Norman Birnbaum in His \"The

Norman Birnbaum in his "The Presidential Elections of 2008" offers a very comprehensive of an important moment in the history of American politics. This moment takes place just after the official announcement that Barack Obama will the Presidential candidate of the Democratic Power and aims at identifying, on the basis of Obama and McCain's electoral campaigns, the way ahead for the American government and the consequently, world politics.

Birnbaum uses several means to identify the "way ahead" in this paper and starts with a clear analysis of the two candidates' position on sensible issues, always having in mind the usage of the historical method. By selectively pointing at the way Mr. Obama reached the key position of main candidate, the author builds an argument that he is not only strong by what he promises, but he also comes with an important baggage of real electoral dispute, something that Mr. McCain has in a lesser degree.

In order to create a credible analysis on the evolution of American politics, Birnbaum uses a comparative method and tests his arguments during the entire length of the paper, in a very balanced and neutral manner, even if it is obvious that his predictions go along the lines of a win from Mr. Obama. This method of creating the level at which the competitor plays is very useful in identifying the weak and strong points. Birnbaum gives credit to Ms. Clinton as he presents her massive wins over the months of electoral campaign where she "won a majority of the last fifteen primaries, winning South Dakota on the very last day of the campaign. These victories (…) allowed her to argue that in terms of the Electoral College with its winner take all provision, she was the more electable candidate." He observes that, even with the high advantage of male and female white working class; a large part of the Jewish and Latino communities and the significant victories carried out, Mr. Clinton was unable to defeat the meticulous and solid construction of Mr. Obama's campaign, as well as his personal drive and motivation. In support of his arguments regarding the electoral fight within the Democratic Party, as well as when constructing the Obama-McCain analysis, Birnbaum uses a great deal of data to support his analysis. This is one of the most important tools in political science research, especially when one is discussing elections, election behavior and trends in a democratic system that is based on numbers and is very susceptible to any media information fluctuation.

In responding to one of the main questions of this analysis, that of what directions will American go after the 2008 elections, Birnbaum uses the comparative method between Mr. Obama and Ms. Clinton in order to identify what are the core issues that Mr. Obama, in case of victory, would have to focus on. In an internal battle, the promises and stances he took in relation to Ms. Clinton's should have shaped much of the governmental decisions following victory. As the article is written before the result of elections, much of what has happened since then has obviously had some effects from the electoral debates that Birnbaum presents in his article.

The author continues his analysis on how American politics will look like when he addresses the different points-of-view and chances of becoming the next American President for Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain.

An illustrative example of the many he offers, is the tax issue: once opposed to the tax cuts that President Bush made, Mr. McCain argues for the importance of lowering taxes whilst Mr. Obama argues for a system in which prosperous citizens pay more and higher taxes. Yet the most striking difference between the two that Birnbaum makes relates to foreign policy. The author basically argues in favor of Mr. Obama as he sees the McCain foreign policy not only imperial but also reckless and dangerous for the role that the United States will play in world politics. He sees McCain's vision as being worse that the Bush administration offering somehow exaggerated examples from the Republican candidate like "the Iraq War is to be pursued until 'victory' (undefined), Iran is to yield to our demands or be attacked, Russia is to be expelled from the Group of Eight, a worldwide 'League of Democracies' is to be formed to bring our model of society to those backward enough not to have it, or worse, not to want it." In contrast, he presents Mr. Obama in a much more bright light offering him even advice on the matter: "the difficulty for Obama is that the old course of global hegemony is unsustainable. He clearly knows this, but to say so too openly brings certain political retribution." Birnbaum is nonetheless very careful in not pinpointing the winner of the race as this is not the question of the paper - the level of change that the electoral process gives to the new policies is.