Statistics and Econometrics
ID- 4119L
2011/12 LEVEL
STATISTICS AND ECONOMETRICS
Present your data in a table showing the names of the variables. Make sure the full definitions and sources of each variable are given.
Birth Rates: (thousands)
Quarter1 (Q1)
Quarter2 (Q2)
Quarter3 (Q3)
Quarter4 (Q4)
GDP per capita (GDP)
The GDP data used was from http://earthtrends.wri.org/text/economics-business/variable-638.html in the table Economics, Business, and the Environment -- GDP: GDP per capita, current U.S. dollars
Current U.S.$ per person
GDP
The equation to be estimated is:
BRi = b0 + b1 GDPi+ ui (i)
(i) In terms of the literature on demand for children, what would you expect to find for the coefficient on b1 ?
is expected to have a negative value. There is...
Generally, as the GDP per capita increases, the birth rate decreases [James M. 2009].
Explain how you would modify the model, implied by this equation, if there is an 'Engel curve' relationship in the demand for children.
For an Engel curve the income becomes dependent variable and plotted in the Y-axis and the service or good demanded becomes the independent variable and plotted on the X-axis [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Engel_curve]. The model would change as follows:
GDPi = b0 + b1 BRi+ ui (ii)
(iii) Why is there a constant term in the equation with no variable attached?
The constant term b0 with no variable attached to it, gives the baseline Birth Rate, that is the Birth Rate when GDP is zero and GDP has no effect on Birth Rate.
(iv) Why do these types of equations have a 'u' term?
The term ui called the error term, is used to cater for the variation in the actual model and the fitted model.
3. Estimate equation (i) by OLS and present the results in a suitable table
Estimation by OLS
Dependent variable: Birthrate
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-ratio p-value const
9.86976
0.343927
28.6973
REFERENCE LIST
Birth rates in the U.S., accessed 19 Apr 2012 <http://www.birthrate.net/2008/02/04/factors-affecting-birth-rate/
Economics, Business, and the Environment -- GDP: GDP per capita, current U.S. dollars, accessed 18 Apr 2012
< http://earthtrends.wri.org/text/economics-business/variable-638.html>
Engel's law, accessed 19 Apr 2012 <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Engel%27s_law>
James M. March 8, 2009 Society - GDP vs. Birthrate of a Country, accessed 19 Apr 2012 <http://www.socyberty.com/society/gdp-vs.-birthrate-of-a-country>
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