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2009). At the same time, a careful scientific study that attempted to account for the natural temperature cycle of the Earth, which is mainly driven by oceanic currents, found that even with natural variability accounted for the trend in the twentieth century has been an unrelenting warming trend (Swanson et al. 2009).
Discussion
These results lead to varying conclusions regarding the causes of global warming and the effects it will have on both the environment and the global economy. The modeling studies seem to suggest that the economic impact of transitioning to lower carbon emission in developing countries, though still considerable, is definitely manageable and even advantageous in the long run from cost savings to rural and developing communities (Urban 2009). In addition, the economic ties between carbon emissions and the use of fossil fuels and economic growth that are stressed by many political economists appear to be less direct and influential than has been asserted (Ojekunle et al. 2009). This helps to clear the way for changes to human energy sources, should they be deemed necessary.
The necessity of such changes is still a matter of debate, however. The fact that dramatically warmer temperatures existed much farther from the Equator than previously thought means that the situation is less dire than other studies and scientists have suggested (Newbrey et al. 2009). These temperatures, however, were not caused by the activities and waste outputs of a single species, nor is there evidence that the...
2009; Swanson et al. 2009). The finding that oceanic variances cannot account for the past century's warming trend is not entirely conclusive in attributing climate change human carbon emissions, but it is one more piece of evidence that leads to this conclusion (Swanson et al. 2009).
Conclusion
Nothing is ever definite in science, and the global warming trend is no exception. While the evidence found in this study shows an unmistakable warming trend that cannot be accounted for by natural variances as currently measured, it cannot conclusively state that human carbon emissions are the cause of the warming. Likewise, though computer models suggest that the economic impact of switching to low-carbon emission technologies will not be as severe as has been suggested, this cannot be known with any certainty, either. Given the strong possibility that global warming is human caused, however, change is still advisable.
References
Ojekunle, Z.; Lin, Z.; Xin, T.; Harrer, G.; Martins, A. & Bangura, H. (2009). "Global Climate Change: The Empirical Study of Sensitivity Model in China's Sustainable Development." Energy sources 31(19), pp. 1777-89.
Newbrey, M.; Murray, A.; Wilson, M; Brinkman, D. & Neuman, A. (2009). "Seventy-five-million-year-old tropical tetra-like fish from Canada tracks Cretaceous global warming." Proceedings - Royal Society. Biological sciences 276(1674), pp. 3829-3833.
Swanson, K.; Sugihara, G. & Tsonis, A. (2009). "Long-term natural variability and 20th century climate change." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 106(38), pp. 16120-16123.
Urban, F. (2009). "Climate-Change Mitigation Revisited: Low-Carbon Energy Transitions for China and India." Development policy review 27(6), pp. 693-715.
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