Intelligence Analysis of Different Issues

5

Intelligence Analysis

Primary Intelligence Problem

1. A recent wave of terrorism in Egypt is threatening the stability of the central government. What does this mean?

Sub-problems, associated PIRs/EEIs, and Methods of Intelligence Analysis

What form of terrorism? What’s its origin and intention? (PIR-1)

Method: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) would be the most appropriate method for examining this sub-problem. ACH is an intelligence analysis method that has proven highly effective when examining huge amount of data (Heuer, 1999). This technique is commonly used to identify alternative explanations (hypotheses) and examine evidence to confirm or refute the hypotheses (U.S. Government, 2009). For this sub-problem, ACH would enable intelligence analysts to assess and develop probable identification of the new terrorist threat. It would help provide more guidance on how the terrorist regime conducts its operations, its ideologies, and intent.

What are the lifestyles of individuals in this new wave of terrorism?

Method: Predictive analysis in which the analyst determines behavioral trends of individuals in the new terrorist regime through evaluating data obtained using research and intelligence. The identification of behavioral patterns helps the analyst to determine what these individuals are doing on a daily basis and how they are likely to threaten or attack the central government.

What are the probable weaknesses of leaders in this new wave of terrorism?

Method: Opportunity analysis would be utilized to examine the weaknesses associated with leaders of the new terrorist group. This analysis would help to determine vulnerabilities of these leaders by examining their personalities and lifestyles. From the assessment, the intelligence analyst will determine ways for exploiting these weaknesses as a means for combatting their terrorist activities.

What are the capabilities of this group in conducting terror activities in the area and their probable impact? (PIR-2)

Method: High-impact/Low Probability Analysis. This technique would be utilized by the intelligence analyst to examine the past and current operational effectiveness of the terrorist group. The analysis technique is also suitable because it will help determine the how and if the terrorist regime can affect Egypt’s central government.

What are the tactics, techniques, and procedures employed by this new wave of terrorism?

Method: Predictive analysis. The assessment of tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) employed by the new wave of terrorism helps to determine how organized the group is. This will provide information regarding the structure and rules employed by the terrorist group for their activities. The analysis should also be carried out to keep track of any modifications of tactics, techniques, and procedures. From the assessment, the analyst helps to develop suitable counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency measures for thwarting the operations and activities of the terrorist group.

What are the locals’ views of this new terrorism regime and their activities? (PIR-3)

Methods: Key Assumptions Check and Content Analysis. The views of the local populace regarding the new terrorism regime and its activities/operations requires assessment of key assumptions. Key Assumptions Check is an intelligence analysis technique that helps to articulate and review key assumptions by the intelligence team/individual as well as the local populace. For this case, the intelligence analysis team should collect information from the local media or consult with locals. Content Analysis is a method that helps to evaluate the true meaning and feelings of the locals toward the terrorist regime. This in turn helps to evaluate and determine the locals’ reactions to the terrorism regime and identification of probable friendly forces in the local population.

What are the recruitment efforts used by the terrorist regime? Do these efforts involve recruiting locals? How successful are they?

Method: Content Analysis. This technique is employed to determine the recruitment initiatives used by the organization and whether the recruitment efforts entail enlisting locals. This would help provide insider knowledge regarding the tactics, techniques, and procedures of the new terrorism regime. The information obtained from this process would be utilized to develop a more effective counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism plan for defeating the new regime.

What is the perception of Egyptian government leaders on this terrorism threat? (PIR-4)

Method: Red Team Analysis. This intelligence analysis technique will help in gathering information and trends regarding the behavioral model employed by leaders of the Egyptian government toward this terrorism threat. The determination of the behavioral model provides crucial information regarding how the Egyptian government would react to this threat.

Does the Egyptian government have a plan to combat the threat?

Method: Alternative Futures Analysis. This technique enables the intelligence analyst to determine the probable measures and alternatives the Egyptian government can use to combat the threat.

Primary Intelligence Problem

2. Oil prices have spiked and Chinese companies have obtained operations and engineering contracts in multiple Persian Gulf states. What is the likelihood of Chinese intervention in the Persian Gulf to ensure the supply of oil to China?

