Globalization trends and contemporary impacts

Globalization Trends

Globalization means a manner in which there is a connection and spread of products, technologies and communication to all parts of the world. Sometimes, economically it may refer to the global distribution of goods and services especially when there is a reduction of hindrances such as export fee, tariffs and import quotas on the international market. Hence, it helps to bring up a country's economy through the principle of comparative advantage and increase in specialization. In other broader view, globalization may refer transnational circulation of language, ideas and culture Council & Intelligence, 2008()

Global trends over the years

Globalization Trend Analysis 2010-2015

As pertaining to demographic change across the world, the world's population will rise from 6.1 billion people as per the statistics in 2001 to 7.2 billion by 2015 a.S. Mather & C.L. Needle, 2000.

This is because people are likely to live longer and majority of them will be from developing countries. In emerging economies, countries will likely experience decline in birth rate together with a high population of the aging, hence through this there will be low unemployment rate which will translate to those still working being entitled to increased health care and pension. In some developing countries, there will be low birth rate which in the long run will reduce overdependence of the youth to their parents, hence, creating a possibility for both political stability and economic growth Miroslav Volf & William Katerberg, 2004()

By the year 2015, there will be enough food to feed the ever increasing population, but those in the sub-Saharan Africa will still be suffering from starvation due to the poor infrastructure, political instability, chronic poverty and poor food distribution network. Famine is more likely to persist in countries with oppressive government policies. In addition, with the increase in energy demand by around 50%, the energy sources will still be enough to meet the demand, with estimates suggesting that there is still 80% of the world's oil and 95% gas available for use by 2015 (Dore, 2011).

By the year 2015, technology will be the corner stone of commerce. There will be massive evolution in technology especially in the field of biotechnology, nanotechnology and material science. Biotechnology to e specific will make greater milestones in the medical field, which will enable, those who can afford the services to be able to improve their lives and increase their lifespan.

On top of all the benefits of technology, there are also disadvantage of this advanced technology where the terrorists, narco-traffickers, proliferators and organized criminal gangs will have an advantage of the high speed information systems which will enable them to interlink their criminal activities and channel their threat to stability and insecurity around the world (Dore, 2011).

Global economy, on the other hand, will be fueled by unrestricted flow of information, capital, ideas, services and goods, cultural values and people. The global economy will help to reduce political instability all over the world by 2015. Governments all over the world will have to invest more in technology, public education and wider participation, in government, to include influential non-state actors (Global Trends 2015, 2002).

Globalization Trend Analysis 2020-2025

By 2025, globalization will be largely irreversible by now and it will become less westernized, and more inclined to the developing nations since they will create significant market for companies. The world's economy will be larger by 2025, but issues will be on the disparities between companies that have financial capabilities and those that do not have. The increased number of global firms will help in the spread of new technologies, in countries which the technologies do not exist. At this period, there will be the emergence of new economies especially china, Russia, India and Brazil. Most of the projections indicate that by 2020 china's growth national product (GNP) will surpass that of individual western economic powers except that for U.S., while at this time too, India's economy will have overtaken or will be in the process of overtaking the European economies (Nye, 2000). Due to India and china's large population which will be estimated to be at 1.3 billion and 1.5 billion respectively, the standard of living of people residing in those countries does not need to match that of the western countries so as to become the economic powers. Russia, on the other hand, is said to have a likelihood of becoming one of the economic powers by at this period through to its oil and gas reserve but, there are projections that it will still be faced by severe demographic crisis from low birth rate, AIDS situation and poor medical care Miroslav Volf & William Katerberg, 2004()

There will still be sufficient reserves of energy to meet the demand for the growing population, but its supply will be faced by several hitches such as political instability in countries where it is produced. There will be growth of non-state actors and the countries/states will be willing to accommodate these actors. U.S. will remain a single most powerful actor economically, militarily and technologically, but other powers will try to challenge it now and then. Lastly, during this period, political Islam will still remain a potent force, and this force may be a source of potential conflict and unity hindrance when there is growth of jihadist ideology Kegley & Raymond, 2011()

China and India are forecasted to be the leading technology producers, and this will enable the poorest countries to acquire technology cheaply. The expected revolution involving the convergence of bio-, Nano-, information and material technology will give the two countries an upper hand in the economy. At this time, more companies will become global in nature, and those already global will advance to become more diversified and origin oriented i.e. A lot will be from Asia and less from the western side Council & Intelligence, 2008()

Globalization Trend Analysis 2025-2030.

