U.S. Public Opinion on the Iraq War: 2003–2022

Background

The research question for this paper is: "What is the public opinion on the war in Iraq across the last few administrations, as well as the public opinion on presidential handling of the troop withdrawal from Iraq?" To answer this question, the Roper iPoll database was consulted using a keyword search of "war in Iraq" covering the years 2002 to 2022. Some background on the war in Iraq is helpful for understanding the context of the data drawn from these polls.

Public opinion on the war in Iraq has been highly divided and has changed significantly over time. Initially, in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, a large majority of Americans supported the decision to invade Iraq, believing that Saddam Hussein posed a threat to national security. However, as the war dragged on and no weapons of mass destruction were found, support for the war declined significantly (Pew Research, 2008; Voeten & Brewer, 2006).

During the Obama administration, a majority of Americans believed that the war was not worth fighting and wanted a swift withdrawal of troops. However, there were also concerns about the potential destabilization of the region and the rise of extremist groups like ISIS if U.S. forces were to leave too soon.

During the Trump administration, public opinion on the war in Iraq remained mixed, with some Americans supporting the decision to withdraw troops and others expressing concern about the potential for a resurgence of extremist groups in the region.

Overall, public opinion on the handling of the war in Iraq and the withdrawal of troops is highly dependent on political beliefs and individual experiences. Some viewed withdrawal as a necessary step toward bringing stability to the region, while others believed the war was a mistake from the outset and questioned the wisdom of continued involvement.

Public Opinion on the Iraq War Over Time

Topline data on this matter indicates that from 2008—at the end of the Bush administration—through the Obama administration and into the Trump administration in 2017, Americans' views on the Iraq War largely receded into the background amid other pressing issues. In 2008, the war was first and foremost in the minds of voters (ABC News/Washington Post, 2008). However, by 2017, only 1% of Americans considered Iraq to be of much concern at all (CNN, 2017). The topline data is supported by Pew Research as well. Public opinion indicates that the majority of Americans felt the invasion was the right decision in 2003 (Pew Research, 2008). By the time of the 2008 election, however, the Iraq War had become the most important issue to voters, who seemingly wanted a change of approach, with the majority of Americans now regretting the war (ABC News/Washington Post, 2008; Pew Research, 2008). All of this data together shows a dramatic shift in public opinion—from overwhelming approval in 2003 to majority opposition in 2008 to apparent indifference in 2017. The war spans nearly a generation, and this too could have an impact on evolving attitudes.

Graph 1. Iraq War as Biggest Issue.

In terms of what is known about American public opinion on foreign policy overall, these polls align well with whatever the major issues of the day were. In 2008, Iraq was a dominant issue, and voters viewed the election as a referendum on the Bush administration's approach to the war. However, as little changed under Obama, Americans lost interest and focused on other concerns, particularly healthcare—another defining issue of the Obama years. Examining the topline data more closely, however, provides a fuller picture of opinion on this matter.

A 2017 CNN survey asked respondents: "What one issue do you feel is the most important issue facing the country today?" Only 2% answered "war," and only 1% answered "terrorism in Iraq." By 2017, most Americans likely had no idea that any troops still remained in Iraq, based on these responses. In fact, the biggest issue for Americans was healthcare (24%)—not surprising given that the Affordable Care Act (ACA), colloquially known as Obamacare, was somewhat unpopular, and Donald Trump had campaigned in part on dismantling it.

This finding was down from 2015, when 6% of respondents to a CBS News survey (2015) cited ISIS in Iraq/Syria as the most important problem facing the United States.

A Gallup survey from 2014 showed only 1% of respondents concerned specifically with the war in Iraq. A 2013 survey conducted by 60 Minutes/Vanity Fair found that only 5% of respondents believed the 2003 Iraq War was the most necessary war in American history; 33% chose World War II, and 23% chose the Revolutionary War. This suggests that by 2013, Americans did not regard Iraq as particularly significant in terms of the country's honor and place in history.

Graph 2. Which war is most important.

Over this short span of five years, one thus observes a very small percentage of Americans expressing any concern about the Iraq War. Across two administrations—Obama to Trump—the concern was negligible, almost as though soldiers still serving in Iraq had faded entirely from the public consciousness.

