Global warming causes and environmental effects

¶ … global warming. The reality of global warming has raised alarm bells as well as intensive debate in many sectors of contemporary society. The implications of global warming and climate change are widespread and complex and affect every sector of modern society -- including the social, economic and political dimensions.

The situation becomes even more problematic when we consider that we live in a world where international isolation and barriers between countries have been largely eradicated through modern travel and communications technologies. The effects and consequences of global warming therefore cannot be understood in isolation. This is an important factor to consider in terms of the present study. While environmental problems have always existed, they are"…increasingly global in nature because interdependence and globalization connect people and issues in new and different ways…" (Balaam and Veseth 432) As a result these climatic and environmental issues now become, "…more difficult to deal with than any single nation's ability to solve them. (Balaam and Veseth 432)

In 1990 a panel of eminent scientists concluded after a lengthy investigation that global warming was a reality that could not be doubted. The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPPC) stated that the main reason for global warming was increased emissions of carbon into the atmosphere. (Balaam and Veseth 444)

Among the many predicted effects of global warming is the social impact on aspects such as human health, migration and the displacement of people and resources. As will be discussed in this paper, these aspects also have implications for the economy and politics.

The issue of global warming has resulted in some dire prognostications for the future. It has been linked to factors, such as shortages of food supplies and the increase in infectious diseases, as well as changes in the various biological ecosystems of the world which are already experience problem in terms of human health. For example, the World Health Organization (WHO) has predicted that by 2030 climatic changes will cause the deaths of 300, 000 people annually. (D'emilio) It is estimated that in Asia a rise in the sea level coupled with an increase in the intensity of tropical cycles "would displace tens of millions of people in low-lying coastal areas & #8230; trigger decreases in agricultural productivity and diminish food security." (D'emilio) Disasters like these also apply to Africa where global warming could cause a decrease in the grain yields as well as floods and drought which would have a devastating effect on human health. These aspects all have an impact on social, economic and political factors internationally.

2. Social Issues

2.1. Overview of the social issues

The most dramatic and immediate effect of global warming is an increase in the levels of the oceans of the world. According to the commercial forecaster, Accu-Weather, "Global air temperatures as measured by land-based weather stations show an increase of about 0.45 degrees Celsius over the past century." (Krause) There are other indications that global warming is in fact taking place. A wide range of evidence suggests that there has been a significant rise in temperature over time since the start of last century. For example, " Since the beginning of the 20th century, the mean surface temperature of the earth has increased by about 1.1° F (0.6°Celsius)" and " Over the last 40 years, which is the period with most reliable data, the temperature increased by about 0.5 " F (0.2-0.3°Celsius)." (Global Environment ) It has been found that the amount of warming during the Twentieth Century was greater than at any time during the past 400 -- 600 years. (Global Environment)

These and other factors clearly indicate that global warming is a reality and that this translates into increasing sea levels. As the ice-caps melt the temperatures rise, causing sea level increases. This has a wide range of important social implications. "Many are agreed that climate change may be one of the greatest threats facing the planet. Recent years show increasing temperatures in various regions, and/or increasing extremities in weather patterns. (Shah) These implications point to the complex relationship between human activities and the natural environment.

The following quotation suggests that the increase in global temperatures has as multivalent effects on human health and society and different repercussions for each region of the world that is affected. "…climate change affects local environments differently, according to characteristics of local geography. Further, the vulnerability of each human population varies as a function of locality, level of material resources, technological assets and type of governance." (McMichael and Woodruff) In other words, the effects of global warming are not uniform but could have varied effects dependent on the areas and on variables such as infrastructure, economy etc.

