Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture

Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture

Weather and the related temperature, light and water determine to a large extent the human society's ability to feed themselves and the animals they care for. When the weather changes due to variations n climate or long-terms changes in climate there are very serious impacts on agricultural production and reduction of crop production and these force the farmers to take up new methods of agriculture so that they can cope up with the new situation. Food security of the world is thus directly affected by the existing climate. (Agriculture and climate change: FAO's role) The changes in climate directly affects climate due to both its effect on the agricultural processes and the impact of the changes of climate on agricultural production. One does not really know totally how all this takes place and how the agricultural processes can be altered so that the impact can be minimized on agricultural production. Human civilization has been depending on agriculture right from the inception and has always been one of the fundamental methods by which humans have been surviving in the world. (Agriculture and Global Environmental Change)

The methods and the production from agriculture is still the main contributor to economy in the developing countries. In certain cases, even the agricultural processes may be contributing to the changes in climate through arable farming, burning and clearing of forests, cultivation of rice in wetlands, raising livestock, use of nitrogenous fertilizers and the resultant increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the development of methane and nitrous oxide in the air, and so on. At the same time, when the changes in global climate take place, it reduces the availability of land for cultivation, decreases the yield of crops and thus threatens food security. This affects the developing countries a lot. (Agriculture and Global Environmental Change)

Most of these threats are being ignored: climate change, erosion of soil, depletion of water aquifers and expansion of deserts. These changes are all threatening the livelihood and food availability of hundreds of millions of people all over the world. Many of the present national governments do not even recognize these problems. (Time for plan B) It is thus important to note down and inform people of the world about the changes being caused to agriculture due to climate changes, and the changes in climate due to agricultural processes. It is important to apply the correct technology and government policies to reduce these changes in climate. The importance is for the nations, regions and local areas. Normally the people in the local area are aware of the environment in which they live, and these technologies and policies can come out of the human ability to adapt. (Agriculture and Global Environmental Change)

Growth in population and increase of income has tripled the demand for grains in the world during the last fifty years and the growth has been from 640 million tons in 1950 to 1855 million tons in 2000. The point now has to be recognized as to whether the farming community can increase production by 100 million tons a year, so that the 70 million people being added to the world a year can be fed, and along with that build up the stocks in the world to a secure level. The main challenges to the farmers are the rising temperatures and falling ground water levels. The temperatures in the world have risen sharply since agriculture was started by man 11,000 years ago. Along with this, the farmers are now the water in the aquifer they use disappear and a resultant loss of irrigation water. During the last thirty years, the temperatures have been rising steadily. (Time for plan B)

The process of recording temperatures began from 1880, and the 16 hottest years have been after 1980. The hottest three years have come in the last five years and the crops are facing a lot of high temperatures that they have not faced before. This reduces crop yields through the impact on photosynthesis, moisture balance and fertilization. It has been seen that the process of photosynthesis slows down when the temperatures cross 94 degrees Fahrenheit, and many crops are not able to photosynthesize above temperatures over 100 degrees. So far as the United States is concerned, the corn plants get into thermal shock and dehydrate when the temperatures in the corn belt go over 100 degrees. At those temperatures, every additional day reduces the harvest. The high temperatures also reduce the fertilization needed for the development of seeds. (Time for plan B)

The thumb rule accepted by the research scientists at the United States Department of Agriculture and the International Rice Research Institute in the Philippines is that an increase in temperature by one degree Celsius, over the optimum and during the growing season, will reduce the yield of grain by 10%. The other challenge to the farmers is the rapidly falling water levels. Earlier, the lifting of water from the underground sources used to be done by devices where the motive power used to be provided by men or animals, and these could not provide enough power to draw down their levels. During the last fifty years or so, the drawing of water is done through diesel and electric pumps and these are leading to using of too much water. This has led to a steady increase in the demand for water, including the three countries of China, India and United States which supply fifty percent of the world' grain. In addition to these countries, the water levels are also falling in other countries. This is leading to a situation where the cutbacks in grain production are inevitable, and almost at about the same time. This is being combined with a high growth in population of 70 million a year. (Time for plan B)

It is almost impossible to predict when the growth in food production will drop below the increase in demand due to the growth of population and that will certainly drive up prices. This will lead to a situation when food will become an issue of national security, and this is told by the slowdown of growth in harvest, dropping water levels, and increasing temperatures. The last time grain prices started rising was in 1972-74, and then there was immediately the start of a politics of food scarcity. The countries which were then exporting grain started restricting exports so that the price of grain within the country did not rise. The poorest people in the world now spend 70% of their income on their food grains, and when this rises, it would be a real threat to their existence. If the food prices in the world were to double in a short time, these people would be impoverished almost immediately. They would then naturally blame their governments, and the governments of these low-income, grain-importing countries are likely to be affected. (Time for plan B)

