Russia, Ukraine and the End of the Western Rules-Based World Order

Abstract:

The war in Ukraine is a war for controlnot just of eastern Ukraine or Crimea but of the global order. For decades, the global order has been arranged by the USthe dominant power to emerge at the end of World War II. The US dollar has been the reserve currency of the world, and through that reserve currency status the US has unofficially held the reins of power and international authority. Russia and China, however, want to change all thatand the war in Ukraine is the first stage of a brewing conflict between the West and the East / Global South. It is very likely to lead to World War III if some truce or conclusion is not arrived at soon. With the way things have been escalating, peace seems to be the last thing the world will get in 2023.

Introduction:

The start of hostilities in Ukraine began in 2022, but conflict has been ongoing for yearsnot just between the Ukrainian government and secessionists in the east but also between the Western world and Russia. On the one hand, the Russia / Ukraine war is about antagonism between the new Ukrainian governments anti-Russian stance and the pro-Russian position of Ukrainians in the east. On the other hand, the Russia / Ukraine war is about antagonism between the eagle (the US and its allies and vassals) and the Bear and its friends (Russia and China et al.). In short, there is more to the war than meets the eye.

Thesis Statement:

The official narrative in the West is that Russia invaded Ukraine in an unprovoked attackbut this is not really true or consistent with a long- or even short-term view of history.

Body of Paper:

The Russia / Ukraine War goes all the way back to Putins rise to power at the end of the 20th century: Putinfirst appointed by an ailing Yeltsinand then elected by the people to lead Russia out of the hands of the oligarchs that had robbed the country at point blank, chased out of the nation the oligarchic crown jewel of the Kremlin: Boris Berezovsky (Klebnikov). Berezovsky fled to the UK, where he quickly hatched plans for revengevia Ukraine (Mezrich).

Ukraine was newly independent and more or less pro-Russia at the time. However, it was Berezovksys intention to put into power his own people and exact his revenge. Others supported that intention. As a result of the Berezovsky-supported Orange Revolution of 2004-5, democratically-elected president and pro-Putin Yanukovychwas denied the election and his opponent took office (Russian Godfathers). In 2010, Yanukovych was again elected back into office. This time, the opposition acted with more violence (a coup) and literally ran him out of the country four years later. A new leader (an actor) named Zelensky was installed.

Under Zelensky, Ukraine...…facing off against the collective Westand it has all come to a head in Ukraine. Truth be told, it was a long time coming. Yes, Berezovsky got the ball rolling, but he couldnt have done it without help. He not only relied on other oligarchs around the world (from the Bushes in the US to Ukraines own media mogul), but he also relied on the Cold War enthusiasm that had never really waned, even after the Berlin Wall came down and Communism fell in the former Soviet Union. There persisted a pernicious Us vs. Them mentality in the West. Russia, for a time, tried to play nicebut Putin saw the writing on the wall from the beginning and urged Russians to get out of the West. He did so for years, prior to the onset of war. The fact of the matter is that the West and Russia have been at odds since before World War II. They made strange bedfellows as Allies in the war against the Axisbut perhaps not that strange (after all, some would say that Communism and Capitalism are really just the two sides of the same materialistic coin). But going as far back as the American Civil War, when the Russian Tsar Alexander II supported Lincoln and his greenback (against the bankers), Western power brokers have seen Russia as a meddlesome threat. Those power brokers are now keener than ever…