What Will Happen When Peak Oil Is Reached?

¶ … program of study continues personal research and professional practice in the field of energy in general and alternative energy resources in particular. This study will serve to provide benchmarks concerning current energy usage patterns across the country to identify opportunity to introduce alternative energy resources such as hydrogen, geothermal, wind turbine farms, increased hydroelectric applications, biomass facilities, as well as solar and tidal energy resources.

Although predictions of peak oil vary, all signs currently indicate that the United States will be running out of cheap sources of fossil fuels in the foreseeable future and alternative energy resources must be brought online before that point is reached in order to satisfy the growing demand and avoid disruption of the nation's economy. Purpose of the Study The overarching purposes of the proposed study are to: A. Provide evidence in support of the deployment of alternative energy resources in urban and rural settings; B.

Formulate timely guidelines for the public and private sectors for collaborating in joint ventures to deploy alternative energy resources. Review of the Literature One of the harsh realities of living in the 21st century is the prospect of running out of the fossil fuel energy sources that the entire world has come to depend on for its very existence.

In this regard, Love and Garwood advise that, "The one-time gift of cheap fossil energy has fueled the wonders of our modern world: getting humans to the moon, transforming night into day and enabling historically unprecedented mobility" (294). Although innovations in extraction techniques have extended the availability of current supplies of fossil fuels, the point at which the world reaches peak oil, or the point at which half of the available supplies have already been extracted, looms in the foreseeable future (Love and Garwood 250).

In this regard, Deffeyes reports that, "After the peak, the world's production of crude oil will fall, never to rise again. The world will not run out of energy, but developing alternative energy sources on a large scale will take at least 10 years" (1). As noted above, industry experts remain divided concerning when the actual point at which peak oil will be reached, but some analysts believe that time is running out that peak oil may have already been reached.

As Deffeyes points out, "The slowdown in oil production may already be beginning; the current price fluctuations for crude oil and natural gas may be the preamble to a major crisis" (1). Likewise, other authorities maintain that although there remains a lack of consensus among industry analysts concerning when peak oil will be reached, the world's supplies of fossil fuels are finite and therefore peak oil is a reality that must be taken into account today to prevent worldwide catastrophe in the near future.

For instance, Santa-Barbara reports that, "The world is beginning to wake up to the fact that peak oil is real. Various financial institutions, as well as oil companies, independent geologists, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and a range of corporations eager to cash in on alternative energy sources have stressed its importance" (24). In response, there has been increasing attention paid to potential replacements for fossil fuels in the form of alternative energy technologies including most especially solar and wind power (Love and Garwood 250).

Different alternative energy resources, though, produce significantly different quantities and qualities of energy at sometimes vastly different costs (Love and Garwood 250). Moreover, an important point made by Deffeyes is that while there are abundant alternative energy resources available for exploitation to replace existing fossil fuel sources, virtually the entire world is dependent on fossil fuels to the extent that changing the infrastructure to support alternative energy resources represents an enormous undertaking that will inevitably require significant amounts of time.

In this regard, Deffeyes emphasizes that, "There are plenty of energy sources other than fossil fuels. Running out of energy in the long run is not the problem. The bind comes [in] getting over our dependence on crude oil" (176). Some industry analysts project that it will require a least 10 years to make the transition from fossil fuel dependence to alternative energy resources, and that decade might represent the beginning of worldwide turmoil unless action is taken today to prevent a 10-year gap in energy supplies in the future.

Research Questions The proposed study will be guided the following research questions: A. What are the most promising sources of alternative energy resources that are currently available? B. How cost-effective are alternative energy resources compared to conventional energy sources? C. What funding methods have been used by local, state and federal government agencies for the deployment of alternative energy resources in the past? D. Are there any "success stories" in deploying alternative energy resources that can be used as models for others? The Design -- Methods and Procedures A.

Data Collection. The data needed to develop timely and informed answers to the proposed study's above-stated guiding research questions will be collected from public and university libraries, government Web sites and reliable online research resources such as EBSCOHost and Questia. The search terms to be used will include key words such as "alternative energy," "peak oil," "joint ventures," "public and private sectors," "solar power," "wind farms" and so forth. B. Data Analysis.

The documentary evidence collected as described above will be analyzed following the steps outlined by Noblit and Hare (1988) for qualitative synthesis they term "reciprocal interpretation" in which each study read helps informed the next study reviewed. Any quantitative data developed during the research process will be analyzed using SPSS Version 13.0 for Windows (Student Version) and the results presented in tabular form and depicted graphically in a series of graphs. VII. Limitations and Delimitations A.

The proposed study will be limited by its reliance of secondary data sources which will inevitably involve an element of researcher bias. For example, as Karimov, Brengman and Van Hove point out, "Any research synthesis contains some inherent bias because of the inclusion and exclusion criteria and the methods chosen to review the literature" (273). To help overcome this inherent bias, the proposed study will include positive and negative aspects of alternative energy resources. B.

Although the proposed study will examine alternative energy programs in other countries, the focus will be delimited to the United States. VIII. Significance of the Study While the jury is still out concerning the point at which peak oil will be reached, some authorities suggest that that point is already here and time is running out. For example, according to Deffeyes, "In 1956, the geologist M. King Hubbert predicted that U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s. Almost everyone, inside and outside the oil industry, rejected Hubbert's.