Thirteen Days

Thirteen Days Analysis
Kennedy Khrushchev and Detente in Thirteen Days
Part 1: Introduction to the Analysis
The film Thirteen Days looks at the Kennedy Administration’s response to the threat of a Soviet missile attack launched from Cuba. The year is 1962; the main players are Kennedy and his team of advisors, including his brother Robert Kennedy, his close confidante Kennth O’Donnell and Defense Secretary Robert McNamara. Kennedy’s team is not only facing pressure from the Soviets (including Khrushchev, the Politburo, Soviet emissary Fomin, and Soviet Ambassador Dobrynin) but also from the Joint Chiefs, who represent the war hawks, eager to strike first and ask questions later. Kennedy’s problem is what to do: he states clearly that the US cannot allow Soviet missiles so close to its borders—but how to address the problem without making it worse is the question. Kennedy is reluctant to take any action that would lead to war, but to take no action is to risk being annihilated if the Soviets do indeed intend to launch an attack.
The action takes place primarily in Washington, with pivots to military scenes in Cuba, but the bulk of the film focuses on the work of O’Donnell, the Kennedy brothers, and various advisors. The situation from the outset is tense as unwanted information about the missile build-up in Cuba is delivered to the President and his team at a round table, where everyone—including the war hawks—is assembled to weigh in on the matter and present the President with some options and possible outcomes. The threat of the missiles is immediate as Gen. Taylor, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, informs the President that in five minutes the Soviets could kill 80,000,000 Americans and destroy several bomber bases, making it difficult to launch an effective counterstrike. Everyone in the room looks unnerved by the information. Taylor, speaking for the Joint Chiefs, argues that the presence of missiles in Cuba indicates a major doctrinal shift in Soviet thinking. Anyone familiar with Kennan’s Long Telegram of 1946 knows that the policy-thinking of the Soviets was to sit back and allow the capitalist nations of the West to fall by attacking one another. The key tool of the Soviets, as identified by Kennan, was to use propaganda—military strikes were not seen as a threat. That is why in the film Taylor argues that the Soviets are evidently changing their policy with regard to the West by putting missiles in place in Cuba.
Kennedy has to decide what to do—but before he can do that he has to assess whether the threat is real. Just because the Joint Chiefs believe it is does not mean they are correct. The Bay of Pigs fiasco was still fresh in Kennedy’s mind and he was acutely aware of the hawkishness of the Joint Chiefs and their desire to implement a policy of containment. Kennedy was seen by them as soft on Communism—meaning he wanted to avoid using military intervention to contain the Soviet Union or to confront it directly and risk WWIII. The fact that the film ends with Kennedy’s American University speech indicates that his main goal was to promote peace rather than war.
However, in the opening scenes of the film, war is suddenly a very real possibility because it could be forced upon the US—if the Joint Chiefs are right and the Soviets do intend to launch a strike. Where Kennedy and the Joint Chiefs agree is on the matter of the risk that the missiles pose in Cuba. Where there is a lack of agreement is on the extent to which the threat of an attack is imminent. The Joint Chiefs appear indifferent to whether it is imminent or not—the very possibility of a threat makes it so in their minds. Kennedy is conscious, however, of the possibility that the Soviets are playing a political game and that the apparent threat may only be a bluff. Kennedy wants more information before he makes a decision.
Part 2: Analysis of Team Dimensions
Kennedy’s advisors assemble to discuss the matter more fully. Two immediate options are on the table: blockade or air strike. McNamara suggests a blockade to prevent the numerous other ships en route to Cuba from the Soviet Union from potentially delivering new weapons, and it would also allow time for the states to give their support and provide the government with a sense of legitimacy. However, CIA Director McCone informs Kennedy of the risk of conducting a blockade or “quarantine” as they call it to prevent further build-up of missiles. McCone argues that a blockade causes the US to lose the strategy of surprise and does nothing to prevent a Soviet first-strike. The first goal of Kennedy is to determine which option to choose and Kennedy has his speech writer come up with a speech justifying both options.
