, massive discontent, and a generational reform wave not seen in the United States since the 1960s, Obama managed to attract enough of the Democratic base to secure the nomination — particularly younger, more educated, and minority voters. Obama proved to be a far more charismatic and inspirational candidate for these voters. Although Clinton could claim more experience in foreign and domestic policy and a greater ability to deal with problems like two ongoing wars and the worst recession since the 1930s, in the end she simply could not match Obama's compelling public persona.

From 2004 onward, Hillary Clinton was widely expected to be the Democratic nominee, and the Obama surge — led by campaign managers David Plouffe and David Axelrod — came as quite a shock to her campaign. Beyond firing her chief strategist after a string of primary and caucus defeats, the Clinton campaign took a very ugly and unexpected turn by appealing openly to white voters in racial terms: questioning whether Obama was born in the United States, attacking his patriotism, targeting the pastor of his Chicago church, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, and even suggesting he was born in Kenya. Right-wing pundits and politicians picked up these attacks and used them continually against Obama from the 2008 election onward. These thinly veiled racial attacks were not enough to save the Clinton nomination, however, nor was the McCain campaign in November.

Works Cited

Appelman, Eric (ed). The Race for the 2008 Political Nomination: A Book of Editorial Cartoons. Pelican, 2008.

Balz, Daniel J. and Haynes Johnson. The Battle for America 2008: The Story of an Extraordinary Election. Viking, 2009.

Logan, Enid Lynette. "At This Defining Moment": Barack Obama's Presidential Candidacy. New York University Press, 2011.

McMahon, Kevin J. et al. Winning the White House 2008. Palgrave MacMillan, 2008.

Newport, Frank et al. Winning the White House 2008: The Gallup Poll, Public Opinion and the Presidency. Infobase Publishers, 2009.