Trump to Biden: The 2020 Presidential Transition Crisis

Introduction: A Historic and Contentious Election

The 2020 presidential election may become the most infamous election in U.S. history. At first glance, the contest would not seem that unusual. The two major candidates were from the country's two major political parties — the Democrats and the Republicans. The Republican candidate, Donald Trump, was the incumbent President of the United States, while the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, was both a former U.S. Senator and former Vice President under President Barack Obama. However, 2020 was also the year of the COVID-19 pandemic, which made everything more complicated, including campaigning and the conduct of elections themselves.

The changes that states made in order to accommodate people who could not safely vote in person served as one of the primary bases for allegations of election fraud — allegations that Trump began making before the first vote was even cast. In addition to attempting to delegitimize election results, Trump and various state Republican parties attempted to prevent people from voting by purging thousands from voter rolls and shutting down polling places. These efforts even extended to installing a Postmaster General who would intentionally slow down mail delivery in the months leading up to the election.

Despite these efforts, Joe Biden obtained a decisive victory, winning by well over 7 million popular votes and receiving 306 electoral votes to 232 for President Trump. Trump and several of his proxies began filing lawsuits challenging the results, but none were successful. Trump then began exploring other ways to prevent Biden from being certified as the winner, including organizing a rally on January 6, 2021, at which he indicated he would lead supporters to the Capitol to change the outcome. Despite these threats, Biden was certified as the next President in the early morning hours of January 7, 2021, and was inaugurated on January 20, 2021.

Thesis: Although Biden was certified as the next President and inaugurated, significant questions remained about what the intervening two weeks meant for the country — including whether President Trump would be removed via impeachment or the 25th Amendment before the end of his term, or face criminal liability for his role in the insurrection afterward.

COVID-19 and Its Impact on the 2020 Election

The 2020 COVID-19 pandemic complicated the election in a number of ways. It began by affecting how candidates campaigned. Both during the primaries and after securing the Democratic nomination, Biden was careful not to hold large in-person, maskless events out of concern for spreading COVID-19. Much of his campaigning was conducted virtually or through drive-in events. In contrast, even after repeated instances of COVID-19 spreading at his rallies, Trump continued to hold large campaign events and did not require attendees to wear masks or socially distance. This behavior continued even after Trump himself contracted COVID-19 and was hospitalized.

In addition to complicating how candidates campaigned, the pandemic fundamentally changed how people could vote. In-person voting — which often involved crowded lines and many people gathered indoors — became a significant health risk. This was further exacerbated by the fact that many areas had failed to institute mask mandates or social distancing requirements, and were experiencing COVID-19 surges at the time of the election. Many states responded by expanding voting opportunities, including extending early voting hours and broadening access to mail-in and absentee voting. However, these efforts were legally challenged in many locations, with varying outcomes.

Fraud Allegations and Voter Suppression Efforts

Polling lower than Biden for most of the pre-election season, Trump began suggesting long before election day that if he lost, the results would be the product of fraud. He claimed that mail-in voting created opportunities for fraud — despite casting his own ballot by mail. He actively discouraged his own supporters from voting by mail and then installed a Postmaster General who took various steps, including removing mail-sorting machines, to slow down mail delivery. In some states, voters were purged from voter rolls and polling places in traditionally minority areas were closed.

These tactics represent a broader pattern of voter suppression that critics argued was designed to disadvantage Democratic voters, who were statistically more likely to vote by mail during the pandemic. The combination of pre-election rhetoric about fraud and active suppression efforts set the stage for Trump's refusal to accept the eventual election results.

Biden's Victory and the Election Results

Despite the efforts to hinder voters — particularly Democratic voters — the results of the 2020 election ended up being decisively in Biden's favor. While he did not win every state where polls showed him as a potential winner, such as Texas (considered a toss-up for the first time in decades), he did carry states like Georgia, which had not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in over two generations. However, the margins of victory in several states were relatively slim.

Because many Biden supporters cast their ballots by mail, some results were not available until long after Election Day on November 3, 2020. People could not reliably predict the overall winner until November 7th, when ABC News, CNN, Fox News, NBC News, and The New York Times all projected Biden to be the winner based on estimates that he would carry Pennsylvania, pushing him over the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win (Ballotpedia, 2021). Arizona and Georgia were called later, and Biden won both. However, the margin in Georgia was narrow enough to trigger a hand recount, which was not completed until November 24 (Ballotpedia, 2021).

Conclusion: An Uncertain Transition

It is difficult to write a definitive conclusion to this scenario, given how much remained unresolved at the time of writing. The Capitol Police failed to arrest many of those who attacked the Capitol. Biden was certified, but with two weeks remaining until the inauguration, much of the nation was left wondering what else Trump might attempt to disrupt the peaceful transfer of power.

Politicians and citizens from across the political spectrum — including many of Trump's former cabinet members — called for his removal from office. Yet an alarming 45% of Republican voters still believed the election had been fraudulent, and some even expressed support for the attack on Congress. As of January 7, 2021, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer had both called upon Vice President Pence and the Cabinet to invoke the 25th Amendment to remove Trump for his role in the insurrection. Both leaders stated their intention to pursue impeachment if no action was taken under the 25th Amendment. At the time this essay was written, Pence had not responded, and reports indicated that Trump had barred Pence from the White House.

References

Ballotpedia. "Election Results, 2020." Ballotpedia.org. 14 December 2020. https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2020. Accessed 7 January 2021.

Cilizza, Chris. "Donald Trump's Election Threat Is Actually Worse Than It Appears." CNN Politics. 24 September 2020. Accessed 7 January 2021.

Richardson, Heather Cox. "January 6, 2021." Letters from an American. 6 January 2021. Accessed 7 January 2021.