Chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and explosive weapons proliferation

CBRNE Event and Response

Over the last several years, the safety of chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and explosive related weapons (CBRNE) has been increasingly brought to the forefront. Part of the reason for this, is because downfall of the Soviet Union has meant that acquiring these materials from failed states have increased exponentially. As, the stockpiles in many of these areas have questionable security procedures that are allowing terrorist and other rogue organizations to have access to these materials. (Prosser, 2011)

At the same time, the total amount of countries that are possessing these materials have increased dramatically. As different nations, are using these weapons to protect against possible military attacks or internal insurrection. In a number of cases, the majority of states that possess CBRNE's are more than likely considered to: have questionable human rights records or they may not have signed different international provisions limiting the proliferation of these weapons. Evidence of this can be seen by looking at the below table.

Nations that currently possess CBRNE's

Country

CBRNE Status

Albania

Possess chemical weapons

China

Possess chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons.

Great Britain

Possess chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons.

France

Possess chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons.

United States

Possess chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons.

Cuba

Possess chemical and biological weapons.

India

Possess chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons.

Egypt

Possess chemical and biological weapons.

Israel

Possess chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons.

Iran

Possess chemical, biological, radiological and working on developing nuclear weapons.

Libya

Possess chemical and biological weapons.

North Korea

Possess chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons.

Pakistan

Possess chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons.

South Korea

Possess biological weapons.

Russia

Possess chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons.

Syria

Possess chemical, biological, radiological and working on developing nuclear weapons.

Sudan

Possess biological weapons.

Taiwan

Possess chemical and biological weapons.

("Chemical, Biological and Nuclear Weapons at a Glance," 2011) (Prosser, 2011)

These different elements are important, because they are showing how the overall threat from a CBRNE related incidents has increased dramatically. The reason why, is the majority of these countries have questionable human rights records and they are susceptible to corruption or theft. In either case, this increases the odds that some kind of terrorist organization could be able to obtain these materials. Once this takes place, the chances increase that they will use these substances to commit some form of mass murder on a major target of opportunity.

A good example of this occurred with the 1995 attack on the Tokyo subway system by an extremist group of religious fanatics, who were able to obtain sarin gas. They subsequently, released these substances into the city's metro killing 8 people. This is significant, because it is showing how CBRNE related materials can be used by small groups (such as terrorists) to kill large numbers of people and create chaos. To fully understand the significance of this event requires looking at: what went right, wrong, the length of time it took to identify the event and what can be learned from this incident. Together, these different elements will provide the greatest insights as to the significance of these attacks. Once this occurs, is when we will be able to understand how the overall nature of the threat and what steps can be taken to address these issues. (Zalman, 2011)

Background on the 1995 Tokyo Subway Attacks

On March 20, 1995 the Tokyo subway system was the subject of five coordinated attacks involving sarin gas. What happened was, members of cult named Aum Shirnikyo released these chemicals during the rush commute. The way that this was accomplished was with five different teams placing these substances on three different trains in the form of water bottle. They discovered that a poisonous gas is released when there is a leak inside these containers. Once this occurred, is when the gas would completely fill the airspace inside each car (causing the largest number of casualties possible). (Zalman, 2011)

At first, authorities were unsure about who was responsible for perpetrating the attack. However, the information released by the government revealed that this cult had been planning these events for over two years. After raiding their locations throughout Japan, the police discovered that they had large amounts of substances that were capable of producing sarin gas. At the same time, they also found $7 million in cash, enough chemicals to kill 4.7 million people and a large array of documents (which provided them with enough information to create chemical / biological weapons). This is important, because it is showing how the downfall of the Soviet Union and the lack of controls inside many countries are giving these groups access to CBRNE's. Moreover, the increased amounts of available material on how to construct these weapons and conduct attacks using these substances, are illustrating how changes in technology have increased the scope of the threat. As a result, this is highlighting how in the future these kinds of incidents will become more common if steps are not taken to deal with these challenges. (Zalman, 2011)

What went right?

