Improving Carbon Management to Mitigate Climate Change

Introduction: The Global Climate Change Situation

The aim of this green paper is to improve carbon management and help facilitate the transition towards a low-carbon economy in the UK. Although this green paper represents a tentative government report of a proposal without any commitment to action, it is the first step in changing the law to improve carbon management and mitigate climate change. The growing body of evidence concerning the reality of global climate change demands action today (Lindsay 2005; Lynas 2004). The implications of global climate change, even in the relative near-term, are profound. In this regard, Jenkins emphasizes that "many people are intensely interested in predicting the likely consequences of global climate change during the next 50 to 100 years. These consequences include many changes in natural environments, as well as potential effects on human health" (2004, 11).

Indeed, some scientists believe the world is a ticking time-bomb and that time is running out for the human race (Mank 2005; Hogue 2007). While other researchers caution that things are not as dire as alarmists might believe (Behreandt 2006; Michaels 2004), the fact remains that there is incontrovertible proof from around the globe that the earth has become warmer by about one-half a degree Fahrenheit over the past century or so (Schueneman 2009). For example, Jordan emphasizes that "the evidence is overwhelming that the Earth's surface is warmer today than it was a century ago. Research by thousands of scientists strongly suggests that the cause is the largely uncontrolled and still increasing release of anthropogenic (human-caused) greenhouse gases. Yet there remain a few scientists who oppose these conclusions" (2005, 24). In its most recent report on global climate change, the UK-based Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated: "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level" (quoted in Jones 2010, 2).

Although that may not sound like much, this slight increase in temperature — together with the continuing emission of greenhouse gases by humanity — may have set into motion a series of irreversible events that threatens the future of all humankind. For example, the polar ice caps are melting and the permafrost that covers much of Alaska, Canada, and Siberia is also melting. The former phenomenon is causing global ocean levels to rise, threatening coastal cities, while the latter may release an incalculable amount of additional greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, further accelerating the global warming process. Overall global temperatures have been on the increase for the past century and more, as recorded by the NASA meteorological station network.

Although both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres have experienced higher temperatures over the past century and a half, this increase in temperatures has been far more pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere, where the industrialized nations of the United States, China, Japan, Russia, the UK, and the European Union are located.

According to Phil Jones of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia (UEA), these temperature increases have set a number of records in recent years, including the following:

1. The period from 2001 to 2009 (0.43°C above the 1961–1990 mean) was 0.19°C warmer than the period from 1991 to 2000 (0.24°C above the 1961–1990 mean).
2. The warmest complete decade in the series was the 1990s.
3. With a temperature of 0.55°C above the 1961–1990 mean, 1998 was the warmest year of the entire series.
4. Fourteen of the past fifteen warmest years in the series occurred in the period 1995–2009.
5. The single year among the last 14 years not recorded among the 14 warmest was 1996, which was replaced in the series by 1990 (Jones 2010).

Although the earth has experienced cyclical climate changes throughout its multibillion-year history, a growing consensus of authorities agrees that the temperature increases experienced over the past century and a half have been caused by anthropogenic (i.e., manmade) activities that largely followed the introduction of the Industrial Revolution. In this regard, Jones emphasizes that "most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. Most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations" (2010, 3). These manmade changes to global temperature patterns have had broad-based implications. Jones further notes that "discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes, and wind patterns" (2010, 2–3).

Besides the foregoing evidence, other changes in the physical environment also support the conclusion that the earth is becoming warmer. Jenkins notes that "the worldwide decline of amphibian populations that has been documented in the past 20 years is an early symptom of pervasive effects of global climate change on natural environments" (2004, 54). Taken together, it is reasonable to suggest that global climate change is a harsh reality that confronts all humankind, and the decisions made by policymakers today will have vitally important implications in the coming decades — particularly in countries such as the UK, where climate change has been especially pronounced.

Climate Change in the United Kingdom

On the one hand, the trends in climate change that have taken place throughout the UK over the past century and a half represent an immediate as well as a long-term threat to the environment (Allen, Seaman & Delascio 2009). On the other hand, the UK also stands to benefit in substantive ways from global climate change. The UK government reports that "the global market for low carbon and environmental goods and services is already worth £3 trillion. The UK has led the way in taking the opportunities that this market presents, and by the middle of the next decade over a million people in this country could be employed in the low carbon and green manufacturing sectors" (Miliband, Mandelson & Denham 2009, 2). Moreover, the UK is well situated to contribute to long-term initiatives designed to mitigate carbon emissions domestically as well as around the world. Miliband et al. also note that "our strong regulatory framework already makes the UK a leading destination for green investment which, coupled with a tradition of innovation, world-leading universities and a skilled workforce, gives us the potential to lead the world as a low carbon economy" (2009, 2).

