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Biden's 2022 NSS and Global Trends 2040: Shared Challenges

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Abstract

This paper examines the dominant theme linking the National Intelligence Council's Global Trends 2040 report and the Biden administration's 2022 National Security Strategy (NSS). It argues that "Global Challenges" — encompassing climate change, pandemic preparedness, food security, technology disruptions, and financial crises — emerges as the most critical theme across both documents. The paper highlights how these challenges are expected to intensify, cascade, and become intertwined over the coming decades, and how the 2022 NSS explicitly prioritizes global cooperation among like-minded allies over competitive geopolitical rivalry in addressing these shared threats.

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What makes this paper effective

The paper draws a direct, evidence-based connection between two authoritative government documents — Global Trends 2040 and the 2022 NSS — rather than relying on secondary commentary alone.
It uses a direct presidential quotation to anchor its central claim, lending authority and specificity to the argument about cooperative security.
The analysis moves logically from identifying a shared theme to explaining why that theme supersedes other strategic priorities, giving the argument clear direction.

Key academic technique demonstrated

The paper demonstrates comparative document analysis — aligning two primary source policy documents to identify thematic convergence. This technique is particularly valuable in political science and security studies, where policy coherence across institutional outputs often signals genuine strategic priority.

Structure breakdown

The paper consists of a single focused analytical paragraph followed by a references section. The body paragraph introduces the Global Challenges theme from Global Trends 2040, maps it onto the 2022 NSS, uses a direct quotation to substantiate the alignment, and concludes with a normative observation about collaborative threat response. Despite its brevity, the argument is complete and self-contained, making it a strong model for focused short-response or position-paper writing at the undergraduate level.

Global Challenges as the Dominant Theme

One of the themes that the authors of Global Trends 2040 indicate will likely impact the strategic environment over the next twenty years is Global Challenges. More specifically, the authors point out that there are a number of challenges with a high likelihood of manifesting in intense and frequent formats across various countries and regions. These include technology disruptions, financial crises, disease, and climate change (National Intelligence Council, 2021). There is no doubt that these will bring about significant strain and suffering. The fact that these concerns will not only cascade but also become intertwined in some instances only serves to make the situation direr.

This appears to be the very theme that the 2022 National Security Strategy identifies as more important than the other themes it addresses. This is especially the case given that some of the factors likely to shape the next stage of human history — including food security, pandemic preparedness, and climate change — are explicitly named by the 2022 NSS. These factors closely align with the shared global challenges identified in Global Trends 2040.

The 2022 NSS is categorical that, although a need exists for the United States to outcompete its rivals, there is an even greater need to tackle these shared challenges. Importantly, the United States acknowledges the relevance of engaging like-minded partners and allies in these efforts. As President Biden states in the 2022 National Security Strategy, "shared challenges that impact people everywhere demand increased global cooperation and nations stepping up to their responsibilities…" (The White House, 2022, p. 2). The president thus appears cognizant of the fact that the United States and other nations face shared threats that must be addressed in a collaborative format.

National Intelligence Council. (2021). Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World.

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Key Concepts in This Paper

Global Challenges National Security Strategy Global Trends 2040 Climate Change Pandemic Preparedness Food Security Global Cooperation Strategic Environment Technology Disruption Allied Partnerships