Brexit: Causes of the British Vote to Leave the EU

Introduction to Brexit and the 2016 Referendum

Brexit was the referendum vote that saw the United Kingdom pull out of the European Union. The European Union (EU) is a regional trade agreement bringing together various European nations. The formation of the union saw the elimination of most barriers to the movement of labor, capital, and goods between member states. It harmonized the laws, rules, and standards governing trade among member nations. Most member states use the Euro as their currency, with the United Kingdom being a notable exception (Ries, 2016).

The Brexit referendum was held on 23 June 2016, and the central question was whether the UK ought to leave or remain in the EU. Approximately 17.41 million voters chose Leave while 16.41 million voted Remain. There was a political calculation behind the referendum: the then Prime Minister, David Cameron, hoped that the results would halt the growth of the populist movement largely led by the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) (Offe, 2016).

Cutts (2016) observes that the political environment was highly volatile in the period leading up to the referendum. The UK had experienced an extended period of economic growth and prosperity, yet a large portion of the electorate felt that they had been left behind and had not benefited from that prosperity. They began to distrust mainstream political party leaders, and the disconnect between ordinary voters and political elites widened considerably. UKIP, a right-wing populist party, became the voice of the disenfranchised and grew very popular among those who would later vote Leave. Nigel Farage, UKIP's leader, portrayed Europe as the main source of the UK's troubles and argued that the country would lose key aspects of its sovereignty by remaining in the European Union. By aggressively promoting their anti-European stance, UKIP broadened its populist base while maintaining its credibility as a mainstream political party.

Causes of Brexit

Several arguments have been put forward to explain why so many Britons voted to exit the European Union. Roff (2016) surveyed 12,369 UK voters on referendum day and found that one of the main reasons driving the Leave vote was the belief that the United Kingdom ought to remain a self-governing and fully sovereign entity, not beholden to any outside authority in matters of regulation or economics. This belief was shared by nearly all Leave voters regardless of party affiliation. Other voters stated that their decision to vote Leave was a vote against the interference of "big government" in their local affairs.

One-third of the voters stated explicitly that voting Leave was their best chance for the UK to fully regain control of its borders and immigration policy. Immigration was a central subject throughout the referendum debate. Because EU citizens are free to work in any member state, the United Kingdom — offering more economic opportunities than many other nations in the bloc — became a net importer of immigrants, and many Britons viewed this imbalance as unfair. The UK had experienced a significant influx of immigrants from Eastern and Central Europe as people sought better employment. Additionally, civil strife in Syria and Iraq produced a large refugee crisis, and when the EU decided to distribute refugees across member states, many Britons opposed the arrangement. Leaving the European Union, they believed, would place the United Kingdom in a stronger position to determine its own immigration policy (Wincott, Peterson, & Convery, 2017).

Aspaker et al. (2016) observe that several voters felt they had been left behind, and that globalization and immigration policies imposed by Brussels had caused the breakdown of their local communities. These pressures were also straining public services and increasing competition for low-wage jobs. While immigrants had contributed — and continue to contribute — substantially to the British economy, the positive impact did not register in communities that already felt economically marginalized. Not only did these communities feel economically abandoned, they also felt excluded from the political discourse by a remote elite.

Economic Disenfranchisement and the Left-Behind Voters

Analysts continue to identify immigration concerns and the desire for self-determination as key factors behind the Leave vote. Chu (2016) notes that research by economists Brian Bell and Stephen Machin reveals that Leave support was strongest in regions that had recorded the lowest wage growth since 1997. These statistics support the broader conclusion that the Leave vote was, in significant part, a protest by people who felt they had been economically left behind and who believed that mainstream political leaders were indifferent to their plight.

Aspaker et al. (2016) also note that many voters perceived globalization and the conditions attached to EU membership as forces that benefited cosmopolitan elites while harming working-class communities. The sense of being economically and politically overlooked created fertile ground for a populist message that promised to "take back control" — a slogan that resonated deeply with voters in post-industrial regions where wage stagnation had persisted for nearly two decades.

