Global terrorism: causes, impacts, and counterterrorism strategies

Terrorist Groups Are Aligning to Conduct Global Terrorism.

Terrorism used to be a topic limited to only certain sectors of the world, such as the Middle East or South Africa. However, in recent years, it appears that no one is safe in any part of the world. A growing number of countries must take measures to protect citizens and visitors from the threat of terrorism. The Unites States is the latest addition to this list. It has become evident in recent years that terrorism is not a localized event any more, but has become an increasing global problem. It has also become obvious that terrorism requires a global solution as well. Evidence has been mounting that terrorist groups are beginning to connect and form alliances. This gives them greater strength and greater resources. It seems that they are finding common ground and are beginning to coordinate efforts. This will be the topic of the proposed research.

The following proposal will be for the conduct of research on the topic of global terrorism. The research will support the thesis that terrorist groups are aligning to conduct major terrorism events on a global basis. The study will be exploratory in nature, primarily through various government reports and reports of Embassy's around the world. The research will explore the number of terrorism incidents, their patterns, the major groups involved, financing connections, and the use of improved communications as a means to coordinate attacks. The research encompasses terrorism data from 1992 through the year 2002. There is significantly more information available in the later years regarding the interconnectivity of terrorist groups.

Terrorist Groups Are Aligning To Conduct Global Terrorism

Terrorist groups have been a part of culture since the beginnings of man. Espionage and Counterespionage have been a popular subject of popular literature since the beginning of time. One only needs to read the Greek Classics, Norse Sagas, or the Tales of Sheherazhad and the Thousand and One Arabian Nights to realize that the idea of using terrorism to control a population is not a new one at all. In the classic tales, terrorism was limited to a few rogue persons who usually had a vendetta against a particular person. In more recent times terrorist groups were thought of as a few people who wished to voice an opinion against a certain other group or idea. These groups were usually small, poorly funded, and consisted of only a few people.

Recently the advent of better communication systems has enabled terrorist groups to utilize this technology to their advantage. In addition they have developed a large infrastructure that supplies them with weapons, training, and the funds needed to operate. Many of these groups are now state funded. These groups still usually only consist of less than a hundred people who usually have a complaint against another group of people for one reason or another. However, there has been a recent trend for these groups to express dissatisfaction over similar issues and to speak against the same topics. These groups have realized that they may have slightly different motivations, but they feel that they have a common enemy. As a result many of these groups have formed alliances and are launching cooperative efforts against certain target groups. They have a solid funding structure, certain countries that are willing to give them safehaven, and are now developing splinter cells in other countries. They now have the communications abilities to launch a concerted attack in multiple locations at the same time via these splinter groups.

Terrorist activities used to be considered to be only a threat in certain regions of the world, such as in the Middle East and South America. This is no longer true. As the world moves towards a global marketplace and a global community, these acts now cross boundaries and lines that they never have done in the past. Terrorist groups are striking out against anyone who is their enemy, or anyone who they feel assists or supports their enemy. This means that their target base is getting larger, This will also mean that it will become increasingly more difficult to trace acts of terrorism to particular groups. For instance, a group may strike out at British Airways carrying key U.S. diplomats and because the attack was not directly at a U.S. target, it may be difficult to pin down suspects or motives. As most terrorist groups wish everyone to know why they did something, it is doubtful whether these indirect attacks will achieve their goals.

Our ability to track these groups has gotten better over the years as well, but so has their ability to evade new technologies, as well. State Departments, Embassies and Intelligence organizations all over the world have massive databases on the activities of these groups. This includes a large electronic journal published online by the U.S. Department of State which highlights and summarizes terrorist activity by year. As one examines the data available, as well as excerpts from some letters obtained, one can begin to see a pattern of more interconnectivity between these groups, a commitment to common goals, and many other signs that lead us to believe that these groups are gaining power and encompass a major threat on a global basis. This will be the subject of the following proposal and subsequent dissertation.