Sub-problems, associated PIRs/EEIs, and Methods of Intelligence Analysis

What kinds of operations and engineering contracts have been established between China and multiple Persian Gulf states? What’s the intention of these contracts? (PIR-1)

Method: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). This method would help to determine the kinds of operations and engineering contracts between China and these states. This determination will in turn provide further guidance on potential hypotheses for the intentions behinds these contracts. An understanding of these intentions will help to determine the possibility of Chinese intervention in the Persian Gulf for constant oil supply to China. From this assessment, the intelligence analyst can begin to determine the nature of relations and agreements between China and Persian Gulf states.

What are the potential loopholes in these operations and engineering contracts?

Method: Predictive analysis. Through the use of this method, the intelligence individual or team will obtain information regarding potential weaknesses in these contracts that would provide the justification for Chinese intervention in Persian Gulf to ensure constant oil supply to the country. Predictive analysis helps the intelligence analyst to identify how China could have taken advantage of rising oil prices to create a framework for intervention in Persian Gulf states.

Are these contracts similar to those between China and other countries? Are they similar to contracts established between Persian Gulf states and other countries worldwide?

Method: Predictive analysis. From evaluating data obtained through research and intelligence, the analyst can identify the similarities and differences between these contracts and other past or current oil supply contracts. Through this method, the analyst will understand the potential motivations behind these contracts. Additionally, the analyst will understand the potential impact (positive and/or negative) of the agreements on Persian Gulf states.

What are the capabilities of China to intervene in the Persian Gulf to ensure oil supply to the country? (PIR-2)

Method: High-impact/Low Probability Analysis. Through this method, the analyst will examine the resources available to China to intervene in Persian Gulf for continual oil supply. From data obtained through research and intelligence, the analyst will determine the military and/or economic resources that China can utilize to its advantage over the Persian Gulf states. In this case, the analyst will establish the link between these resources and contracts.

Do the Persian Gulf states have the capability to prevent any potential exploitation by China through these contracts?

Method: Predictive analysis. This technique will help to establish whether Persian Gulf states have the capabilities to prevent and/or deal with any potential threat that could emerge from the contracts with China. This would help in developing more effective measures towards dealing with any unprecedented issues or events that could emerge from the contracts established with China.

Does China have a history in exploiting contracts to undermine other countries?

Method: Predictive analysis. This method will enable the intelligence analyst to determine whether China has past and/or recent history in exploiting contracts with other countries for her own economic benefits. The process will help to determine the actual motives/intentions behind the contracts and contribute toward the development of effective counter measures to handle potential threats.

What are the locals’ views of the contracts between China and Persian Gulf states for oil supply? (PIR-3)

Method: Content Analysis. From data obtained using research and intelligence, the intelligence personnel or team can examine the views of the local populace regarding these oil supply contracts. These views would be collected from locals in China as well as Persian Gulf states. This will play a crucial role toward understanding the support (or lack of) for these contracts and determining the underlying motives behind them as well as their potential impacts on these countries.

What is the perception of Chinese and Persian Gulf leaders on these contracts? (PIR-4)

Method: Red Team Analysis. This intelligence analysis technique will help understanding the perceptions of leaders in these countries toward these contracts (Marrin, 2007). The perceptions will not only help to understand the intentions in the contracts, but also in formulation of strategies to identify and deal with potential emerging threats or issues.

Do these governments have plans to prevent unprecedented events?

Method: Alternative Futures Analysis. This technique enables the intelligence analyst to determine the probable measures and alternatives established to deal with potential unforeseen issues.

Primary Intelligence Problem

3. The Brazilians have been working with Chinese engineers to design and field a new satellite system, suspected to be of military significance. What is this new satellite system?

Sub-problems, associated PIRs/EEIs, and Methods of Intelligence Analysis

What is this new satellite system? (PIR-1)

Method: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). Using this method, the intelligence analyst or team would develop hypotheses that attempt to explain the new satellite system. The various hypotheses would help to determine whether the satellite system has some military components.