There as always been a natural variation in rainfall, temperature and related conditions in certain parts of the world leading to food insecurity due to variation of agricultural production. This is clearly observed in certain parts of the world like the Sahel, northeast Brazil, central Asia and Mexico - more than other parts of the world. There are also extremes of climate through unusual effects like floods, drought, and storms, which have a high visual impact. The second type of effects has far lesser impact on agricultural production than the first type. The variations in climate and increases of extreme climate may both occur due to the prevalent global warming. (Agriculture and climate change: FAO's role) These changes in climate for a large number of years could effect agricultural production in many ways, and they would all increase food insecurity for the most vulnerable people in the world. It would become impossible to predict the coming weather and climate, and that would make planning for agriculture more difficult. (Agriculture and climate change: FAO's role)

The variations in climate will increase, and that would lead to greater difficulties in farming of difficult terrain. The extremes in climate will increase and it would be impossible to provide for them. The agricultural lands near the coasts would be submerged by the rising sea, as also the nearby low islands. The mangroves and tropical forests would be submerged leading to a loss of substantial amount of fragile environments. The geographical positions of suitable climates for agriculture would shift, and this would lead to a lot of changes and threaten natural vegetation and fauna. The existing imbalance between the food production in the cool and temperate regions and the tropical and subtropical regions would be even more pronounced. In addition to the direct impact on agriculture, the situation regarding fish and seafood also will change and this will damage the existing activities in fishing. The changes in climate will send pests and vector borne diseases into areas that they were not known before. (Agriculture and climate change: FAO's role)

There will be an initial automatic series of responses to climate changes from agriculture. Part of these changes will arise from the biological reactions and the other set will be done by the farmers and the markets. The impact in agriculture will cause heavy damages to some individual plants or animals, while causing gains to others due to the global network. For the individual plant, or in the individual field, the impact of changes in climate will be largely affected through the increase in CO2 in the atmosphere, as also the other changes in the environment. 2 Food and Agricultural Organization is now working on two different levels for reduction in the impact of regular climate variations and climate changes on the human food security. The Organization is trying to increase the ability of the farmer to cope with changes. They are encouraging an approach to agricultural development without regrets. (Agriculture and climate change: FAO's role)

They are trying to give the farmers options to increase agricultural flexibility and efficiency under the changing conditions. When the conditions will change, this sort of attitudes will help the farmers. Their promotion of practices in farming that help overcome variations in climate, like the usage of drought resistant crop strains, better usage of existing water, etc. will also help them adapt to the changed situations. FAO is also working with the national decision-makers and other scientists so that improvement of monitoring of existing conditions and the changes that are taking place can be better monitored. This is expected to support development with foresight between the choice of monitoring agriculture production for planning or for early warning purposes (GIEWS). They are using satellite technology (ARTEMIS) and agro-meteorological tools, developing early warning systems for animal and plant diseases that are effective (EMPRES), and monitoring the environmental conditions and changes in the climate (GTOS, AFRICOVER, SD dimensions Global Climate Maps). (Agriculture and climate change: FAO's role)

Real commodity prices have fallen over the last half a century by over two thirds, and this is causing a lot of concern for the producers who are worried about their own economic viability and competitiveness. This has been countered during the last half a century by a steady 1% growth a year in productivity, which has helped in terms of reduction of production costs and prices. At the same time, this trend is maintaining a lot of pressure on the farmers to ensure the increase in the productivity of their farms and see to the cost reduction in production. This is a highly competitive market environment, and the producers are worried about any increase in costs or limitation of markets as threats for their survival in the field. Regulations that may increase their costs like the efforts to control the consequence of soil erosion, usage of agricultural chemicals, livestock wastes, resistances to and the restrictions on the use of genetically modified crops are all viewed by the producers as threats in line with the extreme weather or climate conditions like droughts or floods, new pests and the development of resistance by pests to the methods used by the producers to control the pests. When the climate changes in the future, all these will affect the production along with the climate. (Agriculture Sector)

The existing socioeconomic effects often occur faster than the changes in the environment that cause the socioeconomic changes, and thus it is difficult to forecast them. There has been a one meter rise in the sea level in the past hundred years, and the resulting changes in socioeconomics are clear, but the other impacts of the changes in the global climate are not so obvious, or measure. Godden and Adams (1991) have examined the impact of the changes in the world climate on the economics of Australia in "The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect and Australian Agriculture." Their conclusion was that some sections of agriculture had shown a drop in productivity, but there had been an overall growth in agriculture as there was a high increase in the foreign demand for Australian agricultural produce. (Social and Economic Effects of Climate Change)

One of the effects of climate changes has been the damage to the fish and prawn breeding grounds of Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand according to "The Potential Socio-economic Effects of Climate Change" by Parry, Magalhaes and Nih (1992) under a United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) study. An estimate of the effects of climate change on the use of two alternative crop strategies has been made in "An Empirical Study of the Economic Effects of Climate Change on World Agriculture" by Kane, Raelly and Tobey (1992). According to their study, there was estimated to be changes in the prices of agricultural commodities due to the changes in yields. The prices were also affected by the changes in economic welfare due to changes in world patterns of consumption and production of these products. (Social and Economic Effects of Climate Change)

