Bali Crisis Care Plan for Mount Agung

Background and General Information

The world watches while Mount Agung slowly erupts on the island of Bali, emitting plumes of smoke, ash, and steam, even resulting in some cold lava flows (Tambini, 2017). While the images are certainly impressive, if Agung fully erupts, the results could be disastrous. According to latest news stories from the Indonesian island, about 67,000 residents have already been evacuated, with tens of thousands more on alert (Tambini, 2017). The Mt. Agung evacuation zone has been established a minimum of nine kilometers from the volcano A total of 100,000 people will be immediately affected with long-term consequences like the decimation of entire villages.
In addition to the displacement of people and obvious immediate humanitarian and financial crisis, the eruption of the volcano means loss of tourism dollars for Indonesia’s most important and lucrative destination. Although the mountain is not located in the prime tourist zone, international flights to Bali have been canceled, and many tourists have already left. Tourism is the basis of the Balinese economy, which is already taking a hit from the volcano even though Mount Agung is located more than 70 kilometers from the main tourism areas (“Indonesia: Volcanic Eruption Mt Agung Emergency Plan of Action (EPoA) Operation n° MDRID012,” n.d.). Therefore, a crisis care plan should be sensitive to the need for providing the means of quickly rebuilding the tourism infrastructure and developing an accurate public relations plan.
The eruption started 22 Sept 2017. Since then, the threat levels have increased until the maximum level, due to an increase in seismic activity. The current threat level is Red alert—the highest level possible for a volcano (“Indonesia: Volcanic Eruption Mt Agung Emergency Plan of Action (EPoA) Operation n° MDRID012,” n.d.). Multiple agencies are working together for crisis management, including Indonesian federal authorities, the Department of Meteorology, Climate, and Geophysics, the National Disaster Management Agency, and the Indonesian Red Cross (“Indonesia: Volcanic Eruption Mt Agung Emergency Plan of Action (EPoA) Operation n° MDRID012,” n.d.). The American Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) also works in conjunction with Indonesia’s Center for Volcanology and Geologic Hazard Mitigation (Pallister, 2015).
Summary: Immediate Plan of Action
1. The Importance of Strategic Partnerships
The approach being taken to mitigate the crisis has been effective so far. Mount Agung has erupted in the past, the last time being in 1963, and 2000 people died (Gibbens, 2017). Since then, the Indonesian government has vastly improved its disaster readiness and preparedness. Indonesia is squarely within the “ring of fire,” one of the earth’s prime seismic zones. As many as 160,000 people overall have died as a result of volcanoes in Indonesia alone (Gibbons, 2017). Armed with knowledge about the links between seismic activity and eruptions, and with improved monitoring technology, Indonesia is more capable now than ever before to manage a crisis of Agung’s current scope. A broad network between Indonesian government agencies, international aid organizations, and science organizations has helped Indonesia strengthen its crisis management planning already. Pallister (2015) claims that in 2010, strategic partnerships between Indonesia and the VDAP saved between 10,000 and 20,000 lives.
2. Capacity Planning
Capacity planning is one of the most important part of the crisis management plan. Entailing multiple aspects of building resilience, capacity planning also entails preparing civilian and military aviation for how to ensure safe rescue and relief services during and immediately after an eruption (Pallister, 2015). Not only that, aviation officials around the world need to receive improved training for how to fly through the volcanic ash. Pilots from around the world might be required to provide rescue and relief assistance during the eruption, and also, commercial pilots need to be trained in how to mitigate disaster given the sheer numbers of flights to and from Bali or just in the area.
Capacity planning also entails working closely with community leaders in Bali. Communicating the crisis management plan, and delegating responsibility, will help promote resilience and readiness. Capacity planning will also improve public trust, reducing anxiety and alleviating panic during the crisis. Public trust also depends on information sharing, communication transparency, and education. Each crisis/evacuation center needs to be well equipped not just with essentials like water, food, and medical equipment, but also communications devices. Each family should be given an information packet informing them of best practices. Information packets and daily communications will also need to be shared with all communities on the small island of Bali. Responding to the crisis is a collaborative, community effort.
Predict
The most basic, fundamental needs already exist in Bali, such as a community that is well aware of and has prior experience with volcanoes, a collective motivation to respond to the crisis as a community, and a strong legislative framework with institutional support at local, provincial, national, and trans-national levels. Scientific knowledge, scientific monitoring, and warning systems are also firmly in place. Mapping has also been accomplished, with zones of evacuation clearly delineated. The government has also prepared the evacuation centers, with clear evacuation routes and assembly points, Transportation to the shelters is reliable, and there is security in place in the evacuation centers to prevent or mitigate any social problems.
Although all these crucial elements are already in place, there are still a few things that need to be done to benefit the families affected. The first thing is a method of cataloging personal property, which will help the families more easily apply for relief funding. It is predicted that improved inventory of personal belongings will help the families rebuild their communities after the disaster (“Developing a Volcano Emergency Plan,” n.d.). It is also predicted that a more robust inventory management and logistics system be implemented specifically for search, rescue, and medical care. It is predicted that the right information technology using linear programming will help better allocate the limited resources available. It is also predicted that if medical equipment and personnel can be flown into the island now, this will reduce overall costs later.
It is also predicted that thousands of more dollars are needed to secure sufficient numbers of safety equipment like masks and goggles for the people who are not being evacuated. The volcanic ash could leave particulates in the air for some time after the eruption. Depending on weather conditions, ash clouds could travel to areas that are currently unprepared for the air contamination problem. Distributing information packets to all residents of Bali will help inform the people of how they can keep their livestock and other valuables covered to reduce financial loss.
Prevention