What are the intentions of Brazilians in developing the new satellite system? Are they positive or negative intentions?

Method: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). Apart from determining the nature of the new satellite system, the intelligence analysis method would help to determine the intentions for developing the system. In this case, the intelligence analyst would determine whether the suspected military components in the new satellite system are for positive or negative purposes. The determination of the intentions for creating the new satellite system would help to determine any potential security threats that could emerge from its use.

Are there hidden relations and purposes between Brazil and China in developing a new satellite system, suspected to be of military significance?

Method: Outside in Thinking. This method would help the intelligence analyst to identify any hidden secrets and collaboration between Brazilians and Chinese in creating a new satellite system with military significance. What is the relationship between the Brazilians and Chinese in the creation of this new satellite system? Are these relationships good, bad or indifferent? Through this process, the analyst adopts a broader perspective of examining this issue in order to determine what the new satellite system is.

What are the capabilities of Brazilians to develop a new satellite system with military significance? (PIR-2)

Method: High-impact/Low Probability Analysis. From data obtained through research and intelligence, this method would be utilized to determine Brazilians’ capabilities in creating the new satellite system with military significance. Do Brazilians have the capability to create this new system? Do they have the ability to use it for military purposes? Can Brazilians use the new satellite system to generate security issues in other parts of the world? These questions would help to determine the motivations behind the suspected military satellite system and its use.

To what extent does the new satellite system incorporate military components?

Method: Predictive analysis. The intelligence analyst will examine military components (if any) included in the new satellite system. The evaluation of the components would help determine the capability of the new satellite system in terms of security. An understanding of the military capabilities of the new satellite system would help in development appropriate plans for addressing potential security issues that could emerge from its use.

What are the local perspectives regarding the development of the mew satellite system? (PIR-3)

Method: Content Analysis. Using this technique, the intelligence analyst/team will focus on determine the views and perceptions of locals (i.e. Brazilians) on the development of this new satellite system. This would entail obtaining information from local policymakers, reports from relevant organizations, and local media content on the development of the system. The process would help to identify actual information regarding the content of the new satellite system, the rationale behind its use, and its purposes. The information obtained from this analysis will be utilized to provide explanation on what the new satellite system is.

What is the government’s perspective and plan for the new satellite system? (PIR-4)

Method: Red Team Analysis and Content Analysis. This intelligence analysis method will be used to determine the Brazilian government’s motivation and intention for creating the new satellite system. An understanding of the government’s motivation for creating the system is essential towards determining its military capabilities and use. This information can be obtained through examining policy-related data for the development of the new satellite system. Policy-related information regarding the new satellite system would be acquired through content analysis.

Are there indications of military elements in the new satellite system from government sources?

Method: Quality of Information Check. This method would be utilized to cross-check various sources of information from the Brazilian government relating to the new satellite system. These indications would help determine if the new satellite system is a military system. Through obtaining such information, the intelligence team or analyst will make analytical evaluation of what going on in the creation of this new satellite system. Additionally, the analyst will determine the type of satellite system being created and how it will be utilized.

Primary Intelligence Problem

4. The Israelis destroyed a suspected nuclear weapons facility in Syria. Was it really a nuclear weapons facility? What does this mean for non-proliferation efforts?

Sub-problems, associated PIRs/EEIs, and Methods of Intelligence Analysis

What are indications of chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) elements in the destroyed facility? (PIR-1)

Method: Quality of Information Check. One of the critical steps toward determining whether the destroyed facility was a nuclear facility is examining any indicators of CBRN elements. The intelligence analyst would utilize this method to examine any potential CBRN elements where the facility was located. The process would also entail examining different sources of information for accuracy and validity in determining the type of facility it was prior to destruction by the Israelis. The intelligence analyst would then create an analytical assessment that shows explanations on what was going on at the facility prior to its destruction.

To what extent was the facility destroyed? Are there any remaining components of the facility? (PIR-2)

Method: Indicators of Change. From data obtained through research and intelligence, this method would help the analyst determine the full-extent of the facility’s destruction by the Israelis. Any remaining components of the facility can then be collected and utilize for further intelligence analysis.