Political geography and voter dynamics in Mississippi elections

Campaigns and Elections

Strategy Memorandum: The Political Geography and Climate of Mississippi Today

This strategy memorandum provides a background and overview of issues relevant to the State of Mississippi, recent election result, and popular political figures in the state that both parties can use in a nonpartisan fashion to determine how best to work within the political and historical confines of their respective districts and the state.

Median Income; Education

Median Age: 35.4 years

years and over: 73.9%

years and over: 12.4%

Workers median income: $25,849

Washington Post (2008) Elections at http://projects.washingtonpost.com/elections/keyraces/census/ms/.

Partisanship: Democrat (Blue State)/Republican (Red State).

According to Mitchell (2008), "Mississippi remains one of the reddest of the red states - voting Democratic in the presidential election only once since 1956. President Bush in 2004 defeated Sen. John Kerry by a national margin of 51% to 49% in popular vote (286 to 251 in electoral vote). It wasn't even close in Mississippi, where Bush won with 60% of the vote" (2-3).

Voter Turnout:

According to Persily (2007), although there has been a general decline in registration and voter turnout in Mississippi in recent years, overall, African-American voter turnout during the 2004 election exceeded that of whites. In Mississippi, African-Americans comprise fully 35% of the population, and the state enjoys near proportional representation for African-Americans in the state legislatures and congressional delegations (Persily). During the last non-presidential election in 2002, in states where Republicans faced minimal opposition, such as Mississippi, overall voter turnout was relatively low 27% (Hudson, 2006).

A recapitulation of the state's voter composition and turnout rate is provided below.

Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP): 2,124,000

Reported Registered Voters: 1,778,245

Percent Registered of CVAP: 83.7%

Maximum Votes Cast/Counted 498,531

Turnout Rate (% of CVAP): 23.5%

Turnout Rate (% of Registered): 28.0%

Last Presidential Election:

Reported Vote Percentage

Democrats (John Kerry/John Edwards): 458,094 39.76%

Republicans (George W. Bush/Dick Cheney): 684,981 59.45%

Source: Mississippi Secretary of State, General Election Results, 2004 at http://www.sos.state.ms.us/elections/2004/General/112105_CertPresVP.pdf.

Last Senate and House race: 2006 general election.

U.S. Senate: Reported Vote Percentage

Erik R. Fleming 213,000 34.87%

Trent Lott 388,399 63.58%

Harold M. Taylor 9,522 1.56%

First Congressional District:

James K. (Ken) Hurt 49,174 34.08%

Roger K. Wicker 95,098 65.92%

Second Congressional District:

Yvonne R. Brown 55,672 35.73%

Bennie G. Thompson 100,160 64.27%

Third Congressional District:

Chip Pickering 125,421 77.67%

Jim Giles 25,999 16.10%

Lamonica L. Magee 10,060 6.23%

Fourth Congressional District:

Randy McDonnell 28,117 20.21%

Gene Taylor 110,996 79.79%

Source: Mississippi Secretary of State, General Election Results at http://www.sos.state.ms.us/elections/2006/primary/General%20Election%20Federal%20Offices/U.S.%20SENATE.pdf.

The Candidates

Senate Race (considered very competitive):

House Race Choices: MS-1: Incumbent Travis Childers (D) and Greg Davis (R)

The Democrats in Mississippi recently secured a new conservative member when Travis Childers won a special House election in a district that was long held by Republicans (Lengell and Lambro). According to Rep. Gene Taylor of Mississippi, both Democrats have socially conservative positions on such issues as gun rights and abortion, and campaigned as fiscal conservatives, prompting a member of the conservative Democratic Blue Dog Caucus, to call those efforts a mistake. "Travis Childers did a great job of reminding the voters that this [race] was about who's going to represent the needs of northern Mississippi in Washington, D.C., and not the other way around," Mr. Taylor said. "This wasn't a national race. It was a local race." (quoted in Lengell and Lambro at A01).

Childers is opposed by Greg Davis, the former mayor of Southhaven. According to Davis's campaign Web site, among the prominent issues to be considered during the upcoming election are national security, lower energy costs, defense of traditional Mississippi values, and a reduction in taxation and government spending (Main issues 1).

Particular Relevant Issues. According to Lengell and Lambro (2008), "Southerners would rather vote for a 'yellow dog' than a Republican, [but] the party is having more success in recruiting politically attractive candidates who reflect the political culture of their districts" (A01). One analyst reported that, "There's a lot of talk about how Obama will stimulate a large African-American turnout and put Southern states like Mississippi in play, but he will also stimulate an extremely large white voter turnout as well. He'd need one-third of the white vote to win any of those states, and I do not see him achieving that level of support among white Southerners" (quoted in Lengell and Lambro at A01). Likewise, Mitchell emphasizes that, "Racial attitudes have changed dramatically in Mississippi and the South in the decades since race was always the No. 1 issue. But perhaps it's not down far enough on the list that people will feel comfortable voting for an African-American candidate" (3).

Finally, Persily points out that the delays encountered during the recent Mississippi congressional redistricting plan resulted in charges that partisan concerns had come to steer the granting or withholding of pre-clearance in a few high-profile cases. In fact, the Voting Section stalled the redistricting process in Mississippi for so long that a pro-Republican redistricting plan went into effect by default (Persily). There are also some general trends discernible in the state based on recent election results. The Republican Party has continued to gain strength in Mississippi in recent years, with former Republican National Committee (RNC) chairman Haley Barbour becoming just the second Republican governor of Mississippi in more than 130 years (Hickey, 2003).