Conclusion: Consequences and Future Outlook

Brexit has prompted analysts to ponder what kind of power the United Kingdom will become following its decision to leave the European Union. Historically, the move has been likened to the fall of the Berlin Wall. Political discussion in Britain has since focused on repairing the damage that may have been caused by the heated rhetoric of the campaign, as well as on understanding the social and economic effects of the vote. It is clear that the result was a significant blow to those who had been advocating for the UK's participation in an ever-closer European Union. It is likely that the EU, in an effort to discourage future departures, may adopt tougher positions in trade negotiations with the United Kingdom. This could produce an unintended outcome: the United Kingdom forging closer trade relationships outside of Europe. Given the complexity of the negotiations, how new political and trade alliances will ultimately be shaped remains speculative (Cutts, 2016).

Aspaker et al. (2016) suggest that the referendum did not fundamentally alter the relationship between the United Kingdom and its European neighbors. The broader desire for a stable Europe will compel all parties toward cooperation in pursuit of mutually beneficial positions. Instability carries real costs, particularly given the range of crises whose effects could spill over into Europe — including civil strife in Syria and Ukraine and the ongoing threat posed by terrorist organizations. All parties also need to find a lasting solution to the refugee situation, as the number of refugees arriving from Africa, Asia, and the Middle East continues to grow each year. The geographical location of the United Kingdom ensures that issues affecting the rest of Europe will inevitably have consequences for Britain as well.

Leaving the European Union also creates a messaging problem for the United Kingdom. On the one hand, the UK continues to advocate for enhanced international communication and cooperation. On the other hand, it has initiated a process to leave one of the most advanced multilateral systems in modern history. The European Union, though imperfect, is widely regarded as a model for multinational cooperation. Promoting multilateralism while departing from a multilateral framework — on the grounds that its rules are too constraining — risks appearing disingenuous (Aspaker et al., 2016).

The strategic challenges the United Kingdom faces as a result of its decision to leave the European Union cannot be minimized. The UK already confronts a rapidly evolving domestic political environment, and the remaining EU member states will naturally prioritize their own interests as new agreements are negotiated. The terms of those agreements will be debated by historians, politicians, and economists for years to come. The EU is likely to push for terms that discourage other members from following Britain's example. How the UK cultivates its relationship with the EU going forward will demand considerable diplomatic skill. It will also be important to observe how the UK continues to meet its international obligations in areas such as crisis management and collective security (Aspaker et al., 2016).

References

Aspaker, A., Denver, D., Garnett, M., Runcimann, D., Barber, S., Lord, C., Wright, N., Todd, J., O'Hara, G., Hertner, I., & Harvey, M. (2016). The Brexit drama and the dawn of a new era. Journal of the British Politics Society, Norway, 11(3), 1–24. Retrieved from http://www.britishpoliticssociety.no/British%20Politics%20Review%2003_2016.pdf

Chu, B. (2016, June 26). Why did people really vote for Brexit? If we don't face the psychological reasons, we'll never bring Britain together. The Independent. Retrieved from http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-eu-referendum-why-did-people-vote-leave-immigration-nhs-a7104071.html

Cutts, D. (2016, June 29). Brexit! The result and its implications. E-International Relations. Retrieved from http://www.e-ir.info/2016/06/29/brexit-the-result-and-its-implications/

Offe, C. (2016, December 9). Brexit and the weaknesses of referenda. Global Policy Journal. Retrieved from http://www.globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/09/12/2016/brexit-and-weaknesses-referenda

Ries, J. (2016). Brexit: Causes and consequences. Sauder School of Business. Retrieved from https://sauderalumnicareers.ca/sites/files/general/Brexit%20Presentation%20Slides_1.pdf

Roff, P. (2016, June 30). Brexit was about Britain. US News & World Report. Retrieved from https://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2016-06-30/poll-shows-brexit-vote-was-about-british-sovereignty-not-anti-immigration

Wincott, D., Peterson, J., & Convery, A. (2017). Introduction: Studying Brexit's causes and consequences. The British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 1–5.