Saudi Arabia's Climate Change Policy and Oil Economy

Saudi Arabia: Geographic and Economic Overview

Saudi Arabia is a large, mostly desert country in the Middle East, occupying much of the Arabian Peninsula. By per capita GDP — where it ranks 55th in the world, just behind the Czech Republic — it qualifies as a middle-income country. However, wealth distribution is a significant issue, as most of the country's wealth derives from its oil reserves, which are controlled by a small number of ruling elites. The country also suffers from a high unemployment rate, especially among its youth (Morgan, 2011).

Geographically, Saudi Arabia is a vast country that is almost entirely desert, with very high temperatures for most of the year, negligible surface water, and sparse vegetation (CIA World Factbook, 2011). The country relies on underground water sources, which are being depleted — a major environmental concern that has prompted increasing reliance on desalination plants (CIA World Factbook, 2011).

IPCC Climate Change Scenario

Many aspects of climate change will not significantly impact Saudi Arabia. The country is already largely devoid of vegetation, so agricultural conditions will not be materially affected. Underground water supplies are similarly insulated from surface-level climate shifts. While temperatures are predicted to rise 5–6 degrees across most of the country under the IPCC scenario, Saudis are already reliant on air conditioning and nighttime activity as a result of their harsh climate. These adaptations will not fundamentally change with higher temperatures, although there will be more heat-related deaths, particularly in summer.

There is some risk to Jeddah, the country's second-largest city and major port, stemming from rising sea levels, though most Saudis live in elevated inland areas. There may also be increased intensity of winter thunderstorms in Jeddah and autumn storms in the Asir region, which experiences Indian Ocean monsoons and is perhaps the only genuinely fertile area of the country.

Saudi Arabia's Climate Change Policy

Saudi Arabia is a signatory to the Kyoto Protocol. The nation is wary, however, of certain aspects of climate change policy that would reduce global oil consumption. OPEC nations are "opposed to emissions reductions targets imposed by industrialized nations that threaten global oil demand growth" (Daya, 2011). This indicates that while Saudi Arabia is in principle concerned about climate change, there are significant differences of opinion within the country's political leadership on the issue. The concerns are mainly economic in nature — the country may face higher costs as a result of climate change, but it needs oil money to pay for those costs.

There should be some flexibility in Saudi Arabia's position, however. The first consideration is that while the country needs oil revenues, Saudi Arabia also needs to diversify its economy. Despite holding the world's largest proven oil reserves, Saudi Arabia will eventually exhaust them and must be able to survive in a post-oil world. With reserves expected to last over 100 years, the current leadership is not strongly oriented toward long-term planning to the same degree that some of its neighbors are.

Saudi Arabia's unemployment problem is also a double-edged sword. Diversifying away from oil dependence would create jobs for the nation's youth — a significant social benefit. However, addressing unemployment in the short run means leveraging oil wealth to build other industries, and it would require implementing greater wealth redistribution, something the country's leadership has been hesitant to pursue. Thus, Saudi Arabia is caught between a short-run dependency on oil that has it opposing tight restrictions on consumption, and a long-run interest in moving away from the oil economy — a transition that will only be forced by declining oil revenues.

Conclusion

Saudi Arabia has some incentive to participate in climate change reduction, but the country is unlikely to see much environmental damage. Thus, while the country is a signatory to Kyoto, it has few obligations under it and actively resists the idea that oil consumption should be reduced. Saudi Arabia's more pressing concerns — lack of water and high youth unemployment — are problems it will need oil money to solve.

As a result, Saudi Arabia's position will likely be to attempt to moderate controls on oil consumption. The country may be willing to accept reduced oil consumption from Western nations if some of its major trade partners, such as India and China, remain excluded from controls that would limit their consumption growth. In addition, Saudi Arabia is most likely to seek some form of protection against pollution controls on its own economy, since the country requires significant economic development in order to diversify away from oil dependency and to address its youth unemployment challenge.

Works Cited

CIA World Factbook: Saudi Arabia. (2011). Retrieved November 21, 2011 from https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/sa.html

Morgan, G. (2011). Youth unemployment the kindling that fuels unrest. Globe and Mail. Retrieved November 21, 2011 from

Daya, A. (2011). Saudis say OPEC is asked to pay more than fair share on climate action. Bloomberg. Retrieved November 21, 2011 from http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-21/saudis-say-opec-asked-to-pay-more-than-fair-share-on-climate-1-.html