By this period, the transport network will be efficient, and through the rapid growth in technology, more efficient and reliable transport network will be available i.e. Modern speed trains will be available globally. With the larger European Union, there will be vast migration of people to countries experiencing a high economic growth such as Russia (Nye, 2000).

The world's population will have expanded to eight billion people, and with some Asian countries having extremely large population; they will have greater economies and be of political importance. The world' energy consumption will have risen by more than a half and the fossil energy source will account for more than four-fifth of the world consumption by 2030. During this period, the economy is likely to expand at an annual rate of 1.4% and therefore, more jobs opportunities will be available in the service industry. Technological improvement during this time will aid in the provision of clean and efficient energy (Global Trends 2015, 2002).

Economic trends

A global research done on a few developing country such as Brazil, China, India and Russia, while focusing on a key features such as globalization and development in relation to attracting of investors with long-term perspective. It was found that, in the next few years, these countries could become much larger economically than they are now and more than any investors expectation. This growth rates were not only decided upon based on extrapolating the current growth rate being experienced in those countries, but also through setting out clear assumptions about how development and growth will be realized and therefore, applying that formal framework to generate long-term forecasts a.S. Mather & C.L. Needle, 2000.

These projections were done alongside long-term projections for the G6 (U.S., Japan, UK, Germany, France and Italy). With the latest demographic projection and a model of productivity growth and capital accumulation, the analysts were able to map out the income per capita, the GDP growth and the current movements within those countries' economies until 2050 (Dore, 2011).

The research found that if the projections came out as stated, Brazil, China, India and Russia could become an indispensable source of new global spending. For instance, trends show that India's economy could be larger than that for japan by the year 2032 and that of china, to be larger than the one for U.S. By 2041. By the year 2016, China's economy will be the biggest of all the countries. In relation to the G6 member states, Brazil, China, India and Russia's economies summed up together could become larger than that of G6 countries (Global Trends 2015, 2002).

In summary, here are the projected trends in Economic size, Economic growth, incomes and demographics and lastly, in the global demand patterns for the sample countries which are Brazil, China, India and Russia.

Economic Growth

Economic analyst have projections that India will be in a capacity to realizing a faster growth rate over the next 30 and 50 years. The growth is calculated to be higher than 5% over the next 30 years and nearly close to 5% as late as 2050 if development proceeds successfully Kegley & Raymond, 2011.

The growth for these countries is shown to slow drastically during this time frame. By 2050, it is projected that only India would be recording growth rates significantly above 3%.

Incomes and Demographics

By 2050, despite much faster growth, individuals in those countries are still predicted to be poorer than those persons living in any of the now G6 economies . Russia is the exception, essentially catching up with the poorer of the G6 in terms of income per capita by 2050. By 2030, China's income per capita could measure up what Korea's is today. In the U.S., income per capita by 2050 could reach roughly $80,000.

Demographics play an crucial role in the way the world will change. Decline in working-age population is projected to take place later in Russia and China than India and Brazil than in the developed economies Kegley & Raymond, 2011()

Thesis statement

Globalization will substantially increase in two folds due to improvement in technology and transportation network for product flow among countries, language acquisition and job placement among other factors. Trends show that with an improvement of transport network and technology will most likely reduce the cost of transportation while improvement of information technology has and will lead to an improvement in the volume of information available at almost no cost. Also in addition, low communication and transportation cost has significant consequences on the nature of production activity, the flow of knowledge necessary for its production and more so, the market for the products that are made. Reduction of communication and transportation cost for instance may result to a raise in the magnitude of competition and foster identification of most economies site for both manufacturing of products and their marketing Intelligence & Cia, 2005()