One of the most important ways in which global warming affects society is the potential increase in the spread of infectious diseases. An increase in temperature as well as subsequent changes in climate and environments can increase the risk of various infectious diseases -- especially those diseases that already occur in warmer climates. An example of this is the increase of tick-borne (viral) encephalitis in Sweden as a result of the succession of warmer winters of the past twenty years. (McMichael and Woodruff)

The effect of global warming on the environment can also have a negative impact agriculturally and consequently on the provision of food and nutrition necessary for human health. It is estimated that "Regional climate stress on agriculture may mean up to 300 million additional victims of malnutrition world-wide each year. " (Sustainable Living) In addition, temperature changes also result in floods and droughts which are becoming more severe as global warming increases. Another important factor affecting health is that these changes might also affect safe drinking water.

… abnormal storms and flooding that have devastated many communities across America in recent years, may also become more common. As the number and severity of these events increase they will pose not only an immediate threat to human health and well being, but also bring dangerous long-term consequences.

(Warming Master File)

Pollution as a result of global warming is also another factor or consider in terms of social consequences. Air pollution, for example, especially when there is a sudden and widespread change in climate and temperature, can result in a number of negative health issues. Adverse weather conditions also increase pollution, particularly through increased temperatures. Hotter temperatures can also increase the likelihood of "secondary air pollutants such as ground-level ozone." (First Annual Science and Policy Research Conference) All of these aspects have repercussion in terms of society and the economy

2.2. Specific aspect of an increase of sea level.

The impact of increasing sea levels has been noted in a report by The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The report entitled Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region examines "…multiple opportunities for governments and coastal communities to plan for and adapt to rising sea levels." (Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region)

Among the findings of the report are the following.

Rising water levels are already an important factor in submerging low-lying lands, eroding beaches, converting wetlands to open water, and exacerbating coastal flooding. All of these effects will be increased if the rate of sea-level rise accelerates in the future.

Most coastal wetlands in the mid-Atlantic would be lost if sea level rises one meter in the next century. Even a 50-cm rise would threaten most wetlands along the Eastern Shore of Chesapeake Bay.

Possible responses to sea level rise include seawalls, bulkheads, and other shoreline armoring; elevating buildings and land surfaces (including beaches and wetlands); and allowing shorelines to change and moving structures out of harm's way. Those three approaches have very different environmental and social impacts. (Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region)

The report also found that, "A substantial acceleration of sea-level rise is likely to increase both the costs and environmental impacts of actions taken in response." (Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region) An

Important factor that the report highlights is that that there are still existing policies that prevent the implementation of measures that would help to prevent the negative social effects of increased sea levels.

One of the most devastating effects of increased sea levels is the displacement of the population as a result of the inundation of low-lying areas. With an increase in sea-level people, people may have to find safety and residence elsewhere and this can result in a refugee situation, with concomitant social problems. As one study notes, "This problem of land loss due to relative sea level rise is pervasive in coastal areas, and is aggravated by high levels of local subsidence." (Impacts of sea level rise)

Many studies point out that developed counties with large coastal populations are especially at risk. "…developing countries with large populations in or near deltas and other low-lying areas are especially vulnerable to future sea level rise." (Impacts of sea level rise) In these areas, such as India and Indonesia, even a small increase in sea level could result in forced migration with resultant economic hardship. The point should also be reiterated that in our interconnected world, the economic and social problems of one area or region have an impact on other countries. This is also related to the fact that many of the suugested means of dealing with global warming would contradict and even negate economic policies that many industrialized nations already have in place. This aspect will be expanded on in the following sections.

3.

Political Issues

The response from governments to the problem and reality of global warming has not always been positive or enthusiastic. The Reagan administration and the First Bush Administration in the United States tended to be politically optimistic about the global environment. Governments in developed countries have in general not been particularly responsive to calls to curtail emission and find solution. They reason for this is that environmental concerns are often contrasted with and weighted up against the needs and demands of the economy. (Balaam and Veseth 435) This is related to the view that serious involvement in efforts to curtail global warming and other environmental issues are "too costly" and would interfere with the viability of the economy. (Balaam and Veseth 435) This ambivalence from many governments to global warming has become a central political problem in the present century as well.