Chapter 1

Introduction

This study will attempt to examine the evidence that supports the motives of the terrorist organizations around the world to conduct terrorism on a global basis. There is a wealth of information available regarding the various terrorist cells and organizations as well as their actions. It will be an exploratory study that will use documents and letters published for public view by various U.S. And global agencies worldwide. The data will be qualitative in nature, as numerical data in this case would merely reflect the incidence and distribution of terrorist activities around the world. Though this information would be interesting, it would hardly serve the purposes of this study.

The ability of this study hinges on many factor, not just the frequency and distribution of these terrorist events. In order to support the existence of a global terrorist effort, the interconnectivity of the various groups, their funding sources and their motives must be examined. The history of the various groups will also be examined to the extent that this information is available. Much of the data will not be available, or may be classified and not available for public knowledge. An honest attempt will be made to obtain as much information as possible. It might be noted that there is more information available in recent years, than for earlier years of this study. This is largely due to the efforts of the U.S. State Department to empower its citizenship with knowledge in order to be better able to identify and report terrorist activity in the United States. The State Department now makes available much information that was once classified. The final form of this report will be in report format detailing and summarizing the data, and evidence supporting the coordination of terrorist groups in achieving global objectives.

Rationale for Study

This study is based on information being released by the State Department to the United States general population that gives in great detail the history of known terrorist organizations, their activities their philosophy and their characteristic habits. These reports do not directly say that these groups are forming a coordinated effort and forming a global effort against their enemies, however, when one reads these reports in detail, the evidence is obvious. This evidence come in the form of statements made by leaders such as Usama Bin-Laden and leader of Libya which would point indirectly a conscious effort by terrorist groups to form alliances.

In addition to extraneous comments by terrorist leaders, certain patterns also begin to emerge in these reports, such as the pattern of attacking less specific, global targets such as UN facilities, the World Trade Towers, and the attempt to stop world relief efforts to the people of Iran. These targets are not country specific as they are places where people from all nations gather for a common goal. It is known that these groups commonly target persons of groups who they feel support their sworn enemies.

In reading the profiles of these groups one will also notice common links between funding sources and philosophies. They also use many of the same training grounds and tactics. These similarities cannot be ignored. This data is readily available to the public but is in the form of very long reports that do not excite and maintain the attention of most persons. In addition, just reading these document straight through does not readily reveal the information, a more thorough examination must be conducted in order to spot these patterns, Therefore many have not considered the data and made the comparisons that will be made in this exploratory study of these lengthy documents. The discovery of these emerging patterns is important for determining the terrorist motives and ultimately for being able to predict their next move. This information will be useful in helping to protect citizens of the world.

Scope of Study

This study will encompass the years 1992 through 2002 and will contain information from as many sources as possible. The sources must be in English or an English translation. The study will utilize as much information from as many countries as possible in order to make comparisons and contrasts between information about the same group from different sources. These contrasts will be analyzed to determine if they have an effect on the validity of the conclusions.

The study will include the activities of as many known terrorist groups as possible. However, it will focus on Middle Eastern groups, primarily these funded and supported by Syria, Libya, Iraq, Iran, in particular those associated with Usama bin-Laden. There are several reasons for this focus; one is that there is a vast amount of information available regarding the activities and connections between these groups. In addition, these groups have a long history of terrorism and are the ones most likely to form a cooperative effort against their sworn enemy, the United States and anyone who supports them.

Other groups in other countries will be examined, primarily to determine if they are connected to the Usama bin-Laden groups, for instance, if they are acting as a foreign cell of his groups. Groups, such as Japanese Aum Shinrikyo that poisoned the Japanese subway tunnel, will be noted, but will not encompass a major portion of this report, as these groups have shown no evidence of coordinating with other groups. The world is filled with hundreds of these small isolated groups. These groups are not the focus of this study.

Thesis and Research Objectives

The exploratory data in this study will support the thesis that terrorist groups, who once functioned independently, are now combining forces in an effort to launch a global assault against common enemies. This research hopes to achieve several objectives. The first is to compile evidence for the formation of a coordinated terrorist effort. The second is to determine their motives for doing so. The Third is to determine how they are funding such an effort. The fourth is to determine how much effect improvements in communications and transportation are in their ability to successfully carry this out.