There has been a great change in the socioeconomic structure of the Northern Great Plains due to climate changes and variations and this may be treated as a test case. This clearly is disturbing as the future climate changes and variations are expected to have a similar great effect on the regions of the world depending on agriculture. 8 One of the predictions shows that there is likely to be increased amount of hunger and poverty around the world. The changed and continuously changing weather patterns are expected to impede economic activity, especially in the people dependant on natural resources. The livelihoods of people depending on farming, fishing and forestry may see their occupations destroyed by low rainfall, degradation of soils and deterioration of forests and fishing grounds. (Impacts of climate change)

The poorer sections would suffer more, as they would have less choice in responding to these changes. They are unlikely to have the capacity for changing over to new crops which would use less water, or to pump more water for irrigation, to get hold of more land for cultivation, or even adopt new techniques to get more fish. The solutions suggested above typically use expensive items like machinery or high cost energy. The poor in the urban areas are also likely to be affected. Their residences and the basic structures of the city near their residences may not be able to withstand the fury of the changed and violent weather. The outside investors may decide to avoid such areas or leave them out altogether, and this would cause more trouble to the poor. (Impacts of climate change)

Within the different elements of the population among the poor, the women and children would be the worst affected. This is because the women tend to be less mobile than men in terms of geography and occupation, and this would cause them difficulties to leave their farms and forests. Families would find it difficult to last as the men would move away. This was seen during the African drought of the 1980s when there were 150 million victims and three fourths of them were women and children. (Impacts of climate change) Diseases would also affect the children more. Along with the rise in temperatures, the ozone layers are affected and more ultraviolet rays are likely to come through. These would permit dangerous pathogens to increase but reduce the human ability to counter them. This is likely to harm the weaker more - the young and malnourished children, the ill, the old and the unsheltered. This may also give rise to mass migrations. When the climate changes severely, there would be a lot of movement of refuges and they would emigrate from the most affected regions to the less vulnerable areas. This movement within nations would be from rural areas to urban areas and from the South to the North in the world. These would also cause conflict in the social and political levels, and ultimately the people who are displaced and disposed will even lose their culture. (Climate: Impacts on Human resources- Political)

To stop this we must stop the damaging trends that we have started. The changes set in motion will lead to many environmental refugees - due to exhausted water and soil, and escaping from the advancing deserts and rising seas. Our entire civilization is being squeezed today between the deserts growing in the interior of the continents and the seas engulfing the borders of our land, and the resultant refugees will be not in millions but in tens of millions. 11 The world will thus be living in a constant situation of emergency and the resultant victims are likely to be forced to adopt methods of living which are ecologically and socially unsustainable within the large cities where they will be forced to move. Their lives will become totally disrupted as a result, and this in turn will cause other social and political problems which may have as large impacts which caused the environmental problems. (Impacts of climate change)

These will cause changes in the political structures of the regions, originating from the first changes in climate and variations of climate. When the urban areas have even more people, the politicians will be more concerned with urban concerns. The remaining prime farm land will be subjected to even more competition at the urban fringes, and these will be putting even more emotional stress. Earlier the political support used to go to the farmers and the farm groups from the state legislatures, but when the movements change the physical situation, the supports may shift. (Climate: Impacts on Human resources- Political) The entire world will move into an unfamiliar situation as human beings would be stepping beyond the limits that the world can provide them in support. It is likely that the citizens will lose their faith in their governments being able to overcome the problems and this will lead to a breakdown and social anarchy. It is already happening in certain countries like Somalia, Afghanistan and the Democratic Republic of Congo. (Time for plan B)

For the 21st century, agriculture requires that it may be integrated as a total system with the components of environment, society and economy. Only this will lead to development for meeting the needs of the present generation and also take care of the next generation. It is now estimated that the people of the world will increase by almost 3 billion in the next fifty years, and most of this growth will be in the developing countries. This will happen in spite of the fact that even today, some 800 million people go hungry every day and another billion live a day on less than one dollar. This is the food insecurity and poverty that affects one-fourth of the population of the world. It shows clearly that we have not been able to take the necessary corrective actions in spite of the tremendous scientific progress and economic developments that are being made now. To meet our food security and poverty dangers, we must ensure that proper agricultural and rural development take place. (Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability)

The normal style or Plan A of business as usual is not working. We have to take the necessary corrective actions under time pressure, and it is clear that present civilization itself is in trouble. The good part of the news is that we know today that there are solutions to the difficulties that are being faced now, but our difficulties are that we cannot take small, incremental responses with fear. These will only make the difficulties balloon up until they burst. The alternative strategy, or Plan B. is required, and this is a reordering of priorities and total restructuring of the total, global economy. Only that can prevent the total system from collapsing, and the global economic bubble from bursting. This will require a lot of cooperation from throughout the world so that stability is achieved in population, climate, water tables and soil- and all at high speeds, on a war footing. (Time for plan B)