Already, the Indonesian Red Cross has begun the process of inventory management and logistical controls, albeit without the aid of linear programming models (“Indonesia: Volcanic Eruption Mt Agung Emergency Plan of Action (EPoA) Operation n° MDRID012,” 2017). Also, the Indonesian Red Cross has been working with local disaster management authorities in Bali to improve community readiness by helping construct additional emergency shelters (“Indonesia: Volcanic Eruption Mt Agung Emergency Plan of Action (EPoA) Operation n° MDRID012,” 2017). As the number of potential evacuees is known with relative precision, constructing shelters now will save lives in the future as the eruption looms. Coordinating with agencies and NGOs is facilitated via strong communication networking; it is strongly recommended that all agencies and stakeholders start using the same media for communication instead of relying on discreet means. Using Slack or some other media portal for communication will help reduce the likelihood for miscommunication, improve coordination of services, and maximize resources.
Information packets should also be distributed to people all around the island of Bali, and not just those who are in the immediate zone of the eruption. Armed with knowledge, the people of Bali will understand how to keep their window and doors shut to prevent air contamination inside the home, and to bring all livestock to a sheltered area for similar reasons. When at all possible, valuable equipment, machinery, and vehicles should be covered now too to minimize financial loss and speed up the recovery process once the crisis has subsided.
Crisis Team
The crisis team is multidisciplinary, from both government and non-governmental organizations. Likewise, formal and informal leaders will comprise the crisis team. The following stakeholder groups have already been identified as comprising the core of the crisis team:
Local Governance:
Balinese community leaders, elected civic officials, spiritual leaders, heads of families
Local governance and leadership offer the most immediate sources of information and support for families and individuals affected by the volcano. These are the people entrusted with the responsibility of looking out for each other, sharing information, distributing goods and services, and offering emotional assistance.
NGO, Relief, and Aid Organizations
Indonesian Red Cross
First responders and aid organizations provide triage during the crisis, immediate medical attention, first aid, transportation to local hospitals, coordination of resources, and logistical planning.
Healthcare
Local hospitals manage their already existing patient load, and patients with issues unrelated to the volcano. It is important to not overburden the hospitals, and only use them for critical care cases. However, hospital administration also needs to open their inventory for use in disaster relief. This is one reason why a fully networked, integrated inventory system using linear programming would be helpful.
Science
The Department of Meteorology, Climate, and Geophysics
Center for Volcanology and Geologic Hazard Mitigation
These are the organizations that conduct the research, monitoring, and alert systems activities.
Indonesian Government
National Disaster Management Agency
The Indonesian government provides the critical financial and human resources to respond to the crisis, and also encompasses communications roles between Bali and other provinces of the country.
Foreign Government
American Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP)
Other governments bolster Indonesia’s readiness to respond to the crisis by providing informational, financial, and technical support.
Private Sector
The private sector may be instrumental in helping rebuild Balinese communities and businesses.
Positioning
With a crisis response plan already in place, the crisis team will reach those in need via existing transportation networks. Only the zone of evacuation is of concern; helicopters will be required to reach any individuals stranded. As long as transportation services and vehicles on Bali are kept under cover, as advised, the ash will not hinder transportation services.
Timeline
The timeline for the crisis intervention plan already begun in September, when Agung first showed signs of erupting this year. Now is the time to reinforce existing shelters, making sure that there are enough beds and resources available for the full 100,000 people that may need to be evacuated. Starting today, masks and protective gear and the information packets should be distributed. Given the small geographic zone of Bali, distribution should only take a day or two. Because critical infrastructure is in place, there are currently no time constraints. However, Doyle, McClure, Paton et al (2014) point out that one of the problems with volcano response in particular is “confusion about the interaction between probabilities and time frames,” meaning nothing should be taken for granted (p. 75).
Communication
Improving the robustness of communication infrastructure will be challenging on Bali, given the relatively undeveloped nature of most of the island. Thus, it is predicted that power outages and telecommunications problems will be an issue that could hamper communications during the crisis. If sufficient resources are available to secure more power generators, these generators should be given first to hospitals and evacuation centers, which would then double as communications hubs. All persons on the island will be encouraged to reach out to friends and family whenever possible, to alleviate anxiety and to identify the needs of people living in remote areas.
Evaluation
The crisis plan will be evaluated in stages, and as an ongoing process of self-reflection. Community leaders are the key for providing input as to the effectiveness of the plan. If the needs of the people are not being met in any way—from insufficient food to insufficient communications, from unclean toilets to lack of emotional support—the community leaders will be the first to know. Therefore, the crisis management team needs to communicate, collaborate, and coordinate their resources on an ongoing basis throughout the remainder of the eruption.








References

American Red Cross (n.d.). Volcano preparedness. http://www.redcross.org/get-help/how-to-prepare-for-emergencies/types-of-emergencies/volcano#Before
“Developing a Volcano Emergency Plan,” (n.d.). http://www.disastersrus.org/emtools/volcano/volcano_emergency_plan.htm
Doyle, E.E.H., McClure, J., Paton, D., et al (2014). Uncertainty and decision making. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 10(A): 75-101.
Gibbens, S. (2017). What you need to know about Bali’s rumbling volcano. National Geographic. 27 Nov, 2017. https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/11/mount-agung-bali-indonesia-eruption-mudflow-spd/
“Indonesia: Volcanic Eruption Mt Agung Emergency Plan of Action (EPoA) Operation n° MDRID012,” (2017). Relief Web. https://reliefweb.int/report/indonesia/indonesia-volcanic-eruption-mt-agung-emergency-plan-action-epoa-operation-n
Pallister, J. (2015). Volcano disaster assistance program. In Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk. Cambridge University Press.
Tambini, J. (2017). Bali volcano eruption latest update: Plume rises from Mount Agung. Express. https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/889441/Bali-volcano-eruption-latest-update-Mount-Agung-news-erupts