Technology and staffing challenges shaping the future of policing

Future of Policing

The objective of this study is to examine the future of policing and specifically the trends that are currently affecting policing policy. This work seeks to answer as to some foreseeable critical issues that may affect policing in the future and what changes may need to be made to effectively address these critical issues.

The work entitled "55 Trends Now Shaping the Future of Policing" (Cetron and Davies,2008) states that in excess of every 100 adults in the U.S. were in prison at the start of 2008, according to a report published by the Pew Center on States analyzing data from the Justice Department" and stated as well is that the prison population had tripled in only three decades reaching 1.6million with 723,000 in local jails. Simultaneously the number of police officers has either not changed or declined. For example stated is that in Boston "here were 1,800 officers a decade ago. Now there are fewer than 1,400. In Ohio, there are 1,500 state troopers, just as there were in the mid-1970s -- "even though we have twenty times the amount of work," notes Jim Roberts, director of the Ohio State Troopers Association. Budgets are tight throughout the country, and layoffs are common." Cetron and Davies,2008)

I. Changes in Policing Methods and Tools

Video camera networks are reported as only one of the "…many high-tech tools that will affect police operations in the years ahead. Nanotech sensors capable of detecting explosives and chemical and biological weapons will be scattered around prime terrorist targets, such as major public gatherings, relaying the location of any possible threat to the local command center." (Cetron and Davies, 2008) It is reported that intelligence analysts who are "…already overwhelmed by the amount of data collected each day, will face a growing torrent of data in the years ahead. As surveillance spreads through society, this will be a problem for police agencies as well. Until automated systems become available to help monitor incoming data, much of the information collected by cameras and other tools will be used more to provide evidence for prosecutions than to prevent or interrupt crimes." (Cetron and Davies,2008) Automated systems will be developed by engineers "…to help "mesh" information from incompatible data stores, recognize patterns in the data, develop rigorous hypotheses, perform collaborative analyses, and "capture" the skills of the most capable analysts for use by others, even when the analysts themselves are not available." (Cetron and Davies,2008) It is additionally reported that these systems will "originate with the intelligence community, but they will eventually spread to law enforcement. They may offer the best chance of giving law enforcement agencies a clear advantage over their adversaries." (Cetron and Davies,2008)

III. Predictive Policing

The work of Ferguson (2012) reports in the work entitled: "Predictive Policing: The Future of Reasonable Suspicion" that predictive policing is "a new law enforcement strategy to reduce crime by predicting criminal activity before it happens. Using sophisticated computer algorithms to forecast future events from past crime patterns, predictive policing has become the centerpiece of a new smart-policing strategy in several major cities. The initial results have been strikingly successful in reducing crime." (Ferguson, 2012) Ferguson (2012) addresses the Fourth Amendment aspects of this innovation in policing policy as it relates to the concept of reasonable suspicion and the "larger constitutional framework of 'prediction' and the Fourth Amendment. According to Ferguson the Fourth Amendment doctrine has as its basis that of prediction since "…Search warrants are predictions that contraband will be found in a particular location. Investigative detentions are predictions that the person is committing, or about to commit, a crime. Fourth Amendment concepts like "probable cause," "reasonable suspicion," informant tips, "drug courier profiles," "high crime areas" and others are based on evaluating levels of probability that criminal activity will occur or is occurring. Predictive policing both fits within this established tradition and challenges it in novel ways. This article concludes that under current Fourth Amendment doctrine predictive policing will have a significant effect on reasonable suspicion analysis, a reality that necessitates a careful understanding of the technology." (Ferguson, 2012)

Summary and Conclusion

The environment of policing along with the methods and tools used in policing are undergoing rapid change and it only follows that policing policy must address these changes. It is likely that the same principles of policing will remain intact however, there is the chance that policing will expand its boundaries resulting ultimately in constitutional rights being at issue in the country's courtroom.