Youth Bulge and National Security in Nigeria: An Analysis

Introduction

The phenomenon of the youth bulge is common in most developing countries. It results from a stage of development where a country successfully reduces infant mortality while fertility rates remain high, causing a large fraction of the population to comprise children and young adults (Inayatullah, 2016). The youth bulge carries both opportunities and risks. A demographic dividend can be obtained when a country's expanded youth cohort enters the labor market and contributes to socio-economic development.

This transition has been successfully managed in some now-developed economies. In several East Asian economies, the youth bulge was converted into a demographic dividend. For example, over the last half century, the Republic of Korea reduced its dependency ratio from approximately 85% in 1970 to about 39.5% in 2020 (Lin, 2012; Sanderson, 2020). Alongside dramatic GDP growth and sharp rises in average wages, youth unemployment in South Korea has often fallen below 12% or into single digits in recent years. A similar pattern holds for China, where economic reforms since the late 1970s created millions of new jobs by shifting young workers from less productive agricultural roles to more productive manufacturing positions (Lin, 2012).

The youth bulge has, however, been a major challenge in other regions, particularly the Middle East, Africa, and South America. In Africa, almost 60% of the population is aged 25 and below, making it the youngest continent on the planet (Ude, 2020). Despite recent high economic growth rates, youth unemployment remains more than double that of adults, even without accounting for the high degree of participation in the informal economy.

The lack of access to formal employment makes the current situation of a rapidly growing youth population potentially volatile if policymakers fail to respond appropriately. For example, limited economic opportunities contributed significantly to the Arab Spring protests, and the potential for similar unrest is increasingly apparent across sub-Saharan Africa. Many young people are compelled into underemployment or the informal economy because, despite being educated, they cannot find meaningful work in the formal sector. The mismatch between available skills and labor market needs further exacerbates this problem.

If youth unemployment and insecurity were treated as global currencies, they would be among the most viral and consequential in Nigeria. Although the ethnic groups that make up Nigeria have histories stretching back to ancient times, Nigeria itself is a relatively young country, founded by the United Kingdom in 1914 and gaining independence in 1960. The year 1960 thus serves as the starting point for this analysis. Because Nigeria does not exist in isolation, it is frequently referenced and compared to other countries in similar circumstances.

The rise of various forms of violent conflict in sub-Saharan Africa has prompted scholars and policymakers to examine the relationship between demographics, peace, and security. In Nigeria, national security has deteriorated in recent years, with increasing domestic and cross-border challenges. These include the Boko Haram uprising in the northeast, Niger Delta militants, piracy and oil bunkering in the South-South region, Biafra separatists in the Southeast, national kidnappings, armed robbery, violent crime, ethnic and religious crises, election violence across the country, and widespread herder-farmer conflicts in the Central Belt, Southeast, and parts of the Northeast (Kalagbor & Harry, 2018; Sakor, 2020). Terrorist attacks have risen devastatingly, with terrorism-related casualties quintupling since 2016 (Sakor, 2020). This situation is compounded by deteriorating environmental conditions, poor governance, and large numbers of immigrants from other sub-Saharan African countries.

Statement of the Problem

Of the approximately 6 million Nigerians who complete their education each year, only about 10% enter paid employment — meaning roughly 4.5 million people join a labor market already characterized by unemployment, low-wage work, and social exclusion (Osakwe, 2013). Since the Arab Spring of 2011, commentators have identified sub-Saharan Africa as a potential next stop for political uprisings (Agbor, Taiwo & Smith, 2012). This concern reflects the growing number of educated youth confronting rising unemployment and limited political space. While such uprisings have not yet spread to sub-Saharan Africa, young people in the region represent a potential source of instability. Most of the young population remains unemployed, and their economic situation is deteriorating due to rising fuel and food costs (Osakwe, 2013).

Even in the absence of full-scale revolts, youth unemployment imposes enormous costs on society through lost growth potential and increased crime. The continued rise of the youth bulge alongside declining formal employment opportunities generates deep frustration among Nigeria's young people. Moreover, the presence of terror organizations such as Boko Haram and various criminal networks provides an outlet for that frustration, posing a direct and growing threat to Nigeria's national security.

Research Objectives and Questions

Nigeria is currently the most populous country in Africa. Based on 2020 estimates, it has approximately 206 million people (Varrella, 2021), of whom about 62% are below the age of 25. According to 2019 estimates, 17.69% of youth are unemployed (O'Neill, 2021) — a figure that does not account for the underemployed or for job losses caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Alongside these statistics, the increasing incidence of crime in Nigeria, the persistent threat posed by Boko Haram, and the continued attempts by young Nigerians to migrate illegally to Europe via Libya — despite the life-threatening risks of that journey — all motivated the formation of this research topic. The purpose of this study is to determine how the youth bulge is affecting Nigeria's national security.

The primary objective of the paper is to determine the national security challenges attributable to the youth bulge. In addition, the paper seeks to determine:

To achieve these objectives, the study will seek to answer the following questions:

Literature Review

Leahy and colleagues (2008) identify a strong correlation between countries prone to domestic strife and countries experiencing a growing youth population. Social scientists argue that this phenomenon can destabilize developing countries — a view that has influenced U.S. foreign policy (Beehner, 2007). The central argument is that societies with a rapidly growing young population tend to produce a large pool of dissatisfied, unemployed young people who are vulnerable to recruitment by rebel groups and terrorist organizations. This dynamic is especially pronounced in countries with weak political systems.

Between 1970 and 1999, 80% of civil wars occurred in countries where more than 60% of the population was under 30 (Leahy et al., 2008). Between 2000 and 2010, there were 67 countries with youth bulges, 60 of which experienced social unrest and violence. Demographers are quick to note that youth bulges do not fully explain these conflicts — corruption, ethnic and religious tensions, poverty, and weak governance all play roles. However, the consistent co-occurrence of these factors in high-youth-bulge nations is unlikely to be coincidental.

Historical evidence supports this pattern. Beehner (2007) argues that in 18th-century France, population growth drove up food demand, fueled inflation, reduced purchasing power, and triggered social unrest. Some historians have also suggested that the large youth populations of early 20th-century Europe — particularly on the Balkan Peninsula around 1914 — contributed to the conditions that precipitated World War I. Others point to the demographic pressures that partly explain Japan's invasion of China in the 1930s, while the Marxist insurgencies in Latin America during the 1970s and 1980s are linked to high numbers of unemployed young men in the region.

In their investigation of youth empowerment programs and the economic implications of the youth bulge in Nigeria, Dele and Ukeaja (2018) identified the challenges faced by typical Nigerian youth and the various opportunities for investment in youth development. They enumerate challenges including youth unemployment, limited access to education, lack of financial opportunities, high HIV prevalence, and high poverty rates. Their findings conclude that if these challenges are not addressed, development will be further compromised as the youth population grows, and a high youth bulge will create a favorable environment for activities that undermine national security.