Despite the tragedy that occurred on the subway system, there were number of things that Japanese officials did right to include: working the evidence, corroborating with other officials and quickly responding to the incident. As far as working the evidence is concerned, the Japanese government was unsure about who committed this attack at first. The reason why, is because most people believed that this was not possible in Tokyo. As, the city was not known for being a high profile threat in comparison with other urban centers such as: New York and London. This created a false sense of security prior to the attacks. (Alfred, 2009)

However, once it became clear that this was a CBRNE incident, the police quickly moved to determine who was responsible for these attacks. Within 48 hours, law enforcement began quickly raiding all of the different properties that belonged to the cult. They found out that they had an estimated net worth of $1.5 billion and that they were involved in several legitimate religious activities. This allowed them to easily raise funds for a wide variety of purposes. (Alfred, 2009)

In 1990, the group first decided to construct a chemical weapon. As, they wanted to use it to: make a statement about current society and issues that could be affecting the cult itself. Once this occurred, it meant that the group quickly created a large factory. That was designed for the construction and testing of these weapons. This allowed them to: perfect manufacturing and refine their preferred methods of delivery. What this is showing is the ability of law enforcement, to able to quickly determine who was responsible. This led to key evidence that was obtained during the raids. Once this occurred, it prevented the cult from being able to conduct more attacks in the future by: cutting off their sources of funding, seizing their weapons and arresting the ring leaders. (Alfred, 2009)

At the same time, they discovered that the group had several different members who were scientists and technicians, with the ability to create a variety of chemical as well as biological weapons. This lead to these individuals conducting research on different kinds of CBRNE's to include: the testing / development of anthrax, botulinum, Q-fever and Ebola. After working with various compounds, they were able to create a method of delivery and begin actively searching for possible targets. Over the course of time, this would result in a number of attempted terrorist attacks throughout Japan with the group using what they had learned. Below are several of these events that took place prior to the attack on the Tokyo subway system. (Carus, 1997)

Early June 1993: Once the group had conducted tremendous amounts of research in the area of CBRNE's, they believed that they developed weapons that could cause mass casualties.

This first target was the wedding of Prince Naruihito of Japanese royal family. What they did, was to drive around in the area of downtown Tokyo where the wedding was taking place. The idea was that they could spread botulinum into the atmosphere (using an automobile attached to an air spray device). This was supposed to cause mass casualties and create panic, with the hope that the wedding party would be affected. (Carus, 1997)

Late June 1993: After realizing that the system was ineffective. The group decided to conduct another attack inside Tokyo. This time they were going to disperse anthrax into the air from a building that they owned over the course of 4 days. (Carus, 1997) However, the wind kept changing directions and the effects of the gas were negated.

In both incidents, no one was injured. However, Japanese authorities were made aware of the cult and their activities. At the time, nothing was done to prevent any kind of further actions from these individuals. This is because, there were no casualties and the activities of the cult were gaining in popularity. As a result, law enforcement and intelligence officials kept records of these events in case they needed them in the future. This is significant, because these two incidents brought the group out into the open. Once the subway attacks occurred, is when the police could use this information and method of attack to conduct the raid on the cult's facilities within 48 hours. This helped to prevent future attacks and it disrupted the activities of the group. (Carus, 1997) (Sopko, 1996, pp. 3 -- 20) (Hoffman, 2001, pp. 417 -- 428) (Laquer, 1996, pp. 24 -- 36)

The corroboration of government officials took place the moment that the attack was announced. As it became clear, that this was an organized act of terrorism that was targeted at public infrastructure. This is when the various agencies began working together. Once this took place, it meant that the information that was uncovered about groups attempting similar attacks in the past that went unnoticed. This the point that Aum Shirnikyo was brought to the attention of government officials. As, they quickly became the prime suspects surrounding their involvement in the incident. Over the next 24 hours, this information was provided to the police and determined what locations needed to be raided. This is important, because without everyone working together, key pieces of evidence could have been lost and the main perpetrators might have slipped away. (Alfred, 2009) (Sopko, 1996, pp. 3 -- 20) (Hoffman, 2001, pp. 417 -- 428) (Laquer, 1996, pp. 24 -- 36)

