Spread of ISIS and Transnational Terrorism: Threats & Strategy

Introduction

The massacres in the Brussels attack and the San Bernardino and Paris attacks were horrific. They are reminders of the sophisticated threats the world faces from transnational terrorist groups. The attacks are also a call to action in the ongoing fight against terrorism and add urgency to analyzing the threats and the measures needed to counter both local and transnational terrorist organizations (United States, 2018). ISIS is the most urgent security threat worldwide. The terrorist group has taken advantage of the Syrian conflict and Iraq's sectarian tensions to spread across both nations, penetrating the heart of the Middle East. The group makes use of both insurgent and terrorist strategies to seize and govern its territory.

ISIS uses these same tactics to secure the allegiance of allied North African and Middle Eastern terrorist groups. Its sanctuary allows it to recruit and train fighters and to launch attacks on external territories — as seen in Europe. That sanctuary also enables ISIS to incite assailants around the globe. The group has recruited thousands of militants from the Middle East and surrounding regions to join its regional fight (United States, 2018). ISIS also uses propaganda campaigns to radicalize youth in the West.

Similarly, al-Qaeda and its affiliate terrorist groups continue to pose a worldwide threat and maintain the capacity and intent to launch attacks in the West. This paper examines the nature of the terrorist threat that ISIS and other transnational terrorist groups pose, focusing on the spread of ISIS, and discusses strategies to degrade and defeat these militia groups (United States, 2018).

The Spread of ISIS

ISIS has its roots in Iraq. Abu Mus'ab al-Zarqawi, a veteran Sunni terrorist, founded the group in 2004, pledging allegiance to Osama bin Laden. At that time, the organization — then called Al-Qaeda in Iraq — targeted U.S. forces and civilians to pressure the United States and other nations to exit Iraq (Unknown & 3M Company, 2011). The group gained a reputation for tyranny and brutality. It continued to target and repress Iraqi Sunni civilians in 2007, provoking a widespread counterattack known as the Sunni Awakening. During this period, an increase in counterterrorism operations also prevented ISIS from carrying out planned attacks and led to a decline in terrorist activity. The U.S. and its coalition forces, including Iraq, were behind these counterterrorism operations (United States, 2018).

The terrorist group began to reconstitute itself in 2011 amid the Syrian civil war and growing Sunni discontent. ISIS launched approximately 5 to 10 suicide attacks per month in Iraq in 2012; by 2013, that number had grown to 30 to 40 per month. The group took advantage of the chaos in Syria to strengthen its Iraqi presence and spread across the border. The al-Nusrah Front was established to cover ISIS operations in Syria (United States, 2018). In April 2013, however, ISIS publicly declared its presence in Syria. Al-Nusrah's leaders immediately rejected the announcement and pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda instead. In February 2014, al-Qaeda formally announced that ISIS was no longer an allied group.

During this same period, ISIS worked aggressively to wrest control of important territory from the Syrian and Iraqi governments. By January 2014, ISIS had seized Raqqa in Syria and Fallujah in Iraq (Unknown & 3M Company, 2011). The group then moved from its Syrian haven and spread across Iraq's northern regions. In June 2014, it killed thousands of Iraqi Sunni Muslims and Shia to seize Mosul, gaining significant equipment, weaponry, territory, and financial resources in the process. In the summer of 2014, the group declared the creation of an "Islamic State" — an Islamic caliphate — and called on all Muslims worldwide to support it and its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (United States, 2018).

Three Drivers of ISIS's Rise

Three major factors account for the rise and successful spread of ISIS. First, the group exploited the Syrian civil war and the lack of security in northern Iraq to establish a haven. Assad's brutal suppression of the Syrian people drew foreign fighters and extremists into the country, while the withdrawal of security forces in western Iraq left vast areas ungoverned. ISIS created sanctuaries in these regions and used them to collect resources and coordinate fighters with minimal interference (Mendelsohn, 2016). The absence of border security allowed ISIS to move supplies and recruits freely across the Iraq–Syria border within its seized territories.

Second, ISIS has demonstrated an ability to fight effectively. The group employs hit-and-run tactics, terrorist operations, and paramilitary assaults, which explains its rapid gains on the battlefield. These advances, in turn, encouraged other Sunni insurgents to join forces with ISIS, helping it seize and hold territory (Sageman, 2008). Sunnis in Syria and Iraq had been sidelined politically for years and had few outlets for their grievances, making them a receptive recruitment pool for the group. Although the U.S.-led military coalition has slowed ISIS's momentum and reversed many of its territorial gains since September 2014, the group has continued to deploy its strategies despite ongoing coalition airstrikes (Mendelsohn, 2016).

Third, ISIS perceives itself as the new leader of global jihad, which has driven it to develop an unprecedented global communications capability. Unlike any previous terrorist group, ISIS runs a highly sophisticated propaganda machine, distributing timely, high-quality media content across diverse platforms — including social media — to amass followers worldwide. The group publicizes its military capabilities, battlefield victories, and executions of captured soldiers across multiple media channels (Sageman, 2008).

Conclusion

Terrorist attacks in the U.S. and Europe are wake-up calls for continued focus on ISIS and the broader transnational terrorism threat. The ability of ISIS and allied groups to adapt and evade existing security defenses — launching attacks and carrying out violent acts across the globe — cannot be overlooked. No terrorist group, however, is invincible. With unity, strength, and adherence to core democratic values, and with American leadership at the center of the international effort, ISIS and transnational terrorism can be confronted, degraded, and ultimately defeated. The lessons of endurance learned after 9/11 demonstrate that terrorist organizations can be overcome. Based on the milestones achieved so far, it is clear that addressing the threat posed by ISIS has required — and will continue to require — serious and sustained military action in Iraq and Syria alongside robust diplomatic and counterterrorism efforts.

References

Mendelsohn, B. (2016). The al-Qaeda franchise: The expansion of al-Qaeda and its consequences.

Sageman, M. (2008). Leaderless jihad: Terror networks in the twenty-first century. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.

United States. (2018). The spread of ISIS and transnational terrorism, S.HRG. 114-776, April 12, 2016, 114-2. S.l: s.n.

United States. (2018). The spread of ISIS and transnational terrorism: Hearing before the Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate, One Hundred Fourteenth Congress, second session, April 12, 2016.

Unknown, & 3M Company. (2011). The 9/11 Commission Report: Final report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States (Authorized ed.). W.W. Norton & Company.