Territorial Control and Geographic Distribution of Terrorist Attacks: A Comparative Study of IS and FARC

Introduction

One of the critical aspects of understanding terrorist activities is examining the relationship between the territorial control of insurgent groups and the geographic distribution of their attacks. This research looks into this relationship by comparing two ideologically and geographically distinct groups: the Islamic State (IS) and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). IS is known for its jihadist ideology in the Middle East as well as its brutal tactics, while FARC has its roots in Marxist-Leninist ideology and has used guerrilla warfare against the Colombian government in South America. This comparative study explores how ideological differences influence the strategies of territorial control and the consequent patterns of terrorist attacks.

The primary research question guiding this study is: How does the territorial control of ideologically different insurgent groups, specifically IS and FARC, influence the geographic distribution of their terrorist attacks in conflict zones? This question helps in understanding the spatial strategies of these groups and it may also contribute to a better understanding of counter-terrorism and peacekeeping efforts globally.

Indeed, ultimately, the significance of this research will lie in its potential to contribute to the fields understanding of terrorist strategies. The comparison of IS and FARC means that this study will show how different ideologies (beliefs and culture) shape approaches to territorial control and the execution of terrorist activities. This understanding could help policymakers, military strategists, and humanitarian organizations in developing targeted interventions and preventive measures. This comparative analysis could also add to the academic discourse on terrorism by filling a gap in literature where a direct comparison between jihadist and Marxist-Leninist insurgent groups in terms of territorial control and attack patterns is scarce (Castan Pinos & Radil, 2020).

Literature Review

Ideological Underpinnings

Ash (2018) provides a critical analysis of how rebel groups, including those with jihadist ideologies, choose locations for their attacks, emphasizing the role of territorial control. In contrast, Carter et al. (2022) offer insights into the spatial patterns of separatist violence, which can be paralleled with FARC's tactics in Colombia.

Castan Pinos and Radil (2020) challenge the prevailing notion that terrorist groups are generally indifferent to territorial control and propose a new conceptual model to understand the importance of territory in terrorism. They introduce two key concepts: Sovereignty Claims over Territory (SCOT) and Effective Control of Territory (ECOT). SCOT refers to the ultimate territorial aims of a group, while ECOT relates to the group's actual ability to exert influence over a territory. By contrasting these dimensions, the authors develop archetypes of territorially-motivated terrorism, arguing against the common discourse of non-territorial terrorism. They apply this model to analyze groups like the Islamic State, ETA, and FARC-EP, demonstrating that territory remains a central factor in their motivations.

Territorial Control Mechanisms

De la Calle and Snchez-Cuenca (2015) look into the relationship between territorial control and violent tactics, and give a perspective on types of terrorism regarding territorial aims and objectives. With respect to the operational methods of IS and FARC, the perspective helps explain tactics: their argument is that groups with territorial control engage more in direct warfare, while those without it resort to terrorism. This could help to explain the guerrilla tactics of FARC and its evolution in strategy over time, especially as they lost and gained territorial control.

Elden (2012) provides a theoretical exploration of the relationship between terrorism, territory, and space, or rather the space of exception concept. Eldens (2012) research explains how terrorist groups use the absence of territorial integrity and sovereignty to their advantage in the geographic distribution of attacks. For example, when there is little sovereign power over space, terror training camps are more likely to emerge. This is definitely seen in the Middle East with IS. Likewise, the study by Cengiz et al. (2022) gives an in-depth analysis of the operational and strategic model of IS and its influence on global terrorism trends, including controlling territory, spreading ideology, creating provincial branches in different regions, inspiring lone actors, and generating revenue.

Geographic Factors

Medina and Hepner (2013) give an overview of the spatial aspects of international terrorism and the geographic distribution of attacks. Their analysis maps out the strategic considerations behind the choice of locations for attacks. On the other hand, Salehyan (2007) introduces the concept of transnational rebels, which is particularly relevant for understanding IS's operations that often cross-national borders. This contrasts with FARC's primarily localized operations within Colombia, providing a clear comparative angle.

Tollefsen and Buhaug (2015) discuss the role of geographic inaccessibility in insurgency, a factor that has inflenced FARC's operations in the remote jungles of Colombia. In contrast, IS's operations in urban centers in Iraq and Syria present a different situation, where territorial control is more visible and strategically significant. Findley and Young (2012) moreover address the conceptual challenges in distinguishing between terrorism and civil war by using a spatial and temporal analysis to clarify these distinctions. They explain how insurgent violence, including terrorist attacks, is distributed across time and space and describe a framework in which terrorism is likely to occur prior to civil war in Latin America and following civil war in other parts of the world. This is of particular interest in the comparison of FARC and IS, as FARC is geographically situated in Latin America and IS in the Middle East.

