Arab Spring, Civil War, and Western Military Intervention

Western Military Disengagement and the Rise of the Arab Spring

The era of Western military intervention in Arab and Islamic countries appeared to have come to an end by early 2010, following the embarrassment suffered by the United States and its Western allies in Iraq and Afghanistan. That embarrassment forced these countries to seek ways of disengaging from their existing commitments in the Arab and Muslim world, at a time when strong public opinion was firmly against any new intervention. As the United States and its allies pursued disengagement, however, a major upheaval swept the Arab world in late 2010 — an event commonly known as the Arab Spring. This turmoil shifted the trend and rekindled concerns about the need for external Western military engagement in the region as part of the international agenda.

The Arab Spring emerged when uprisings against existing dictatorial regimes encountered military force deployed by those regimes in attempts to suppress the protests (Brom, n.d.). As a result, conflicts developed into a more dangerous stage, escalating into long-lasting civil wars between different elements of the population. The probability of a conflict escalating to this phase is typically a characteristic of societies divided along tribal, ethnic, or religious lines, or some combination of these characteristics.

From Protests to Civil War: How Uprisings Escalate

During this process, military forces loyal to the regime unite with sectors that support the dictatorial government to fight opposing forces. This dynamic contributes to the emergence of a civil war, which is particularly ugly in nature because the regulations of international law governing armed combat are frequently disregarded. Furthermore, the general public becomes the main target of the warring parties. In some cases, there are fears that a civil war may spread into neighboring countries and harm the interests of external players. Intervention by external military forces — whether regional or extra-regional — is therefore considered a necessary measure for stopping civil wars and mitigating their negative impacts. In cases where a conflict is resolved quickly through suppression of the opposing protests or through the overthrow of the dictatorial regime, the question of external military intervention becomes unnecessary.

The rise of forces opposing existing dictatorial regimes in Arab and Muslim countries has commonly been referred to as the Arab Spring. It was primarily a series of protests and uprisings across the Middle East region, with its origins traced to events in Tunisia in late 2010. As these protests spread to other countries in the region, they brought down several governments in some Arab countries while generating mass violence in others. Some governments in the Middle East, however, successfully delayed instability through a combination of repression, state assistance, and promises of reform (Manfreda, n.d.).

Tunisia is regarded as the birthplace of the Arab Spring because of the nationwide protests that erupted in December 2010 following the self-immolation of a local vendor, Mohammed Bouazizi, in response to injustices suffered at the hands of local law enforcement personnel. These countrywide protests were directed primarily at corruption and the repressive policies of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali's regime. The protests forced Ben Ali to flee the country in January 2011, after the armed forces refused to suppress the demonstrations and opposition continued to grow.

These protests were soon followed by events in Egypt that contributed to the end of President Hosni Mubarak's reign. While the Tunisian events are widely regarded as the genesis of the Arab Spring, the decisive moment that transformed the Middle East forever was the fall of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. The Egyptian uprising proved pivotal because Mubarak had been the key Arab ally of Western countries since 1980. Protests against his regime began in January 2011 and forced his resignation less than one month later, after the military refused to intervene against the masses gathered at Tahrir Square in Cairo.

Origins and Spread of the Arab Spring

After President Mubarak's fall, governments and protestors throughout the Middle East were shocked by what had occurred in Tunisia and Egypt. The Tunisian protests had contributed to the end of an extremely secularist regime that had enforced unusually oppressive control over its citizens for several decades. The events in Egypt, by contrast, resulted in the end of decades of protests and challenge that ultimately broke the power of an arrogant regime that had recaptured complete control of its turbulent population (Lynch, 2012, p. 104).

The impact of the uprisings on the Middle East region was immediate and direct — anything seemed possible at that moment. The region experienced a tsunami of protests from disgruntled publics who took to the streets in opposition to the policies and practices of existing regimes. Attempts to explain each country's situation as uniquely different were quickly undercut by the fact that these mass protests were modeled on the Tahrir Square demonstration in Cairo.

The simultaneity and scale of the protests that followed the Tunisian and Egyptian events transformed very different local grievances into a unified Arab uprising. Frustrated and discontented citizens took to the streets in various Arab and Muslim countries, inspired by the opposition movements that had toppled Ben Ali and Mubarak. Many of these citizens had never believed change was possible until they witnessed those shocking events. Notably, Arab protest movements observed, supported, and imitated each other over time.

Other Arab countries marked by civil protests following Tunisia and Egypt include Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, Syria, Morocco, and Jordan. The waves of protest in Jordan, Morocco, Syria, and Bahrain were fueled by the successes in North Africa as well as similar demographic realities, demands for better political representation, and failures of state policy. Despite being driven by these factors, the protests ultimately failed to effect regime change in their respective territories (Dodge, n.d.).

Intervention in a civil war characterized by protests against an existing regime requires military action either by national, regional, or extra-regional forces. Since the beginning of the Arab uprising, there were several distinct incidents of direct external military intervention in the Middle East region. Two entirely different cases of armed intervention occurred in Libya and Bahrain — on behalf of the rebels in the former, and on behalf of the regime in the latter. Generally, it appears that the goals of each respective intervention were accomplished, despite being entirely different in nature.

External military intervention carried out on behalf of rebels aims to help end an existing dictatorial regime. This type of intervention is typically characterized by the fairly rapid toppling of the existing government, which eventually leads to the success of the rebellion and the achievement of protest objectives. In contrast, direct external military intervention carried out on behalf of the regime is typically characterized by the suppression of emerging opposition forces and civil protests. Since the objectives of the rebellion are not achieved, this form of intervention reinforces the survival of the existing regime.

For external parties to use direct military intervention to help stop a civil war in a foreign country, several factors are critically considered. First, these parties examine humanitarian conditions in the region in order to prevent atrocities and harm to innocent civilians. Such humanitarian considerations typically exert significant influence on public opinion. Second, external parties assess strategic conditions when contemplating intervention. Key elements of strategic consideration include the cost of necessary actions and the likelihood of achieving the intervention's objectives.

During the process of identifying the most appropriate course of intervention based on the above considerations, international and regional initiatives play a crucial part in shaping the trajectory of a conflict. International influence and intervention appear not only to heighten the intensity of a conflict but also to reduce its costs in terms of casualties and destruction (Bhardwaj, n.d.).

Conclusion

Manfreda, Primoz. "Arab Spring Uprisings." About.com — Middle East Issues. Accessed May 7, 2013.