In order to achieve the mutually beneficial goals of contributing to a solution to global climate change while reaping an economic return on these investments, a thoughtful approach is required. The UK is well placed to embrace these opportunities. According to the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change, during 2008–2009 the world's sixth-largest Low Carbon and Environmental Goods and Services (LCEGS) sector was located in the UK, with an annual value of approximately £112 billion — representing a yearly increase of 4.3% versus comparable figures for 2007–2008. The LCEGS sector in the UK is also responsible for employing almost one million workers (approximately 910,000 people), a figure expected to grow to more than one million employees by 2015 (a low-carbon UK 2011, 2). Likewise, the Department of Energy and Climate Change has taken steps to encourage organisations of all types and sizes to reduce carbon emissions and recognize the growth opportunities represented by global climate change through (a) regulatory avenues; (b) the establishment of market-based mechanisms; (c) the provision of incentives; and (d) the dissemination of relevant and timely information, advice, and support to facilitate the development of low-carbon goods and services and promote their adoption throughout the UK (a low-carbon UK 2011).

Given the heavily industrialized nature of the UK economy, there is clearly an inextricable relationship between actions taken to mitigate carbon emissions and economic productivity throughout the country. The Central England Temperature (CET) has increased by approximately one degree Celsius since 1980; in fact, the year 2006 was the warmest on record (Central England temperature 2010). Some salient trends represented by these historic weather patterns include:

1. Following a period of relative long-term stability for most of the 20th century, CET has increased by about one degree Celsius since the 1980s — a more rapid rise than that of the global average land-surface temperature over the same period, and considerably faster than that of the global mean temperature.
2. The annual mean CET of 10.82°C in 2006 was 1.35 ± 0.18°C above the 1961–1990 average, and was the warmest in the 348-year series.
3. The fifteen warmest calendar years in the series are, in order: 2006, 1990/1999, 1949, 2002, 1997, 1995, 1989/2003, 1959/2004, 1733/1834/1921, and 2005. Several of these high-ranking years are too long ago to have had any significant contribution from manmade warming, reflecting the large natural variability of climate over a small area such as the CET region.
4. The years 2006 and 2007 saw a number of records in the CET monthly series broken.
5. July 2006 was the warmest month since observations began, with a mean temperature of 19.7°C; September 2006 was the warmest September on record; Autumn 2006 was the warmest Autumn on record; and April 2007 was the warmest April on record (Central England temperature 2010, 3).

Besides the calendar-year averages described above, the monthly CET data set has also been organized into successive 12-month rolling averages that reveal further clear trends. Based on this amplified analysis, the year-long period ending in April 2007 was the warmest such period on record (Central England temperature 2010). In sharp contrast to the meticulous data collection that has taken place in Central England since 1880, no corresponding effort has been made for regions other than Central England to attribute recent trends to specific causes. However, similar warming patterns are discernible in Scotland and Northern Ireland, suggesting that the global warming process in the UK is not localized to Central England but has become a regionalized problem (Temperature in Scotland & Northern Ireland 2010).

In response to these trends, the UK government has taken some preliminary steps to help reduce the short- and long-term threats represented by the continuing emission of carbon, as discussed further below.

Reducing Carbon Dioxide Emissions: The Climate Change Act

The Climate Change Act 2008 established emission reduction targets for 2020 (a reduction of 34% in greenhouse gas emissions) and for 2050 (a reduction of at least 80% in greenhouse gas emissions), and introduced five-yearly carbon budgets that are legally enforceable in order to ensure those targets are achieved (a low-carbon UK 2011). At present, the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) is collaborating with other governmental agencies to facilitate the transition to a low-carbon economy throughout the UK. A concomitant aspect of this legislation is to ensure that the UK benefits from the business and employment opportunities represented by the changes in global climate patterns in recent years (a low-carbon UK 2011).

Conclusion

The jury on global climate change is in and the vote was not even close. A growing body of incontrovertible evidence confirms that the world's climate is changing and that these changes will have significant implications for humankind in the coming decades. As the world searches for viable alternative energy sources, increasing demand for fossil fuels in burgeoning economic powerhouses such as China, India, Brazil, and Indonesia will continue to accelerate global warming patterns until drastic steps are taken. Because people are reluctant to accept changes in their modern lifestyles, the success of these initiatives will depend in large part on how effectively the message is conveyed that while the sky is not yet falling, it will be soon unless aggressive action is taken to mitigate carbon emissions around the world.

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