U.S.–China Relations and the Thucydides Trap

Introduction and National Interests

This memorandum addresses the possibility of China and the United States escaping Thucydides' Trap — the historical pattern in which a rising power's challenge to an established power results in war — and outlines relevant national interests, strategic analysis, and policy options.

Vital. Prevent China and the U.S. from going to war; ensure a continual alliance between the two governments.

Extremely Important. Protect U.S. citizens, embassies, personnel, and significant U.S. infrastructure within areas facing potential attack, including cyber-attacks. Limit access to sensitive data, restrict the flow of information from the U.S. to China, and regulate airport and immigration policies accordingly.

Important. Prevent sabotage and espionage through the use of white-hat hackers and U.S. intelligence agencies. Continual leaking of information will damage the U.S. government's interests in the long run.

Analysis of China's Rise

China is a growing world power. Within a few decades it has generated a surge in both wealth and productivity, becoming the country that manufactures virtually everything — from household appliances to critical factory equipment and hospital technology. As China grows in power, it may soon rival that of the United States. When a rising power rivals an established power, the historical record and the logic of Thucydides' Trap suggest the outcome is war. Even in the four out of sixteen known cases in which Thucydides' Trap did not result in war, it required a great deal of compromise and significant adjustment in attitudes on both sides to avoid conflict (Allison, 2015).

China has grown from a small and weak economy to a large and powerful one, surpassing earlier benchmarks in nearly every measure. In less than four decades, China has become an upper-middle-income country. This surge in economic development has allowed China to expand its foreign policy ambitions as well as its military capabilities, and it may soon pose a challenge to the U.S. in terms of military technology and military intelligence.

China has grown in productive capacity and now exports many of the products the U.S. depends upon. President Xi Jinping shifted China's policies away from the "hide your strength" doctrine toward more aggressive and assertive positions on the world stage.

For four decades, the U.S. has pursued an engagement approach toward China. Every president during this period has attempted to integrate China into the global system. Integration has been, and continues to be, one of the most important goals of American foreign policy — a strategy proven successful in the aftermath of World War II. This approach has allowed Asia-Pacific nations to focus not on strategic competition abroad but on economic development instead.

Although China's expansion can be considered a natural expression of growing national power, it nonetheless represents a potential threat. China's leaders are working to shape the global environment in ways that favor Chinese interests. However, some of China's new assertiveness remains centered on Beijing, and certain areas remain constructive for overall China-U.S. relations (Hart, 2015).

Operational Objectives

Assist in creating stronger barriers against cyber espionage — China cannot be permitted to gain further access to U.S. personnel files, and the theft of intellectual property must be stopped. Secure a continual alliance with China and develop a tactical strategy for addressing China's problematic behavior. Improve IT security and information sharing among U.S. staff and government officials. Restrict access to all personnel files, especially online access. Provide a tactical strategy for handling China's new assertiveness in foreign policy.

Build a durable U.S. foreign policy framework for relations with China. Degrade China's cyber espionage capabilities over time.