A third positive development for public officials was that first responders were trained for dealing with this kind of incidents. This is because they had gone through a series of different mock CBRNE drills throughout the years. When the event was first reported, everyone knew that this was something more than a few people, who were injured by an anonymous substance. Instead, the large number of casualties caused first responders, to quickly go to these locations and take the injured to various hospitals. This helped to prevent the total number of casualties from spreading out of control. (Alfred, 2009) (Sopko, 1996, pp. 3 -- 20) (Hoffman, 2001, pp. 417 -- 428) (Laquer, 1996, pp. 24 -- 36)

At the same time, the government quickly began to assure the public that the transit system was safe. This limited the amounts of fear associated with the events. Once this took place, it meant that the economy was able to continue functioning despite what happened. This is important, because it is showing how the quick response to this situation created a sense of calm among the general public. This mitigated any kind of adverse impact that these attacks would have on the economy and the way that everyone was living their daily lives. (Alfred, 2009) (Sopko, 1996, pp. 3 -- 20) (Hoffman, 2001, pp. 417 -- 428) (Laquer, 1996, pp. 24 -- 36)

How long did it take to identify the event?

The length of time that it took for police to identify, the fact that they were having a CBRNE attack was within 20 minutes of initial reports. This is because on five different trains, passengers were immediately becoming sick. Once this occurred, it raised concerns that there was some kind of event involving: a chemical or biological weapon. This caused first responders to dress appropriately and treat casualties different in comparison with other incidents. After they began taking those who were hurt to hospital; is when it was discovered that this attack was conducted using sarin gas. (Sopko, 1996, pp. 3 -- 20) (Hoffman, 2001, pp. 417 -- 428) (Laquer, 1996, pp. 24 -- 36)

This is important, because it is showing how government officials were able to understand the nature of the threat. This helped them to provide additional support and limit the totals amounts of collateral damage. In the hours after the event, this helped to instill a sense of calm among the population, with most people believing that investigators would go after those responsible. Over the short to medium term, this lowered the levels of fear and it encouraged everyone to go about their lives. Once this took place, it limited the negative effects that could have an impact on consumers and the activities of business owners.

What can we learn from this going forward?

The events that occurred on the Tokyo subway system, are illustrating a number of different lessons that can be learned. Where, there were both successes and failures that are serving as blue print in showing how to deal with these incidents. Over the course of time, this has helped public officials to understand the nature of terrorism and what steps must be taken to address potential challenges.

What we can learn for the Successes?

As far as the successes are concerned, the Japanese government reacted effectively to these events. What happened was the anti-terrorism and public safety drills helped to prepare everyone for possible manmade as well as natural disasters. This meant that first responders were trained to effectively deal with these kinds of incidents. At the same time, the public knew their role and how they should be deal with these issues. Once the attack occurred on the subway system, everyone was prepared and could adapt to the specific threat. This meant that when initial casualties were being reported, is when first responders knew how to deal with this kind of incident. At which point, the number of casualties would be limited and they were able to quickly restore service to those trains that were affected. This gave everyone confidence in the government and their ability to prevent the situation from spiraling out of control.

At the same time, the fact that law enforcement knew of previous activities of the cult provided a basic foundation for conducting an investigation. As, they could use this information to pin point specific incidents involving similar kinds of substances in the past. This allowed law enforcement to quickly react to what happened and begin raiding the group's properties. Once this occurs, is when they determined that they had a large factory with enough sarin gas to kill millions of people. This is significant, because the files that were collected allowed the police to make arrests of key suspects within 48 hours.