Technology is likely to foster globalization since the introduction of flexible production forms. Companies have stopped using the vertical integrated form of production, and they have started embracing the specialized production form which can easily be introduced across national boundaries. Therefore, companies are no longer tied to one specific location and this consequently leading to the business establishment in targeted countries becoming more intense than before Miroslav Volf & William Katerberg, 2004()

The new technology in use will enable multinational companies to have a chain of production sites in various countries, which will create, job opportunities in those countries that they are established in. But the job placement in those countries will depend on the local people's ability to gain the required knowledge and perform. Those with low capabilities of grasping will likely to be given the simplest know how which they can master while those with high capability will be given a more advanced forms of know-how.

Literature review

A trend can be defined as a general course, direction or prevailing tendency which people follow to achieve a certain outcome or result. Trend analysis is where current development are observed to give assumptions of the future events. Trend analysis is normally carried out to determine any unusual changes expected in the near future. It is also used to find out if there is an actual trend or pattern in an occurrence so as to find the solution to it or promote it is it has positive impacts the Futurist, 2005.

Hence, through the use of trend analysis technology timeline, we are able to know some of the impacts of the globalization and their mitigation measures. For instance, in the transport sector, the radical changes which are to be seen will be pegged on two key factors; these include; the need for environmental change and sustainability of the transport industry.

Environmental change requires the use of fuels, which reduce, substantially the emission which causes global warming, and in order to have a significant environmental change, all vehicles manufactured in the future should be using clean energy which reduces the amount of carbon emission into the atmosphere James Hansen & Martin Medina-Elizade, 2006.

Therefore, there are forecast that, within the time zone of 2010-2015, there will be creation hybrid fuels to reduce on the emissions. Technology then will have advanced to the extent of developing of vehicles with the capability of utilizing more than two power sources, an example being, vehicles that use electricity to combine an internal combustion engine and electric motors installed in it.

Also within the same time zone, there will be fractional ownership and biofuel backlash will be introduced. In fractional ownership, asserts will be owned by several individuals, since most properties will be attracting huge capital to acquire. Also, there will be a reduction of production of biofuels, this is because biofuels needs a lot of raw material to manufacture, and when it comes to using food crop to produce it, the a lot of it, enough to feed a large population, will be used to produce the biofuel such as ethanol. At the end, of this period fuel cell vehicles will have been introduced so as to reduce dependency on fossil fuels, scientist by then will have come up with a vehicles technology that enable the car utilize oxygen and hydrogen in the creation of electricity which will power an electric motor James Hansen & Martin Medina-Elizade, 2006.

This technology will reduce substantially over dependency in fossil fuels hence; promoting environmental change. In the 2015-2020, all vehicles will have been fitted with rear view mirror; this will help to reduce accidents hence, ensuring safety of the all road users including cyclist and pedestrians. Later on within the time zones, all vehicles will be required to have a real-time car insurance. This will help to promote sustainability in the transport industry since vehicles will be eligible for compensation of any kind and this will reduce losses vehicle owners and passengers go through in case of an incidence or accident.

At this time zone, the number of vehicles on the roads will be many and there will be efforts to reduce their use at a specific time, an example of such efforts include charging vehicle owner who may want to enter with them into the town, therefore people will be forced to use the public transport system or even carpooling. Within the years, 2020-2025, predictions show that technology will have advanced to the extent of having driverless Lorries. These Lorries, mostly those, which carry manufactured, goods will be self-driven by the use of the intelligence system fitted in them together with the help of a remote driver. At this period, there will also be remarkable improvement in building materials to the extent, bridges will now be made from plastic. This plastic in use will be a mixture of other chemicals which will make it cheap to build and strong to handle the weight of the vehicles passing through it. The plastic will help to save on the non-renewable materials which are normally used hence such as iron hence saving them for future generation Intelligence & Cia, 2005()