The Arguments For and Against Flying Cars

Will Flying Cars Ever Be a Feasible Means of Personal Transportation?

The concept of flying cars is certainly not new, and the historical record is replete with accounts of flying vehicles of various types in mythological and religious texts that date to antiquity. More recently, the flying cars featured in science fiction books, the television series, “The Jetsons” and the movie, “Blade Runner,” among numerous others, have popularized the idea with many American consumers, and the aviation industry is responding with hundreds of prototypes on the drawing board and dozens of flying car models already in production (Keil 2022). Despite these trends, though, it remains unclear whether flying cars for personal transportation will ever overcome the multiple challenges that confront the industry at present. The purpose of this paper is to review the literature to assess whether flying cars will ever be a feasible means of personal transportation. The arguments in support and against this proposition are followed by a summary of the research and the answer to this question in the conclusion.

Why Passenger Flying Cars Will Soon Be a Reality

Passenger flying cars are part of a rapidly emerging concept that has been termed “urban air mobility,” which involves the transportation of passengers and goods using various innovative aviation technologies, including most especially electric, rotor-powered vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) vehicles. In this regard, Jiang et al. (2023) report that the concept of urban air mobility “encompasses a diverse range of VTOL vehicles that function more like passenger-carrying drones for on-demand transportation. Among them, the car-like VTOL is advantageous due to its compact configuration, safe rotors, high user affinity, and technological fashion” (115).

In other words, flying cars are already a reality, and current trends indicate that the supply, if not the demand, for these vehicles will continue to increase well into the foreseeable future. Many companies in the aviation industry currently regard flying cars as “the next big thing” and are making significant investments in their own versions. In fact, according to one market analyst, “By some counts, a staggering 700 designs for electric/hybrid-electric flying vehicles are in development, and many are already in the air” (Coffey-Rosich 2022, 28). Moreover, the global market for flying cars was already estimated at more than $8.5 billion in 2021, and this figure is expected to increase to $30.8 billion by 2030 (Coffey-Rosich).

Some of the major actors that are actively involved in the research and development of flying cars include NASA, the U.S. Army, Airbus and Boeing, as well as smaller startups such as Opener and Lilium, all of which have completed test flights of flying cars in recent months (Ehline 2022). Likewise, Uber has also taken significant interest in flying cars and has announced plans to launch a fleet of air taxis that will cruise at up to 2,000 feet (Ehline).

All of the flying cars that are currently under development or commercial production have incorporated the latest photonics technologies including LiDAR sensors as well as visible-light and infrared cameras to improve the safety of their operation, meaning that “humans are overcoming the long-standing tradeoff between the promise of the Jetson mobile and the reality of flawed human drivers” (Coffey-Rosich 7). Unfortunately, despite this massive influx of interest and investments, flawed human drivers are among the least of the flying car industry’s problems and it is unlikely that these vehicles will ever be a feasible means of personal transportation for the reasons discussed below.

Why Passenger Flying Cars Will Never Be Feasible

Prior to the Wright brothers proving the concept, there were plenty of naysayers who predicted that the cumbersome airplane would “never get off the ground” for many of the same reasons that experts predict that flying cars for passengers will never be feasible in the future. While vehicular crashes on conventional highways can result in serious injury or death, drivers at least have a fighting chance of survival even under the worst circumstances. Likewise, fixed wing (e.g., airplanes) and rotary wing (e.g., helicopters) also have a reasonable chance of surviving a mechanical or other type of mid-air failure. Multi-engine aircraft, for example, can either continue flying with the loss of an engine (or two) or glide to a safe landing a la miracle on the Hudson, and skilled helicopter pilots can use an autorotation maneuver to safely land if their engines fail. Moreover, sophisticated jet aircraft have numerous redundancies built into their systems in case of system failure, accounting in large part for the aviation industry’s stellar safety track record (Pica and Kozuba 2019).

By very sharp contrast, a mechanical or electronics failure in a personal flying car would likely result in a catastrophic, uncontrolled plummet to the earth. Flying cars could neither glide safely to earth nor could they autorotate to a landing in the same fashion as conventional helicopters using their ducted fan lift system rotors (Jiang et al. 2023). In other words, flying cars that stop operating in mid-air are immediately transformed into so many rocks which succumb to gravity and suffer the devastating aftermath that ensues.

In addition, even the best batteries for electrically powered flying cars are heavy, and existing technology limits the ability of manufacturers to expand battery storage without compromising weight restrictions. The current distant limitations of fewer than 100 miles on most commercially available models of flying cars mean that there is no time for sightseeing, traffic jams or unforeseen eventualities that could eat up precious battery power even if everything operates perfectly. In other words, it is highly unlikely that these challenges can be overcome in the foreseeable future to the extent that passenger flying cars will ever be feasible, even if they are already a reality.

It is reasonable to suggest that few consumers would be willing to drive conventional cars if the highway dropped out from under them and they fell to their death when they ran out of gas, had a flat tire or their engine overheated, but this is essentially the calculus with flying cars. Not only is driving a car the most difficult – and dangerous – thing most people do on a daily basis, the proposition becomes even more challenging – and dangerous -- when up, down and sideways are added to the controls. Even assuming that fully autonomous passenger flying cars with 100 percent reliability in piloting are on the horizon, the only real difference would be that any catastrophic failure would be fully automatic.

It is not too far-fetched to envision a scenario wherein road rage incidents, intoxicated “pilots,” and otherwise bad drivers would cause deadly havoc in the skies. Indeed, even non-lethal accidents between flying cars would be costly. In this regard, Ehline emphasizes that, “There is a constant debate over the safety of flying cars, and many leaders argue that companies must perfect autonomous technology before taking these types of vehicles to the sky. This is highly important as a collision between two flying cars could be more costly in terms of life and property damage than car accidents on the road” (2022, 8). Indeed, it is difficult to envision any collision between two or more flying cars beyond a minor “fender-bender” that would not cause severe casualties and even death.

Taken together, it is reasonable to suggest that flying cars will never be sufficiently safe and reliable, which is to say 100 percent, to become a feasible means of passenger transportation, at least in the foreseeable future. Certainly, the same arguments were made against early air transportation, but the aviation industry’s safety track record is enviable, especially compared to the mayhem that is taking place on the nation’s highways. Indeed, it is well known that flying is the safest mode of commercial transportation currently available, but accidents can and do happen all the time even with the most rigorous safety programs in place. If flying cars are added to this mix, the potential for disaster is compounded geometrically, and large numbers of people would die and cause untold additional damage in the process when they hit the ground with their rock-like flying car.

Finally, proponents of flying cars argue that many of the concerns about the safety of the operation of these vehicles can be addressed through the extensive training of aspiring drivers. This onerous requirement, combined with the high price tags of flying cars, will make them an undesirable alternative to the internal combustion beasts that keep the nation moving at present. Even if economies of scale bring the price of flying cars down to a competitive level, say on par with an SUV, the other above-listed constraints will most likely keep flying cars limited to hobbyists and daredevils.