Kennedy now turns to his core team and describes the information he has that is informing his own perspective. His point of view is based on a book he has read called the Guns of August. He describes the book and then applies the lesson of it to the current situation and emphasizes that tensions can escalate quickly into disaster if one misstep is taken. He cautions his team that the correct course of action must be guided by caution and calm.
The structure is simple: Kennedy has the final word in determining the course to take; however, he faces pressure from several fronts. His Secretary of Defense urges a blockade; the Joint Chiefs and the CIA Director urge a military strike; the Soviets want the US to withdraw Jupiter missiles from Turkey. Any option has to be justified to the public in a manner that makes the US look neither like an aggressor nor like it is being bullied. Kennedy delegates authority to his team in an informal manner, trusting them to make important decisions on their own, knowing that his primary goal is to maintain the peace and prevent war. This allows Robert to negotiate on his own with the Soviet Ambassador, and it allows O’Donnell to communicate a special message to the pilots flying over Cuba about the importance of not reporting anything that would give the military a justification for retaliation (i.e., if they are fired upon while flying overhead, do not report it because then the military generals will feel that they are permitted to start the war that they so strongly desire to have). Neither O’Donnell nor Robert runs these decisions by Kennedy—but because they understand his vision and his primary goal and because he trusts them they feel empowered to act in this manner. Their actions, moreover, serve the vision of the President and facilitate the accomplishment of his end goal, even while he negotiates with his advisors in a strategy to buy time with them while his team works out a solution on the side.
Kennedy provides the leadership for the team by communicating his vision for what he wants—namely to preserve the peace of the world by preventing the tensions that from escalating into war if possible. Peace is his primary goal, if it can be maintained, and he makes that clear to his team immediately the advisors leave. He does not have to outline it in specific terms but he communicates to them what is at stake if his pushy advisors are given leeway to have at the Soviet Union as they see fit. His team understands the stakes and is just as committed as he is to preserving the peace. They set to work in their own ways, doing what they can within their own spheres of influence to ensure that the advisors cannot come back at the President to insist that he take swift and dramatic action against the Soviets.
Kennedy first agrees to a blockade because it strikes him as the least potentially fatal course of action. It appears initially to work—but only initially, because the threat of missiles remaining in Cuba is still present. Meanwhile the military readies for war by elevating defenses to DEFCON 2 and by testing nuclear strike capabilities. A message is received first from a Soviet emissary, then from Khrushchev and then from the Politburo. Kennedy decides to respond to the message believed to be from Khrushchev as this seems the safest course of action. However, he knows he is running out of time as the military generals continue to press their cause, wearing him down by indicating that a failure to act could be more devastating to the US than the potential fallout from a first-strike. He finally agrees to an air strike—but not an immediate one: it is to be carried out on the following Monday. That gives him a few days to see what his team can do. First, he wants more reconnaissance.
O’Donnell knows that the Joint Chiefs will use any excuse to get their war, and he warns the President that further reconnaissance is a set up. Thus, even when the reconnaissance flight is shot down and that Friday the Chiefs demand retaliation, Kennedy is prepared. His preparation is due in part to O’Donnell’s ability to be a fly on the wall, so to speak: he has eyes and ears on all the key players and understands what their motives are and how they will act. He supports Kennedy in his vision to maintain the peace and thus provides the President with key persuasive information regarding how the Chiefs will react and how they will put pressure on him to respond to any fire upon US aerial forces. This communication between Kennedy and O’Donnell gives the decision-maker important perspective on the matter that enables him to maintain his calm even in the face of increased aggression by the Chiefs. Kennedy’s decision after the reconnaissance plane is shot down is the simplest and most sensible one: he sends his brother Robert to negotiate with the Soviet Ambassador that night.
