PMESII White Paper: U.S. Strategy Toward Pakistan

Introduction

The United States has long been an important partner of Pakistan, providing essential economic and military assistance. However, in recent years the relationship has become strained, due in part to Pakistan's failure to adequately tackle the problem of terrorism within its borders. This paper describes the operating environment in Pakistan, the desired end state and problem frame, and the whole-of-government course of action for the United States — consisting primarily of the provision of essential services, economic and infrastructure investment and development, and regional security. It concludes with an assessment of potential risks.

Description of the Operating Environment

Pakistan has faced many challenges in recent years, including terrorism, economic instability, and environmental problems. However, the country remains an important player in the region and on the global stage. The economy is struggling and unemployment is high. Pakistan also faces significant demographic challenges: over 60% of the population is under the age of 25, and the population is expected to grow to over 400 million by 2050. These pressures are pushing Pakistan closer to China, particularly through participation in China's Belt and Road Initiative and its multipolar development model. This rapidly growing population puts strain on already limited resources and has led to increased social tensions.

Some Pakistani leaders believe that programs such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) will lead to economic growth for both countries while alleviating Pakistan's current energy crisis. This form of cooperation — in which China financially assists a developing country — aligns with China's reputation as an economic actor that enables authoritarian forms of governance. The current interaction between the two countries directly challenges U.S. strategic interests, specifically the goal of resisting autocracy, promoting democracy as essential for meeting the challenges of a changing world, and investing in the development of nations to reduce the likelihood of instability.

Desired End State and Problem Frame

The desired end state for Pakistan is one of stable but complex international relationships, where the country can navigate its own interests while managing the expectations and demands of multiple external actors, while giving primacy of place to the United States. On the military front, Pakistan must possess a strong ability to defend its borders against existential threats while also monitoring internal instability. Internally, demographics should support a large workforce capable of driving economic growth, yet remain self-sufficient so as not to place undue pressure on social services and infrastructure. Pakistani culture should embrace diversity and remain open to Western values, and its international relations should reflect deference to U.S. priorities.

The core problem is that due to social, economic, political, and geopolitical tensions, Pakistan lacks a stable environment that gives primacy to U.S. influence and ideals. Instead, domestic actors such as the Taliban and foreign actors such as China have gained significant ground. In order for the U.S. to meet one of the national priorities set forth in its National Security Strategy, engagement in Pakistan is necessary to sustain the stability of the international environment. Time is working against the U.S., given ongoing natural disasters, political unrest, and Pakistan's deepening economic ties with China. Countering those three elements — infrastructure deficits, political instability, and Chinese economic influence — is essential to achieving the desired environment in Pakistan.

The desired end state also includes minimal need for U.S. foreign aid, but when such aid is provided, it should be used wisely and without corruption to sustain and enhance modern infrastructure that leverages clean energy. It further envisions minimal reliance on economic partnerships with countries such as China that enable authoritarian governance. This end state directly aligns with U.S. strategic interests — particularly, resistance to autocratic forms of government, investment in country-level development to reduce instability, and the building of infrastructure that successfully addresses the escalating climate crisis while avoiding international economic disruptions and protracted humanitarian crises. Pakistan is also a key ally in the fight against terrorism, and the U.S. wants to ensure that Pakistan has the resources it needs to effectively combat extremist groups.