In the past few decades been many political attempts to deal with environmental problems in an international and multilateral manner. A good example is the Earth Summit Rio de Janeiro in 1992. A wide range of representatives attended the summit. These included 178 national delegates, 115 heads of state and more than 15, 0000 environmental NGOs. ( Balaam and Veseth 436) This meeting resulted in an agreement to reduce greenhouse emissions into the atmosphere, as well as treaty on biological diversity. It must be rembered that this international agreement took place before the latest findings on global warming had been scientifically ratified.

However, the United States did not play a major role in the application of this agreement and was considered by many countries to be reticent in playing a role in line with its power and international status. For example, the first Bush administration called only for voluntary cut in emission, as it was felt that this aspect would hurt the economy. (Balaam and Veseth 436) This typifies the conflict still evident today in politics between the need to satisfy or deal with internationals pressure to protect the environment and reduce global warming and the desire to be economically viable and competitive.

A central example of international attempts to deal with the issued was the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. This was essentially an attempt to build on previous international environmental agreements. However, the second Bush Administration withdrew for this Protocol in 2001. This administration claimed that the treaty would cost America 400 billion dollars and more than a million jobs. (Balaam and Veseth 437)

This withdrawal was also due to an increasing skepticism from many quarters about the validity of global warming and the seriousness of its effects. In recent years the issue of global warming has been brought to the forefront of the political and environmental agenda by the scientific finding that global warming is a reality which will certainly have devastating effects social and economic life of the planet in the near future if it is not aggressively curtailed. This view has been underscored by high profile environmentalists like Al Gore.

To cope with increasing criticism of its approach to the problem, the Bush Administration introduced a mixed policy approach to the issue. This was in essence a series of preventative measures, which included efforts to cut auto and industrial plant emissions. (Balaam and Veseth 444)

Another way of dealing with the problem is the introduction of new and different types of fuels. These have been introduced in an effort to reduce carbon emission without harming the economy. This also includes the development and testing of bio-fuels and hybrid vehicles. It is also important to note that more recently the Obama Administration has made new efforts to revitalize the ailing international drive to combat global warming. As a recent report states, "Barack Obama & #8230; pledged to reduce America's greenhouse gas emissions as he also announced he will travel to next month's climate change summit in Copenhagen." ( Alberts)

4. Economic Issues

As referred to there is a general agreement that global warming constitutes a significant threat to life on this planet. However there is at the same time certain reluctance on the part of many developed countries to institute measures that may be sen to harm their economies. As lone report succinctly states, "The United States plus a few other countries, and many large corporations, have been against climate change treaties due to the fear of the threat to their economy and profits if they have to make substantial changes." ( Shah)

As has been suggested, the reduction of carbon emissions would in effect mean the slowing down of industrial output and this in turn would mean that the economy might be adversely affected. In order to understand the economic dilemma in relation to measures aimed at curbing global warming, the importance of oil in the international context should be briefly examined.

Oil and fuel are major causes of carbon emission. However, oil is also at the center of the global economy. The oil or petroleum industry is related to the petroleum market internationally. In understanding the key issues in international economics and oil one has to understand the importance of oil as an energy source. Oil drives the economies of the world and is related to almost every industry and economic activity. This does not only refer to the need for fuel for transport in modern economies but also to the many ways in which oil usage and consumption impacts on particular countries and economies. If one takes into account the contemporary reality of globalization, then the impact of oil becomes more evident. The importance of oil for the international economy and industry can be seen for the following figures. In terms of world production oil averaged about 83.02 million barrels per day in 2004 compared to about 74 million barrels per day 2002. (Some interesting oil industry statistics)

On the other hand oil and its products contribute to the problem of environmental pollutions. This problem is summarized by the fact that; " Oil is a Fossil fuel. Burnt fossil fuels release Carbon dioxide (CO2) into the Earth's atmosphere and thus contribute to Global warming." (Petroleum industry) Therefore, the economic situation can be summed up by the fact that "Cutting back on the production of greenhouse gases would mean major economic and political adjustments along with lifestyle changes in the industrialized nations." ( Balaam and Veseth 445)