Four Solutions to the Violence Generated by Mexican Cartels

Abstract

As the country’s attention remains focused on the Covid-19 global pandemic which continues to ravage the nation’s health and economy, it is easy to overlook the profound threat represented by Mexican drug cartels. Indeed, some authorities estimate that as many as one hundred thousand people have died in drug cartel conflicts since 2006, and this figure does not take into account the tens of thousands of American lives that are lost in the federal government’s ill-fated war on drugs. Against this backdrop, it is reasonable to question why tens of billions of scarce taxpayer dollars continue to be spent on a “war” that is claiming thousands of American lives each year without any substantive return on these investments. The purpose of this paper is to provide a systematic review of the relevant literature concerning Mexican drug cartels to identify the extent of the problem, its primary antecedent causes, and what steps have been taken in recent years to combat these violent international drug organizations. Finally, in recognition that these past efforts have largely been ineffective in stopping Mexican drug cartels, an analysis of potential solutions is followed by a summary of the research and key findings concerning these issues in the paper’s conclusion.

Mexican Drug Cartels: Present Danger, Future Threat

Today, Mexico shares one of the world’s longest borders with the United States and is one of its largest trading partners (Mexico economy, 2020). Despite some political wranglings over immigration policies, the United States and Mexico have enjoyed an excellent relationship over the years and current indications suggest that this solid relationship will remain in place well into the foreseeable future. Notwithstanding these trends, however, there are still some major challenges facing both countries in terms of violent gangs of narco-traffickers known as Mexican drug cartels that continue to generate billions of dollars in criminal proceeds while simultaneously exacting an enormous toll in human lives. To determine the facts and what can be done, the purpose of this paper is to provide a systematic review of the relevant literature concerning Mexican drug cartels to identify the extent of the problem, its primary antecedent causes, and what steps have been taken in recent years to combat these violent international drug organizations. Finally, in recognition that these past efforts have largely been ineffective in stopping Mexican drug cartels, an analysis of potential solutions is followed by a summary of the research and key findings concerning these issues in the paper’s conclusion.

Review and Analysis

Background and overview

In many ways, criminal elements in Mexico are well situated to take advantage of the market represented by the 300 million citizens of the United States. For instance, according to the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA), “No other country in the world has a greater impact on the drug situation in the United States than does Mexico: the result of a shared border, Mexico’s strategic location between drug producing and consuming countries, and a long history of criminal enterprises that specialize in cross-border smuggling” (Hoover, 2019, p. 2).

Although precise figures are unavailable, some authorities have estimated that Mexican drug cartels have already claimed the lives of more than 60,000 people in Mexico, one of America’s most important trading and strategic partners. To place this alarming figure into context, this estimate indicates that about one person dies every hour due to Mexican drug cartel-related violence (Rizer, 2015). Even more troubling still, other observers suggest that these estimates are far too low and fail to take into account the deaths that go unreported each year, meaning that the actual figures may be twice as high or even greater (Rizer, 2015). Moreover, even the most disturbing estimates do not take into account the tens of thousands of American lives that are lost to the illicit drug use that is fueled by Mexican drug cartels each year (Rizer, 2015).

Some indication of the severity of the illicit drug problems that are caused by Mexican drug cartels can be discerned from a recent study by Mega (2019) that found, “Across Mexico, drug-related violence has been on the rise for more than 12 years. The country documented 33,341 homicides last year -- a record – [and] much of the surge was driven by a rise in increasingly violent drug gangs” (p. 37). Beyond the foregoing human costs, Mexican drug cartels are also responsible for an increase in the incidence of human trafficking across the U.S. border and beyond. In fact, there is a growing body of evidence that indicates Mexican drug cartels have forged expansive networks throughout South and Central America that channels thousands of unaccompanied minors across the U.S. border each year, destined primarily for southwestern states (Rizer, 2015). The networks that are currently maintained by the three main cartels in Mexico are depicted in Figure 1 below.