The final product of this research will be a report that details the findings of this information in a clear format that clearly draws relationships and makes the patterns easy to detect. The final presentation will paint the picture of a global terrorist effort that has never before been seen in the world. It will also discuss various political and social implications of the formation of such a group. It will discuss various models and tactics that may be employed by government entities in order to combat this threat.

It is the ultimate objective of this research to focus on a global problem and to make suggestions that may help to pose global solutions as well. It is expected that the qualitative data found in the available report will support the main thesis of this work. The null hypothesis will state that the data revealed in the various reports will not lead to evidence for the formation of a global terrorist threat. In this case, the information will not be considered valid and the terrorist groups will be determined to be operating independently.

Chapter 2

Review of the Literature

The literature to be used for this dissertation is on an extremely popular topic at the present time. For this reason there is a wealth of information available. However, much of it, especially that found in the media cannot be considered as credible. These articles are largely opinions and not based on facts. Therefore this type of literature will not be considered at all for this study.

The study will draw its information from various official government documents and other such material. It is expected that the majority of literature will be from sources in the United States. However, literature from other world government agencies will be included, where it is available in English or in translation. These sources of information are expected to be the most complete and reliable. They will be the primary sources for this research.

Many of these documents are now available in the form of an electronic journal, to the public, online. Many of the reports can be found here in an online format. Hard copies are available by writing the U.S. State Department. However, the online versions are exact copies of the hard copy and can be considered equally reliable sources of information.

The accuracy of these sources is considered to be authoritative. However, we must remember that they are in the public domain and certain pieces of information may be omitted due to security reasons. We, as the public, have no way of knowing what these pieces of information could be. It is still believed that these pieces of information will not detract from the ability of the research to glean enough information to support the thesis.

Overview of Preliminary Research

Terrorism is politically motivated violence against persons who are not combatants in a conflict. Americans have always been targeted while in other countries, but on September 11, 2001, they also became the direct recipients of terrorist activities. The goal of these activities is to promote a sense of fear and deep insecurity. Terrorists strike those who are not combat ready. The victims are nor trained soldiers, they are ordinary citizens. These attacks often come without warning, in an attempt to invoke the greatest amount of fear (Wilcox, 1996). Terrorism attempts to undermine the citizen's faith in their government's ability to protect them. Terrorists use intimidation as their primary weapon to induce fear in a society.

Terrorists are motivated by ideology, religion, or other ethnic groups in order to overthrow governments and promote their ideas. Sometimes they use terrorism to express anger to rage over an issue. Terrorists are more technologically advanced than in earlier years. The bombs are more compact and efficient. They also have at their disposal cell phones, computers and the latest in encryption software to help them avoid detection (Wilcox, 1996). They can get fake IDs and almost anything else they want of conduct their acts.

Terrorism often has more of the terrorists' intended effect, mostly because of mass media. They wish to express their ideas, and the media gives then the perfect medium to do it. This allows the public to witness the event as if they were there themselves. This greatly increases the effect of fear. Prior to the advent of live television, the event may make the next day's newspaper, or get a brief radio mention, but that is not the same as actually being there. Terrorists use this to their every advantage to exploit our government (Wilcox, 1996).

It has been known for quite some time that Usama bin-Laden is a major financier of terrorism efforts in the Middle East. His primary organizations include HAMAS, The Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine- Genera Command (PFLP-GC). In addition he also provides a safe haven for the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has been fighting for an independent Kurdish state since 1995 (USSD, 1996, online).

Usama bin-Laden is a major source of funding for these groups, but he is not acting alone. Sudan continues to provide a safe haven for Usama bin-Laden and his various groups, including some of the world's most violent groups such as the IG, ANO, Lebanese Hizballah, and HAMAS (USSD, 1996, online). There has not been sufficient evidence that Sudan actively took part in any terrorist activities, but it is aware of the activities of these groups within its borders and promotes their existence (USSD, 1996, online).