It was a very different situation for voters in 2008, when an ABC News/Washington Post survey asked: "Is there one other issue that's nearly as important in your choice for President in 2008?" Twenty percent of respondents cited the Iraq War as the most important issue—more than any other topic. By that point, as Pew Research (2008) documented, Americans had grown significantly more disillusioned with the war: from a high of 72% supporting the invasion in 2003 as the right decision, by 2008 only 38% still felt that way. Those who considered it the wrong decision had grown from 22% in 2003 to 54% in 2008. Clearly, many had come to believe that the invasion—premised on Saddam Hussein possessing weapons of mass destruction—had been poorly conceived. It is therefore not surprising that in 2008 the Iraq War was the defining issue for voters. The majority of Americans regretted the U.S. presence in Iraq by that point. The Bush doctrine had not retained the public's support. Americans had been initially galvanized by 9/11—motivated to act, to do something, to demonstrate opposition to terrorism and seek retribution for the fall of the Twin Towers. By 2008, however, the majority of Americans viewed Iraq as the wrong choice.

Graph 3. Change in American opinion on the Iraq War.

Demographic Group Variation

A CNN/USA Today survey (2006) posed the following question: "Since the war in Iraq began in 2003, have you, personally, done any of the following, or not? How about…publicly opposed the war by participating in a demonstration or writing to a public official?"

The data from this Gallup poll—sponsored by CNN and USA Today in 2006—shows that 87% of respondents answered NO, indicating they had taken no political action to oppose the war in Iraq. Among those who answered YES, the age bracket of 50–64 recorded the highest rate (15%), with 58 respondents out of a total of 985 indicating they had expressed opposition to the war in some way.

Education was a significant factor among those who answered YES: 21% of respondents with a college degree or higher had expressed opposition to the war publicly, compared with only 8% of those who had only a high school diploma. This suggests that higher educational attainment was associated with a greater likelihood of holding and expressing anti-war opinions. Nevertheless, the poll still found that 79% of those with a college degree or higher had done nothing to oppose the war in a public manner.

Ideology was another major factor: 31% of those identifying as Liberal answered YES—they had publicly opposed the war in some way—compared with only 4% of those identifying as Conservative. Among those identifying as Moderate, 12% answered YES. In terms of party identification, Independents reported the highest rate of public opposition (18%), followed closely by Democrats (17%), while only 5% of Republicans answered YES. Regionally, respondents on the East Coast (18%) and West Coast (17%) were most likely to have publicly opposed the war, while those in the Midwest and South answered YES only 9–10% of the time.

Graph 4. Public expressions of opposition to the Iraq War in 2006 by demographic.

Interestingly, the ideological divide was far less pronounced in the ABC News/Washington Post poll from 2008, in which respondents identified the Iraq War as the most important issue for the upcoming presidential election: 19% of Conservatives held this view, compared with 21% of Moderates and 22% of Liberals. Even more notable is that only 15% of Democrats considered the Iraq War the most important issue in 2008, while 19% of Republicans and 23% of Independents felt it was (ABC News/Washington Post, 2008). This suggests that Democrats in 2008 prioritized other issues, while Republicans and Independents wanted some resolution to the Iraq War before the end of Bush's two terms. It reflects what might be described as buyer's remorse on the part of a broad cross-section of Americans.

In terms of gender, the CNN/USA Today (2006) poll showed virtually no difference: 13% of both males and females answered YES. Income was similarly not a meaningful factor, with YES responses ranging roughly from 10% to 15% across all income brackets from under $30,000 to over $75,000 per year. Race and ethnicity were not measured in this poll. There was likewise no meaningful gender divide in the ABC News/Washington Post (2008) survey.

This demographic data suggests that public opposition to the war in Iraq in 2006—when expressed at all—was most prevalent among Independents and Liberals, and far less common among Conservatives. This is likely because President Bush was a Republican, and in 2008 Republicans lost the White House as Liberals, Democrats, and Independents rallied behind Obama. However, the 2008 ABC News/Washington Post poll does suggest that Republicans expressed their public opposition to the Iraq War in the most meaningful way available: by voting at the polls.

Conclusion

Overall, there is some alignment in how Americans view foreign policy based on the Purposeful Model of Public Opinion and engagement. However, other factors can significantly shape public opinion—including patriotism, media coverage, and domestic issues. Partisan politics and ideology play a role in shaping those views at times, but so too does the level of engagement that individuals have in seeking out information. Independents, in particular, appear most willing to seek out facts, perhaps because they have no fixed party affiliation pulling them in a predetermined direction.

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