Figure 1. Networks of cartel influence in Mexico

Source: Mexico rejects US intervention (2019) at https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-50577522

Taken together, it is clear that Mexican drug cartels represent a significant threat to the well-being of American citizens, but the huge amounts of money that are being generated by these criminal organizations each year make meaningful law enforcement by Mexican authorities and the international community especially difficult since bribery and corruption are thought to be rampant in regions of the country where these gangs operate. Indeed, during a hearing in June 2020, Senator David Perdue advised the Senate International narcotics control caucus that Mexican drug cartels were generating more than a half trillion dollars each year, a sum that makes these organizations more lucrative than Walmart, but without the concomitant tax burden (Rizzo, 2019).

The types of illicit drugs that are being manufactured and distributed by Mexican drug cartels are also far more dangerous than the marijuana that was their main focus in years past. Today, Mexican drug cartels deal primarily in truly life-threatening illicit drugs such as methamphetamines and cocaine, but there are also indications that these organizations are responsible for fueling the rapid increase in opioid addictions and overdose deaths from the powerful drug fentanyl and similar opioid compounds (Dhillon, 2020).

The DEA does not discount the adverse effects of cannabis smuggling, but the agency does acknowledge that times are changing with growing numbers of states legalizing marijuana in some capacity which may account for the change in focus to more powerful and potentially deadly drugs that are easier and faster to produce and smuggle across the U.S. border. As the DEA head points out, “Mexico is an opium poppy-cultivating/heroin-producing country and nearly all of the heroin produced in Mexico is destined for the U.S.” (p. 2).

In sum, Mexican drug cartels have historically been a force to be reckoned with, and recent trends suggest that these problems are going to continue to intensify well into the foreseeable future as the people of the United States are forced to deal with the psychological toll that has been caused by months of combined existential crises and illicit drug use increases as a result. Unfortunately, despite the rising death toll exacted by Mexican cartels in recent years, there have been some significant constraints to implementing interventions that partner the United States with the Mexican government to combat the threat posed by Mexican cartels as discussed below.

Mexican Cartel Interventions by the United States and Mexico

To its credit, the Mexican government has long recognized the threat represented by the cartels operating within its borders and has implemented a number of counter-measures in response. In this regard, a study by Chi and Hayatdavoudi (2014) with the U.S. Department of Justice notes that “Mexico’s previous policies for addressing the violence focused on military

assaults on all violent drug trafficking organizations, reduction of illegal drug flows, and decapitation of top trafficking kingpins” (p. 4). It is noteworthy that in this context, the latter reference is intended both figuratively and literally. Under previous administrations, the U.S. and Mexican national governments cooperated closely in implementing timely interventions targeted at Mexican cartels with mixed results, but the impetus was still on international cooperation to effect meaningful changes but the Mexican government was also committed to the deployment of its own security forces as well.

The ambitious 5-year plan launched in 2014 by then Mexican president Calderon was intended to “weaken the financial and operational capacities of criminal gangs through seizures of drugs, money, and weapons” (as cited in Chi & Hayatdavoudi, 2014, p. 4). Moreover, President Calderón was clearly serious about the Mexican government’s efforts to combat the cartels, investing around $2.5 billion on new security forces in 2007, $4 billion in 2008, and $9.2 billion in 2010. In fact, by year-end 2011, the Mexican government had dispatched almost 50,000 security forces with the mission to stop the illicit trade by the cartels, a figure that represents a 10-fold increase over the number that was deployed in 2008 (Chi & Hayatdavoudi, 2014).

More recently, though, the international effort to combat the illicit trade in drugs, weapons and humans by Mexican cartels has been stymied over the past several years due in large part to tensions between the leaders of Mexico and the United States who remained at odds concerning the best approach going forward. In fact, the United States has essentially placed this issue on the backburner during the recent turbulent presidential election and transition, but there were signs before then that things were not entirely copacetic between the two nations with respect to interdiction efforts directed at cartels. For instance, in late 2019, Mexican president López Obrador has rejected an offer from the U.S. government to increase the military response to Mexican cartels, stating that a negotiated settlement would be in everyone’s better interests. In this regard, a report from the BBC notes that the Mexican president has “opted for a non-confrontational approach to the cartels, instead making tackling inequality central to his efforts under a policy dubbed ‘abrazos, no balazos’ - hugs not bullets” (as cited in Mexico rejects US intervention, 2019, para. 3).

