Domestic Violence, Poverty, and Conviction Rates: A Research Design

Introduction

Domestic violence and poverty appear to be linked, as the majority of convicted domestic violence offenders come from lower socioeconomic groups. However, this observed correlation raises an important question: does poverty actually cause higher rates of domestic violence, or does it simply predict a higher likelihood of conviction once an offense has occurred?

Research Problem and Hypothesis

The central research question is whether the fact that the majority of convicted domestic violence offenders come from lower socioeconomic groups means that poverty increases the rate of domestic violence. The hypothesis proposed here is that the rate of domestic violence offenses does not vary with income, but that people with lower incomes are more likely to be convicted after committing those offenses. In other words, what looks like a relationship between poverty and domestic violence may actually be a relationship between poverty and criminal justice outcomes.

Key Variables and Propositions

The independent concept in this study is income. The two dependent concepts are the rate of domestic violence offenses and the conviction rate for those offenses. These yield two testable propositions:

First, as income decreases, the number of domestic violence offenses will remain constant. Here, the independent variable is income and the dependent variable is the number of offenses. Second, as income increases, domestic violence offenders are less likely to be convicted of domestic violence offenses. Here, the independent variable is again income, and the dependent variable is the conviction rate.

Separating these two propositions is critical. Domestic violence research that relies solely on arrest or conviction records risks conflating the actual prevalence of abuse with the systemic factors — such as differential policing and access to legal representation — that affect whether lower-income offenders are formally processed through the criminal justice system.

Proposed Research Methodology

Because there may be disparity based on economic status in arrest records and other formal reporting mechanisms, determining the incidence of domestic violence will be accomplished by examining 911 phone calls made in a county that has a fair representation of persons from all socioeconomic groups over a six-month period. Each 911 call reporting an assault by a family member or member of the household will be counted as a domestic violence incident.

Income will be determined by examining the tax records for the individuals listed as the tenant or owner of the location identified in each 911 call. The calls will be tracked, and the researcher will determine how many of those calls ultimately result in a conviction. Because domestic violence offenders can frequently plead down to lesser charges, any conviction stemming from the alleged family violence incident will be considered a domestic violence conviction for the purposes of the study.

Using 911 call data rather than arrest or conviction records is a deliberate methodological choice. Formal reporting mechanisms such as police reports and court records are subject to income-based disparities — lower-income individuals may face more aggressive policing and have less access to legal counsel, inflating their apparent offending rates in official statistics. By starting with 911 calls, the study captures incidents at the point of reporting rather than at the point of formal legal action, providing a more neutral measure of actual domestic violence incidence across socioeconomic groups.

Conclusion

After collecting six months of initial 911 call data and tracking the resolution of those calls through the legal system, the researcher will correlate the number of calls attributable to each socioeconomic group with income to determine whether domestic violence incidence actually varies with income. After making that determination, the researcher will then correlate the number of calls with the conviction rate to determine whether conviction rates vary inversely with income. Together, these two analyses will allow the study to distinguish between a genuine effect of poverty on domestic violence behavior and a systemic effect of poverty on criminal justice outcomes.