The Soviet Ambassador insists that the missiles in Turkey be withdrawn. Bobby knows the US cannot accept these terms because it would appear weak on the world’s stage. However, he realizes that this is their only chance to arrive at a peaceable solution. He informs the Ambassador that while officially the US cannot agree to these terms it will do so unofficially and remove its obsolete missiles in Turkey and tell the world that this removal was planned separately from the crisis in Cuba. He informs the Ambassador that this decision has the full support of the President and he assures him that there will be no invasion of Cuba if the Soviets likewise agree to remove their missiles. Robert has the full faith of his brother to make this decision and he is able to negotiate in this manner because the President has delegated authority to him. Again, the team has a high degree of trust in one another to achieve the vision of the President and this allows them the room they need to respond to their situations by making decisions on the fly.
The strategy works and before the US can proceed with an air strike on Monday, the Soviets announce their plans to withdraw missiles on Sunday. The air strike is called off and an invasion of Cuba is neutralized. Kennedy celebrates his victory in overcoming the calls for war by acting diplomatically to ease tensions and create a win-win situation for the US and for the Soviets. The US gets the missiles out of Cuba without military intervention, and the Soviets get US missiles out of Cuba without having to go to war as well.
Part 3: Effectiveness
The team was effective in accomplishing its goal, even though there were hiccups along the way. Even though Robert and Ken both had the trust of the President, they also disagreed with one another on how to proceed. Robert was more sympathetic to the calls for a first strike option as a way to mitigate the potential of a disastrous attack on America by the Soviets. Ken was more sympathetic to the President’s vision of peace—but both men were true to their word and agreed that the President had the final say and if he made a decision it was their job to carry it out. That is why Ken drives Robert to make the final negotiation with the Ambassador: it is a moment in which they reach an understanding with one another to set personal differences aside and do that which the President wants.
Part of the reason there are hiccups along the way, however, is because there are so many different perspectives competing for the President’s attention. Furthermore, passions and tensions are ratcheted up so that everyone’s nerves are on the verge of breaking. The team is nearly convinced that all may be lost as the situation worsens and the military appears to have what it needs to insist upon a strike.
However, the loyalty of Ken and Robert to the President is what ends up saving the day for his vision. Ken supports the President by warning him of what the Chiefs are up to in terms of using the reconnaissance mission as a way to drive fire from Cuba and thus justify an attack in response. Ken also plays a part in warning the pilots not to report fire so as to reduce the risk of provocation being reported. Robert, meanwhile, is given the final authority by the President to negotiate on his behalf for terms of peace—even though Robert senses that the Chiefs might be right in their demand for a first strike. Robert sets aside his own personal beliefs to act on the President’s behalf to bring about the solution the President wants. Robert does this well in his meeting with the Ambassador. He sees that his refusal to agree to Soviet demands will cause the negotiation to end in failure, and he knows the President wants a successful negotiation—so he backtracks carefully and presents an alternative solution that both sides can agree upon and that will allow the US to save face even as it gives in to Soviet demands regarding missiles in Turkey. It is a creative solution that Robert devises that nonetheless allows him to remain true to the mission given him by his brother.
The only recommendations I would make for the group would be that more accommodations for dealing with stress be provided. This may not always be possible especially in an inherently stressful situation—but it is important to remember that in any trying situation there is going to be stress and team members have to have a way to deal with stress in a healthy manner. Some of the group turn to alcohol or deny themselves rest, and as anxiety mounts it is missteps towards dealing with stress in unhealthy ways that can lead to poor decision making as the group comes down under the wire. The hiccups along the way could be attributed to improper handling of stress from the outset. The tension is palpable from the beginning, but instead of proceeding by taking some de-stressing steps the group barrels on. If some de-stressing had been conducted at the outset, it might have enabled the group to avoid having to risk (and lose) the life of the reconnaissance pilot, who was sent into harm’s way mainly to forestall the Chiefs. De-stressing might also have given the group the calm and conviction the President required to take the first steps towards détente with Khrushchev and thus negotiate with the hostile foreign power openly and candidly.
References
Donaldson, R. (2000). Thirteen Days. New Line Cinemas.