Response to External Factors

Aid as a tool against insurgency is a topic analyzed by Sexton (2016) who examines insurgency in contested and controlled territories. Sextons (2016) work is particularly relevant for understanding how external interventions can influence the strategies of groups like FARC, which have experienced various degrees of territorial control and external support. Sextons (2016) argument is useful in framing the juxtaposition of the dynamics of IS, which has relied more on self-funding and less on external state support, with the dynamics of FARC, which as a Marxist rebel group is open to external funding networks. Likewise, along this same thread is the work of Staniland (2012), who describes the interactions between states and insurgent groups, and sheds light on the political dimensions of territorial control. The perspective of Staniland (2012) is that politics is very much a part of the relationship between terrorism and territorial control. FARC's interactions with the Colombian government and local populations, as well as IS's establishment of a 'caliphate' and its governance strategies, take on added significance in the light of Stanilands (2012) findings.

Richter and Barrios Sabogal (20230 also focus on the post-conflict scenario in Colombia, particularly the reintegration of former FARC-EP combatants. They highlight some of the challenges in the peace process, noting that the political dynamics at the national and local levels still impact the situation. The study uses concepts from Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR) and rebel governance studies to understand these dynamics. The authors argue that the interaction patterns between local communities and ex-combatants help to explain the local-level peace process outcomes. They categorize post-war orders as either clustered or entrenched, which is useful in understanding where rebel groups like FARC-EP had established strong governance structures.

Salazar et al. (2019) examine the impact of the FARC-EP's demobilization on violence in Tumaco in Colombia. Despite the national reduction in violence following the peace process, Tumaco experienced a surge in violence post-demobilization. Salazar et al. (2019) use a historical and socio-geographic perspective to analyze the evolution of FARC and the drug economy in the region. It is a compelling perspective as it relates to the specific features of violence in the post-conflict context of Tumaco and the drug trade.

Research on IS specifically can be found in Chandra (2020), who looks into the relationship between illicit drug trafficking and the financing of terrorism. Chandra (2020) shows that a significant portion of organized crime revenue, estimated at around $650...…its global jihadist ideology and use of brutal tactics, counter-terrorism efforts might focus on international intelligence sharing, disrupting financial networks, and countering online radicalization. In contrast, counter-terrorism strategies for FARC should consider its historical context, focusing on negotiation and addressing socio-economic disparities that fuel the insurgency. This tailored approach is essential for the effectiveness and sustainability of counter-terrorism interventions.

Policy Recommendations

The study also hints at the role of underlying political, social, and economic factors in fueling insurgency and terrorism. For IS, this implies the need for international cooperation to address the broader ideological battle against jihadism, including efforts to counter extremist narratives and provide support for post-conflict reconstruction in affected regions. For FARC, the emphasis should be on addressing socio-economic inequalities and political grievances in Colombia, including land reform, political inclusion, and economic development, to prevent the resurgence of similar insurgencies.

Preventive Strategies

Understanding the territorial dynamics of these groups helps to show the importance of early interventions in areas at risk of insurgent control. For example, there are regions with weak state presence and high socio-economic grievances. Knowing this can help in preempting the establishment of insurgent strongholds. Preventive strategies, such as community engagement, strengthening local governance, economic development and education, can be helpful in reducing the spread and influence of groups like IS and FARC.

Counter-Terrorism Strategies

The insights into how different insurgent groups use territorial control can guide targeted and counter-terrorism strategies by giving a better understanding of the ideological motivations behind these groups, which can aid in predicting potential targets and preempting attacks. This knowledge can help with secrity agencies in the development of strategic responses that are proactive and preventive.

Humanitarian Efforts

The mapping of the geographic distribution of attacks by these groups is invaluable for humanitarian organizations. With this information, they can better plan their interventions in conflict zones, focusing on the most vulnerable areas and populations. This strategic planning can potentially reduce the risk to civilians and ensure that aid reaches those most in need in a timely and efficient manner.

Conclusion

The new theoretical framework developed in this study offers an approach to understanding the relationship between territorial control and the geographic distribution of terrorist attacks. The comparison of the operations of the Islamic State (IS) and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) shows how different insurgent groups utilize territory in their strategies and what the resultant patterns of violence look like. The framework emphasizes the importance of considering the specific historical, political, and social contexts in which insurgent groups operate. The study also shows the dynamic nature of territorial control and its impact on insurgent activities and how changes in territorial control can lead to shifts in the nature, frequency, and location of terrorist attacks. Plus, by looking at two ideologically and operationally distinct groups, the framework demonstrates the value of comparative analysis in conflict studies, providing a broader perspective on insurgent strategies and counter-terrorism efforts.

Limitations and Future Research

One key limitation is the framework itself, which did not include the role of the drug trade in funding for terrorism. This could be a factor that impacts insurgent operations. The framework primarily focuses on territorial control, potentially overlooking other factors such as international support, ideological appeal, and technological advancements that can also influence insurgent strategies.

Future research could address these limitations by incorporating a wider range of data sources, including classified intelligence and on-the-ground reports. Studies could also expand the comparative analysis to include more insurgent groups, offering a more diverse and comprehensive understanding of insurgent strategies. Furthermore, integrating quantitative methods with qualitative analysis could enhance the robustness of the findings.

Concluding Thoughts

Developing new theoretical approaches to understand complex phenomena in conflict studies is crucial for advancing our knowledge and enhancing policy and intervention strategies. The framework presented in this study contributes to this goal by offering a structured approach to analyzing the interplay between territorial control and terrorist activities. It not only…