These successes are important, because they provided a way of helping the government to deal with the after effects of the attack and make critical arrests. This restored calm and prevented possible attacks in the future. At the same time, this allowed public services to go back to their normal schedules within a short period of time. As a result, what everyone can learn from these events is that all governments must have effective plans in place to deal with possible CBRNE related incidents. This means that the public needs to work in conjunction with officials, to ensure that any kind of adverse collateral damage is limited.

What we can learn from the Failures?

When it comes to negative incidents, there are a number of lessons that can be learned from what happened. First of all, government officials must be more watchful of terrorist related activities. The way that this can be accomplished is by encouraging everyone to report information that they may have about an unusual event that is taking place.

If this kind of approach had been taken, it would have prevented these Tokyo subway attacks on two fronts. The first red flag would have arisen, the moment that the group began making large purchases of controlled substances. The consistency of their activities would cause law enforcement to scrutinize what is happening. This is the point that they could have knowledge about possible criminal activities.

The second red flag would have arisen, when there was the smoke that was coming from one of the properties owned by the cult. As, law enforcement could use the large number of purchases of controlled substances and the incident to illustrate that there is the probability of crime being committed. This is when they could have raided the group and discovered their future plans. These different elements are important, because this is showing how everyone must be watchful of suspicious activity. Once this takes place, is when the odds decrease that there will be some kind of terrorist attack. This is because law enforcement is proactively dealing with these issues, by looking for key patterns in their activity. What we can learn from this; is that all terrorist related events require tremendous amounts of support. This means that by monitoring for suspicious activities, the police can locate suspects who are planning future attacks.

A second area where we learn from the failure of Japanese officials is with their ability to effectively communicate. Part of the reason for this, is because most government agencies will have rivalries with each other. Where, they do not want to share resources or any kind of information. The reason why, is they are fearful that other agencies could become involved in areas that are reserved from them. Over the course of time, these views have led to the belief that it is okay to sit on critical facts that are affecting public safety. This helped to create a sense of compliancy about what was happening, with no one willing to go the extra mile in performing their duties. Once this occurs, is when the odds increase that there will be some kind of terrorist attack that will take place.

If there had been effective communication between government officials, this would have prevented the Tokyo subway attack. The reason why, is because the improved communication will help everyone to focus on specific events that are endangering the public. This is the point that the police will be able to arrest those involved. Once this took place, any evidence that was collected could be used to seek out other individuals who are a part of similar plots. This is important, because it showing how this approach could mitigate possible threats associated with terrorist related activities.

What we can learn from these negative aspects, is that effective monitoring and communication are a key in having successful anti-terrorism efforts. The reason why, is because it prevents these groups from having an environment that will allow them to build and test new weapons. This limits the amounts of knowledge in being able to conduct successful CBRNE attacks. As a result, if these ideas are incorporated into any kind of strategy it will identify possible threat early. This is when the amounts of danger can be limited with law enforcement acting proactively towards these situations.

Clearly, the overall threats from CBRNE's are continually rising. Part of the reason for this, is because a number of rouge nations have their own programs and willing to share their knowledge with others. At the same time, information about how to conduct these kinds of attacks and manufacture these weapons is available on the Internet. This means that anyone who has a desire to build and test these weapons can be able to do so with: little to no previous knowledge.

In the case of the 1995 Tokyo subway attacks, a religious cult was able to obtain information about how to build a number of CBRNE's to include: the testing / development of anthrax, botulinum, Q-fever and Ebola. What helped to make them so successful was that law enforcement failed to act in preventing them from attacking the transit system. This because the police were not monitoring, the controlled substances the group was purchasing and their activities. Once this occurred, it created an environment where they were able to gain the knowledge in developing and conducting a coordinated attack. However, in the aftermath of the incident, first responders were able to quickly deal with casualties and the police were able to arrest the perpetrators. This helped to instill a sense of confidence in the public about: the government and their ability to deal with these situations. As a result, this event is highlighting how everyone must be: watchful for signs of terrorist activities, they must effectively communicate / collaborate with each other and have flexibility. If this approach can be taken in the future, it will help to effective prepare governments and communities for these kinds of incidents.