These groups target a number of locations all over the world. For instance, the Armed Islamic Group (GIA), and terrorists probably associated with the GIA attempted a series of bombings in France (USDS, 1996a, online). A number of groups split off from the PLO in 1974 including Abu Nidal organization (ANO) a.k.a.: Fatah Revolutionary Council, Arab Revolutionary Council, Arab Revolutionary Brigades, Black September, and Revolutionary Organization of Socialist Muslims (USDS, 1996b, online). Their primary targets include United States, the United Kingdom, France, Israel, moderate Palestinians, the PLO, and various Arab countries (USDS, 1996b, online). Libya and Syria have funded these groups consisting of several hundred people, maximum.

Al-Fatah a.k.a.: Al-'Asifa (see Palestine Liberation Organization), Al-Jihad (see Jihad Group), and Armed Islamic Group (GIA) target a variety of entities including security personnel, government officials, civilians, journalists, teachers, and foreign residents (USDS, 1996b, online). The GIA wishes to overthrow the secular Algerian regime and replace it with an Islamic state (USDS, 1996b, online). Many of these groups are known by several different names in order to make themselves more difficult to track.

The Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP) is also known as the CNPZ (Nestor Paz Zamora Commission under National Liberation Army Bolivia). Each small faction of these groups may only number in the hundreds, but collectively have large memberships (USDS, 1996b, online). Devrimci Sol (Revolutionary Left) a.k.a.: Dev Sol (see Revolutionary People's Liberation Party/Front, DHKP/C), ETA (see Basque Fatherland and Liberty), FARC (see Revolutionary Army Forces of Colombia), Fatah (see Palestine Liberation Organization), FPM (see Morazanist Patriotic Front), FPMR (see Manuel Rodriguez Patriotic Front) and Al-Gama'at al-Islamiyya (The Islamic Group, IG) all represent various names used by an extremist groups who wishes to overthrow the Egyptian President (USDS, 1996b, online). The existence of these groups will undoubtedly make the task of determining the interconnectivity of these groups, as at times they may be the same group, only under a different name. For the most part, these various aliases are known and can be easily tracked and distinguished from a separate group. This could represent a confounding condition. In drawing a conclusion from this research and great care will have to be taken in order not to do so.

HAMAS is the primary group under Usama Bin-laden and it is the activities of this group that will receive the most attention. HAMAS was formed in late 1987 as a splinter from the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. Their goal is to establish an Islamic Palestinian state in place of Israel (USDS, 1996b, online). HAMAS has many funding sources including Israel, Jordan, Iran, private persons in Saudi Arabia, and has fundraising activities in Western Europe and the United States (USDS, 1996b, online).

HAMAS is not associated with the following groups officially. They are not another name for them. However, the following groups have formed with the same basic goal in mind as HAMAS: Hizballah (Party of God) a.k.a.: Islamic Jihad, Revolutionary Justice Organization, Organization of the Oppressed on Earth, and Islamic Jihad for the Liberation of Palestine and Jamaat ul-Fuqra. HAMAS does provide funding for these groups, but they are separate groups and not officially associated with HAMAS (USDS, 1996b, online).

These groups, by far are not the only terrorist groups that will be included in the dissertation, but they are the one, which will be the primary focus. These groups are large and have a common goal. They are heavily funded by Usama bin-Laden and other state supported governments. They provide funding for many other smaller groups and are the primary groups in the Middle Eastern terrorist arena. By tracking these groups we can get an overall view of the system that exists. These groups will add a degree of difficulty to the study as they are very deceptive and one group may go by different names. The government is familiar with these and can provide a wealth of information in sorting out the issue.

The year 1997 saw an increased number of terrorism events directed towards U.S. targets. Most of these happened to U.S. citizens while working abroad. However, there was one incident that occurred on American soil. A gunman climbed the Empire State Building and opened fire on tourists. The victims in this incident were not only Americans, but also included visitors from Argentina, Switzerland, and France. A note attached to his shirt read that this was punishment for against the enemies of Palestine (USDS, 1998a, online). This was the first of such incidents.

The documents to be examined contain hundreds of incidents such as these. These incidents will be the primary source of information for establishing a pattern of both occurrence and coordinated efforts between groups. These cases will be presented in summary format for easy comparison and trend analysis.

