Australian Foreign Policy Outlook: 2011–2031 Analysis

Introduction

The next two decades will be challenging for the foreign policymakers of middle powers as the balance of power ebbs and flows between the West and the East. These shifts in power will make long-term planning difficult, and even short-term plans will require numerous contingencies in order to remain responsive in an increasingly globalized and highly dynamic environment. Because no crystal ball exists to help foreign policymakers forecast the future, it is important for Australia to develop such contingency plans today — plans that respond to these changes in meaningful ways while keeping the best interests of the Australian citizenry in the forefront.

To this end, this paper sets forth a proposed foreign policy for Australia for the next twenty years, including supporting rationale for the different approaches described below. A summary of the research and salient findings is presented in the conclusion.

Generalist Overview of Current Australian Foreign Policy

In order to present a generalist overview of current Australian foreign policy, an operationalization of the term itself is required. McDougall (2009) notes that "the Australian study of foreign policy has always been part of the broader field of international relations in this country. By foreign policy I mean the ways in which governments have attempted to achieve their objectives in relation to the international environment" (p. 375). Because foreign policy objectives are inextricably related to national interests, this definition must be expanded to include the influence that domestic policies and political interests play in shaping a country's foreign policy. McDougall adds that "foreign policy by definition focuses on the behaviour of states, although students of foreign policy can give attention to the impact of domestic politics on such behaviour. Similarly, if one focuses on the global environment more generally, foreign policy analysts will certainly emphasise the role of states but can also take account of the whole range of political actors" (p. 376).

In reality, foreign policy is a relatively recent addition to the political apparatus that drives Australia (Firth, 2005). It was not until the 1920s or so that Australia developed what could be viewed as a coherent foreign policy — but acquiring a foreign policy was not the same as acquiring the ability to exercise it at will. As Devetak notes, "Australia's acquisition of an international voice should not be confused, however, with international recognition of independence. By the mid-1930s, the very idea of an 'Australian foreign policy' began to grow in plausibility and appeal. Still, arguments in favour of an independent Australian foreign policy had to be carefully worded to avoid accusations of 'anti-Britishness'" (p. 336). The nation's significant sacrifices during World War II further reinforced the need for a viable foreign policy in a fundamentally reorganized world order, as well as the need for a more independent foreign policy free of British influence following the war's conclusion.

According to Devetak, "the experience of the Second World War hastened Australia's emergence as an independent state. It acquired its own foreign policy bureaucracy, and was clearly formally sovereign. As far as foreign policy analysis was concerned, there continued to be a very strong focus on the concerns of the Australian government and community" (p. 376). Another so-called "great and powerful friend" would replace Britain, however, thereby diminishing the complete independence of Australia's foreign policy during the second half of the twentieth century (Rosati, Link & Creed, 1999). McDougall reports that "during the Cold War the United States assumed the role of Australia's major ally. There was clearly some concern with Britain as one of Australia's 'great and powerful friends,' particularly during the 1960s when Britain first applied to join the European Economic Community and then announced its decision to withdraw its military forces from east of Suez. However, the main preoccupation for Australian governments was to maintain and develop the relationship with the U.S." (2009, p. 376).

The other areas that gained prominence in the foreign policy arena during the second half of the twentieth century were the developments taking place throughout Asia (McDougall, 2009). While Japan became linked with the United States by virtue of a mutual security agreement in the early 1950s — renewed in 1960 — the main areas of interest for Australian foreign policymakers were the emergence of China as a regional power and a newly independent Indonesia (McDougall, 2009). This setting represented a three-pronged challenge for Australian foreign policymakers as they balanced the shifting interests represented by Asia (particularly China) and the changing relationships between that region and the U.S. and Britain (McDougall, 2009).

Based on the foreign policies in place throughout the second half of the twentieth century, Australia contributed military forces to: (a) the Korean War (1950–53); (b) the Malayan Emergency during the 1950s; and (c) the Vietnam War (from the mid-1960s) (McDougall, 2009). Taken together, these foreign policy initiatives were based on a forward defence strategy in which perceived threats to Australia's internal security were fought abroad — an approach that would characterize this period in Australia's history (McDougall, 2009).

By the turn of the twenty-first century, new threats to Australia's security demanded a further reevaluation of existing policies in response to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 and Australia's relationships with the United States and Britain (Gyngell & Wesley, 2003). The importance of formulating reasoned and balanced foreign policies in response to these and other emerging threats — such as nuclear-equipped North Korea and aspiring nuclear states in the Middle East such as Iran — became abundantly clear. Developing relevant long-term foreign policies in a world where the forces of globalization are creating major changes in the balance of power and trade is a challenging enterprise, and the decisions made today have enormous implications for the future. The Australian Department of Defence's White Paper states clearly that "defence planning is, by its very nature, a complex and long-term business. Defence planning is one area of public policy where decisions taken in one decade have the potential to affect, for good or ill, Australia's sovereignty and freedom of action for decades to come" (Defending Australia in the Asia Pacific Century: Force 2030, 2009, p. 11).

Despite the difficulties involved in the process, there is a need for an informed and reasoned assessment of how the world will develop over the next twenty years in order to craft foreign policies capable of responding to new conditions (Berger & Borer, 1999). As the Australian Defence Department's White Paper concludes, "the Government must make careful judgements about Australia's long-term defence needs. Such judgements are even more important in times of fiscal or strategic uncertainty" (Defending Australia in the Asia Pacific Century: Force 2030, 2009, p. 11). Identifying the significant changes likely to affect Australia's national interests over the next two decades — and understanding the implications of those changes for the nation's foreign policy — is therefore essential.

Conclusion

The research showed that a middle power such as Australia must walk a middle road in the future — one that balances the need to fulfill the nation's responsibilities to the international community and to safeguard the institutions of democracy around the world, while avoiding entanglements in which the country has no compelling interests. There are a number of approaches that could be used to achieve this objective, but the research was also clear in showing that the decisions taken today will have enormous consequences in the long term, many of which may be irreversible and all of which will undoubtedly be costly in one way or another.

Rather than hitching Australia's foreign policy wagon exclusively to the American, British, or Chinese horse, the research showed that it is not only possible for Australia to pursue an independent foreign policy in the future — it will likely be in its best interests to do so, while the major powers compete on economic and potentially military battlefields. Developing a flexible, self-reliant posture that retains meaningful multilateral commitments offers Australia the most viable path forward through 2031.

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