The Mexican government has also strongly rejected the proposal by the United States to designated Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations, fearing that the step would simply exacerbate the problem and create a situation where Americans would be perceived by Mexican citizens as an invading military force. For example, according to Ward (2019), “It’s a terrible idea in part because it will reduce Mexican cooperation as many in Mexico fear it’s a first step toward some kind of military intervention, which Trump keeps mentioning when he talks to Mexican presidents” (para. 3). Immediately following this failed attempt to forge a military-based intervention with the government of Mexico, however, the United States started experiencing its first cases of Covid-19 infections and the issue of Mexican cartels has received far less attention despite the continuing severity of the threat.

Complex problems clearly demand complex solutions and eradicating the evil presence of Mexican cartels from the Northern Hemisphere is certainly no exceptions. Despite the billions of dollars that have been invested in combating the problem over the years, Mexican cartels remain firmly entrenched in their respective areas of operation and continue to defy interventions by the Mexican government. A study by the U.S. Institute of Politics (2012) identified a number of potentially more effective, broad-based strategies for dealing with the Mexican cartel problem, including the following:

· Specialize portions of its military forces to deal with specific facets of the war on drugs by significantly reforming military training procedures, departmentalizing the military and integrating these departments into a larger bureaucratic system, and,

· Launch a more aggressive public relations campaign specifically targeting the major leaders of the cartels in order to reduce the culture of fear and helplessness created by the cartels (Liu & Taylor, 2012, p. 6).

In addition, in order to root out and eliminate governmental corruption that allows cartels to operate with virtual impunity, the Mexican government should also:

· Revise its federal reelection process to create greater accountability mechanisms for politicians in office;

· Strengthen its community-level efforts by building strong communities in which people have a wide set of options for legitimate careers by greater subsidizing education and focusing on community initiatives;

· Implement a more transparent fund flow between federal and state governments;

· Allow for greater public participation in the selection of judges, and,

· Reform the wage system, and improve training, resource allocation and accountability mechanisms for law enforcement officers (Liu & Taylor, 2012, p. 6).

Future potential interventions against Mexican drug cartels

As noted in Figure 1 above, there are currently three main Mexican drug cartels that are active in their distribution efforts in the United States, the Sinaloa cartel, the Tierra Caliente cartel and the Tamaulipas cartel. Each of these criminal enterprises maintains control over specific regions of Mexico, and each has its own respective strengths – and weaknesses -- depending on the regional differences in illicit resource availability and types of distribution networks that are in place. Notwithstanding these differences, though, it is clear that some type of unified response is needed to counter the growing influence and violence that are associated with Mexican cartels. From a strictly pragmatic perspective, there are several potential strategies that are available to the Mexican government, especially if applied in partnership with the U.S. government and relevant international law enforcement agencies where appropriate, as examined further below.

1. Do nothing and allow the cartels to continue to operate without any government interference whatsoever. In many ways, this is a highly attractive alternative since it would largely localize most of the violence that is associated with cartel activities to intra-cartel conflicts, thereby avoiding the involvement of innocent civilians. Indeed, despite the expenditures of billions of dollars on the war on drugs in North America over the past 40 years, nothing of substance has actually changed and the problem has intensified in the meantime. In addition, this alternative would free of scarce resources that could be channeled into drug rehabilitation initiatives and public awareness campaigns that could help reduce demand for illicit drugs in ways that simply outlawing them have failed to accomplish.

2. Mount a major offensive against each of the three main cartels that are currently operating in Mexico. This option would require an army-sized military force that could completely dislodge these criminals from their current well-entrenched areas of operation while simultaneously sending a clear message to other would-be cartels that business as usual is over. The downside of this alternative, though, is readily apparent. The Mexican cartels are armed to the teeth, frequently with far superior weaponry than is available to the Mexican government’s armed forces and it is reasonable to posit that the bloodshed would be massive. Furthermore, even assuming that all traces of existing cartel operations could be destroyed, it would only be a matter of time (and not very much time at that) before these criminal enterprises were back in full operation.