There are many countries that do not actively participate in terrorist activities, but who do offer many needed logistics including places to train, ammunition, food and a place to stay. Thy hide them from UN officials and other regulatory groups. This is one of the primary reasons for establishing a connection and a trend towards a concerted terrorist effort (USDS, 1998b, online). Of these Iraq is the most avid supporter of state sponsored terrorism. Libya gives terrorists political asylum and refuses to extradite them for trial (USDS, 1998b, online).

In August of 1996, Usama bin-Laden issued a statement outlining his newly formed Al Qaeda's goals. He wished to, "drive U.S. forces from the Arabian Peninsula, overthrow the Government of Saudi Arabia, "liberate" Muslim holy sites in "Palestine," and support Islamic revolutionary groups around the world" In Fall of 1997, a meeting was held in Tehran including the major members of many terrorist groups such as HAMAS, Lebanese Hizballah, the PIJ, and the Egyptian al-Gama'at al-Islamiya. Participants in this meeting vowed to establish a greater coordination and declared Jihad (holy war) against their enemies (USDS, 1998b, online). In 1997, the World Health Organization in Baghdad was attacked. They also reported that they had infiltrated UN refugee camps (USDS, 1998b, online).

The following trends can also be found. In 1994 Iran sponsored terrorist attacks were less frequent in Western Europe and the Middle East, favored venues of the past. However, they were more frequent in other areas, especially Turkey and Pakistan (OSOCC, 1994, online). Hizballah has also continued its efforts to develop a worldwide terrorist infrastructure (OSOCC, 1994, online).

These incidents in themselves do not offer conclusive evidence of a global terrorism effort. However, many of these incidents appear in the documents to be examined and these will be analyzed and summarized in the final report. One statement by Usama bin-Laden, or a general remark at a meeting is not conclusive, but when these comments are taken as a whole, it is hoped that the big picture will begin to develop in the final dissertation.

In a preliminary literature review it was easy to determine that there was sufficient material available from which to gather data. These sources are credible and will provide the necessary sample selection with which to proceed with the final study. The examples presented here are by far not the only examples. Samples that do not support the thesis will also be tallied. In the end the pieces of data will be tallied to see if there is a significantly higher amount of evidence in favor of a movement towards a global terrorism trend.

The primary purpose in conducting the preliminary literature review was to determine if sufficient data existed on which to base to study. A clear pattern was found, but the sample size was not large enough to represent a larger population. It can be determined from the literature review that sufficient credible data does exist on the subject in the form of Government reports in the public domain. The final dissertation will contain a larger sample size than has been presented in this proposal.

Chapter 3

Methods

This study will be exploratory in nature. However the exploratory data will later be coded to determine if statistically significant differences do exist, indicating a trend towards global terrorism. The study will be conducted in three phases.

The first phase is to locate the information. This will be performed through library and Internet searches. Any material found on the Internet must be an exact reproduction of the original document in order to be used as a sample in this report. Next the information will be coded into two categories. One is positive for global terrorist activities, one is negative for global terrorist activities. These will be taken on an individual basis and the best judgement of the researcher will be used. The literature review contains examples of remarks that would constitute a positive finding for global terrorism such as, "Hizballah has also continued its efforts to develop a worldwide terrorist infrastructure' (OSOCC, 1994, online).

After the incidents are identified in the literature, and coded, they will be divided into columns and statistically analyzed to see if there is a statistical significant difference. A p-value of

Phase two of the research will involve examining the characteristics of the various terrorist organizations for similarities in structure, funding and other qualities that would indicate connection. This information will be summarized in a spreadsheet so that statistical analysis can be used to determine frequency distribution of the various attributes. These will help to spot commonalties, such as a large number of groups with the same funding source, or operations in the same countries. Graphs and charts will be used to show these connections and help to spot the patterns that are expected to emerge. These statistical methods will accomplish the first three research objectives: "The first is to compile evidence for the formation of a coordinated terrorist effort. The second is to determine their motives for doing so. The Third is to determine how they are funding such an effort. These objectives can be accomplished through the use of the prescribed research methods.