Youth Bulge and National Security in Nigeria: An Analysis

Introduction

The phenomenon of the youth bulge is common in most developing countries. It results from a stage of development where a country successfully reduces infant mortality while fertility rates remain high, causing a large fraction of the population to comprise children and young adults (Inayatullah, 2016). The youth bulge carries both opportunities and risks. A demographic dividend can be obtained when a country's expanded youth cohort enters the labor market and contributes to socio-economic development.

This transition has been successfully managed in some now-developed economies. In several East Asian economies, the youth bulge was converted into a demographic dividend. For example, over the last half century, the Republic of Korea reduced its dependency ratio from approximately 85% in 1970 to about 39.5% in 2020 (Lin, 2012; Sanderson, 2020). Alongside dramatic GDP growth and sharp rises in average wages, youth unemployment in South Korea has often fallen below 12% or into single digits in recent years. A similar pattern holds for China, where economic reforms since the late 1970s created millions of new jobs by shifting young workers from less productive agricultural roles to more productive manufacturing positions (Lin, 2012).

The youth bulge has, however, been a major challenge in other regions, particularly the Middle East, Africa, and South America. In Africa, almost 60% of the population is aged 25 and below, making it the youngest continent on the planet (Ude, 2020). Despite recent high economic growth rates, youth unemployment remains more than double that of adults, even without accounting for the high degree of participation in the informal economy.

The lack of access to formal employment makes the current situation of a rapidly growing youth population potentially volatile if policymakers fail to respond appropriately. For example, limited economic opportunities contributed significantly to the Arab Spring protests, and the potential for similar unrest is increasingly apparent across sub-Saharan Africa. Many young people are compelled into underemployment or the informal economy because, despite being educated, they cannot find meaningful work in the formal sector. The mismatch between available skills and labor market needs further exacerbates this problem.

If youth unemployment and insecurity were treated as global currencies, they would be among the most viral and consequential in Nigeria. Although the ethnic groups that make up Nigeria have histories stretching back to ancient times, Nigeria itself is a relatively young country, founded by the United Kingdom in 1914 and gaining independence in 1960. The year 1960 thus serves as the starting point for this analysis. Because Nigeria does not exist in isolation, it is frequently referenced and compared to other countries in similar circumstances.

The rise of various forms of violent conflict in sub-Saharan Africa has prompted scholars and policymakers to examine the relationship between demographics, peace, and security. In Nigeria, national security has deteriorated in recent years, with increasing domestic and cross-border challenges. These include the Boko Haram uprising in the northeast, Niger Delta militants, piracy and oil bunkering in the South-South region, Biafra separatists in the Southeast, national kidnappings, armed robbery, violent crime, ethnic and religious crises, election violence across the country, and widespread herder-farmer conflicts in the Central Belt, Southeast, and parts of the Northeast (Kalagbor & Harry, 2018; Sakor, 2020). Terrorist attacks have risen devastatingly, with terrorism-related casualties quintupling since 2016 (Sakor, 2020). This situation is compounded by deteriorating environmental conditions, poor governance, and large numbers of immigrants from other sub-Saharan African countries.